Windy, wet at times and very mild – Thursday 21st December 2023 – (Monday) Christmas Day 2023

Hi all,

We are in for a spell of very windy weather. Gales or even severe gales in exposed places. The low pressure to our northeast has been named Storm Pia by the Danish Met Institute. It’s expected to be a windy 48 hours.

Weather warning in place for strong winds on Thursday up till 9pm

Christmas. Will it be white? Despite a few hints last week at something colder for the festive day, this has now backed off, so a mild-ish and breezy Christmas Day looks the most likely outcome.

A turbulent Thursday with a risk of gusts to 70mph in parts of the region

Thursday: Storm Pia to our northeast and a large area of high pressure out in the Atlantic will mean a real squeeze in the isobars across the region. Cloudy to start with some rain, then turning showery with some bright spells. It will be very windy throughout especially to the east of the hills and also during the first half of the day, with a warning in place. Widely 40-50mph and possibly 60-70mph on the eastern side of the Pennines. Max 10°C Min 7°C

So close to the cold air…..Friday remains mild on the thermometer

Friday: Rain to start which will hopefully ease away to the east into the afternoon. Still very windy, with 40mph gusts and still mild for the time of year. Max 10°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Mild, windy and some more rain to come.

Saturday: Generally cloudy and windy with patchy rain or drizzle, especially on western-facing hills. Very mild. Max 12°C Min 8°C

Christmas Eve (Sunday): Cloudy with pulses of rain, some drier spells in between, brought in on a steady southwesterly breeze. This airflow will bring some very mild temperatures once again. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Christmas Day (Monday): A better day in prospect. Earlier showers should ease away to a breezy day with some sunny spells. It will be a little cooler but there is no chance of snow this year I’m afraid. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Outlook: Remaining quite unsettled with bouts of rain or showers at times, coming in on the Jet Stream from the west. Temperatures will remain around average or maybe just a little bit above for the time of year before turning a little bit cooler as we head towards the end of 2023. No sign of any significant cold or snow.

Thanks as always, for stopping by to read my weekly blog. I hope you enjoyed it this year and find it useful. I hope you all have a lovely Christmas and I wish you all the best in 2024.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of December 2023 at 5:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Met Office warning.

Not exclusively dry but not as wet as recently and turning milder. Chance of a White Christmas – Thursday 14th December 2023 – Sunday 17th December 2023

Hi all,

Christmas is coming and of course, the talk of a White Christmas is on everyone’s lips. No doubt you’ll see the over-the-top nonsense in the mainstream media but how are our chances looking, realistically?

A cold plunge in the run-up to Christmas Day will get our White Christmas hopes up

The latter part of this week, will be mild and frosts are not expected. It’s later next week that eyes turn to the north or northwest to the possibility of colder air drifting down across the UK, increasing the chance of some snow. It won’t be severe cold but cold enough for some wintry precipitation. Remember we only need one snowflake to call it a White Christmas officially.

GFS Model: This currently goes out to Christmas Day and shows snow-cover quite widely
ECMWF HRES Model: As far as we currently can go is up to the 23rd and snow-cover is less widespread but depths are higher highlighting wintry showers on a NNW’ly.

Thursday: Cloudy to start with patchy rain moving west to east. It should become drier and eventually a bit brighter during the morning. Odd shower possible into the afternoon. Less cold. Max 9°C Min 3°C

Friday: Cloudy with a few bright spells here and there. Windy but this wind will be dragging in much milder air as the day goes on. It should be dry at least which is what we need right now. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Weekend: Mostly cloudy with brisk winds.

Saturday: Low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to our south means we will be in between with gusty, moist southwesterly winds. These will bring a lot of cloud, perhaps some hill-drizzle but most areas dry. Mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Cloudy but dry to start. As the day progresses weather fronts to our northwest will slowly slip southeast bringing the increased risk of some light rain or drizzle. Windy and mild once again. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Outlook: We start the week wet and in the mild air still. As the week progresses, and it will be a windy week, the Jet Stream will slip further and further, albeit slowly, south. This will allow cooler and then cold air to slip down from the north or northwest. In the few days leading up to Christmas, wintry showers are likely, so some snow is possible on higher ground. If this lasts until Christmas Day, 2023 could well be officially a White Christmas. Look out for updates on X (@ChadWeather).

A change to colder air looks likely in the run-up to Christmas Day

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of December 2023 at 7:30pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Turning less cold but very wet – Thursday 7th December 2023 – Sunday 10th December 2023

Hi all,

November 2023 Stats:

A chilly and wet first half of November with only 1 dry day
A drier last third of November with a final week of cold and snowy conditions

After the cold spell, and some snow early in winter, the weather has slowly returned to what we are accustomed to. Rain. Less cold and a lack of sunshine. But today {Wednesday} was a brief cold and frosty day again. I certainly prefer those crisp blue skies even if it’s Baltic. And of course, I’m partial to a snowflake or ten.

A lovely day at Heaton Park on Wednesday

We saw snowfall this week, nice way to start winter, just like the old days

Thursday: Cloudy with pulses of heavy rain moving north-north-east, especially into the afternoon. Brisk winds will become gusty (35mph) with a slightly milder, but still feeling cold airflow after a cold 24 hours prior. Max 7°C Min 6°C

Friday: Low pressure in charge bringing bands of showery rain. The odd bright spell in between but like gold-dust. Breezy at times especially during showers. Milder. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Weekend: Dominated by unsettled conditions.

A soggy outlook with a couple of inches of rain expected over the next 7-10 days

Saturday: It’s a bit of a rinse and repeat, with showers or longer spells of rain coming in from the west after a dry start in the east. Remaining windy. Should sneak double-digits in a few favourable spots. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Yet more rain is expected. Mild and breezy. Groundhog day. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Outlook: Little change into the first half of next week with the Jet Stream bringing bouts of rain. Signs of something less wet, cooler and not as mobile from midweek with a ridge of high pressure building leading to some drier conditions but mist or fog likely as winds slacken.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of December 2023 at 4:15pm.
Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com