Drier and More Settled Weekend before ex-Hurricane Danielle – Thursday 8th September 2022 – Sunday 11th September 2022

Hi all,

Remember, for the latest forecasts and warnings, follow @ChadWeather on Twitter. When our weather is unsettled forecasting is tricky, so always keep an eye on Twitter for any updates.

Thundery showers have passed through the region this week.

Thursday: After a bright start with some sunny spells clouds will bubble up and with low pressure close by, heavy thundery showers will break out again. Risk of hail. Max 20°C

Friday: Cloudier and the area of low pressure that has dominated the UK’s weather since the start of the week will slip east and start to fill slightly. As it does so, there will be a fresh north to north-easterly wind and showers will develop again. Max 19°C

Weekend: Low pressure moves into Europe allowing a brief ridge of high pressure to slip in.

Saturday: Lighter winds and drier with bright or sunny spells. With more brightness around it will feel warmer. Chance of an isolated shower towards evening but most dry. Max 19°C

Sunday: The ridge of high pressure will be squeezed away as the remnants of ex-Hurricane Danielle will drift towards the UK. So a cloudier day with winds increasing from the south-east and becoming quite gusty. Showery rain for the latter half of the day or more likely, overnight. Humidity increasing. Max 20°C

Outlook: Little change. Showers or bands of rain, perhaps thundery at times and temperatures around normal. Bright spells too. So far, Autumn is making up for that decent summer.

August 2022 Stats

Max 30.4°C (12th)
Min 8.5°C (6th)
Av. 17.6°C
Wettest 13.6mm (2nd)
Av. Humidity 73%
Av. Barometer 1019.0 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 38mm (well below-average)
Rain Registered Days 10
Dry Days 21

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 7th of September 2022 at 7:20pm

Sunny spells, mostly dry and warm but no heatwave expected – Thursday 25th August 2022 – Bank Holiday Monday 29th August 2022

Hi all,

Apologies for no weekly blog last week. I had some family-time away in the Cotswolds. Back this week with some good news as high pressure brings us a settled period of weather, perfect timing for a Bank Holiday weekend. Temperatures will be pleasant and still feeling very warm in the sunshine.

UV levels are no longer HIGH, but MEDIUM, which is still strong enough for you to get sunburnt easily without sun-cream between 11am and 2pm.

Thursday: Fresher air has arrived so we lose the muggy and humid conditions that we’ve had this week. Early cloud will eventually break to a dry day with sunny spells. Max 21°C

Friday: Sunny spells for the morning. A band of cloud will arrive into the afternoon which just might be thick enough to give some patchy rain to the west, but the main thinking is most will stay dry. Max 20°C

Weekend: High pressure takes charge and temperatures rising a touch. Depending on the location of the high pressure we might sneak into the mid-20s for Bank Holiday Monday.

Saturday: Sunny spells and pleasant with warmer temperatures. A bit of cloud will bubble up here and there meaning we have the low risk of an isolated shower, especially towards the hills. Max 22°C

Isolated showers possible this weekend but a lot of dry weather with hazy sunny spells.

Sunday: Very similar to Saturday. Perhaps the sunshine turning hazy. Max 23°C

Bank Holiday Monday: A slight northeasterly breeze but plenty of dry weather and warm sunny spells once more. Even though the high pressure has drifted away a little it is still in charge. Max 23-25°C

Outlook: It seems that the high pressure will hold for most of the week but with a northeasterly airflow temperatures will range from 19-22°C. Plenty of dry weather, local shower possible. Again, a shift in wind direction could easily lift temperatures. More unsettled by the weekend looks on the cards but it could be short-lived with another high pressure following .

More unsettled for the opening weekend of September?

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 24th of August 2022 at 7:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Recent much-needed rain to ease, as August shows hints of warming and drying up once more – Thursday 4th August 2022 – Sunday 7th August 2022

Hi all,

Last month was the driest July in England since 1935 according to the data collated by the Met Office. I mentioned numerous times that we were on for well below-average rainfall and even though we ended the month with 11 consecutive days of measurable rainfall, we only saw 38% of the average. August has started with two days of rain and a total of 16mm already. But, despite a few showers, the main trend now is to much drier conditions once more and warmer temperatures into next week.

Some computer models are certainly hinting at a heatwave returning from the second week of August and perhaps lasting 7-10 days, especially in southern (mostly SE) England. I did post a chart on Twitter the other day to show that a model predicts 40°C again. Of course this is an outlier and very unlikely, or in my own words last time, “will never happen”. My thoughts are again very similar, I can’t see it happening but with temperatures into the 30s looking likely once more, never say never.

It’s been a muggy few days but we are slowly slipping into fresher air now and the next few days will see temperatures below-average but I’ll take that as it will be matched with brighter skies and drier weather. Before today we have seen welcome rainfall deliver 46mm on 13 consecutive days.

Dove Stone reservoir earlier last week in need of rain. Image: @Edwards_TE on Twitter.
Here’s how July 2022 compared to previous years

Thursday: Fresher air under a north-westerly airflow. Morning-showers move through quickly leaving a breezy day with sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Max 19°C

Friday: A similar day. No humid air so pleasant in the sunshine as we see a day of bright spells and isolated showers. Most staying dry. Max 18°C

Weekend: Slowly warmer with high pressure building.

Saturday: Perhaps disappointing cloud amounts at times, limiting the amount of sunshine but dry and bright. Max 18°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and warmer. Slight breeze, again from the north-west so not feeling humid. Max 21°C

Outlook: A lot of dry weather with high pressure in control. The position of the high and the wind-flow will be important and determine how quickly temperatures rise. Temperatures expected to be in the early-20s with the chance of them creeping into the mid-20s later in the week. The warmth could introduce more in the way of humid air and this could set off an isolated home-grown shower, otherwise warm and dry.

Not a lot of rainfall expected over the next 10 days – any rain will now be in the form of showers
Another heatwave on the cards for parts of England & Wales? How far north and west the heat gets is still uncertain but it does look favourable that mid-August will be very warm to hot.

July 2022 Stats

Max 36.6°C (19th)
Min 9.7°C (16th)
Av. 17.0°C
Wettest 10mm (24th)
Av. Humidity 75%
Av. Barometer 1021.2 hPa
Max Gust 21.9mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 35mm (38% of av.)
Rain Registered Days 15
Dry Days 16

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 3rd of August 2022 at 5:50pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Record-breaking temperatures during historic heatwave – Thursday 21st July 2022 – Sunday 24th July 2022

Hi all,

As a weather enthusiast, that was an exciting few days to witness the hot plume of air bring us the promised boiling but short-lived (thankfully!) heatwave. Records looked set to be smashed and they were, nationally and locally as the UK hit 40°C for the first time ever. When we will see those kind of temperatures again I wonder? The heatwave had all the perfect ingredients to fuel astonishing temperatures. It’ll happen again, and maybe sooner than you think, but for now, that was the Perfect Sauna and personally it wasn’t pleasant.

New National Records

Unbelievable values

NW England Extremes (official) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

NW England Maximum Temperatures (unofficial sites) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

NW England Highest Minimum Temperatures (unofficial sites) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

New Records at Chadderton HQ

Highest Daytime Maximum: 36.6°C (19/07/2022)
Highest Night-time Minimum: 22.6°C (night of 18/07/2022)
Highest Temperature Recorded between 6pm & 6am: 28.5°C (19/07/2022)

For now we’re back to normal values, but we are still experiencing very low rainfall totals (only 5.6mm for July). So far we have had 6 out of the 7 months of 2022 with lower-than-average rainfall. The environment needs rain, clearly highlighted with the amount of wildfires seen this week.

Thursday: Generally cloudy with a chance of some light patchy rain or drizzle. A lucky few will see bright spells into the afternoon but still we can’t rule out a shower. A warm night. Max 20°C

Friday: Cloudy with a weak weather-front across the region. Today was looking promising a few days ago but not now with showers likely, perhaps thundery, so the odd heavy shower but not the widespread rain we need. Max 18°C

Weekend: Low pressure approaching but temperatures rising.

Saturday: A brief ridge of high pressure leading to a dry morning with plenty of sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up into the afternoon and showers will feed in on a warm south-westerly wind, gusty at times. Humid. Max 22°C

Sunday: Bright spells and showers, risk of a thundery one as low pressure takes control. Warm or very warm in any sunshine and muggy but fresher later/overnight as a cold-front moves through. Max 23°C

Outlook: Fresher and still showery on Monday and breezy. High pressure to build, Tuesday to Thursday, so plenty of dry and quite warm weather with sunny spells. Looks like this will slip away for the weekend allowing showery conditions to return. Temperatures just below average or around average.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of July 2022 at 8:47pm
National Records & NW England Extremes: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Heatwave incoming with possible record-breaking temperatures – Thursday 14th July 2022 – Sunday 17th July 2022

Hi all,

It’s going to get hot again, but this time hotter and the lack of notable rain continues. The hottest day I’ve ever recorded is 33.4°C on the 25th of July 2019. This record is under threat; as is the UK’s highest ever recorded temperature, which sits at 38.7°C (July 2019). Not only will daytime records be on the line, but the night-time highest minimum temperatures will be too. Let’s face it. Some of us have to work and we don’t all have a swimming pool in our back garden to cool off in. Three days of grim conditions await.

Weather warning for extreme heat issued by the Met Office.
Details of extreme heat warning.

The heat looks set to break overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with a risk of some localised thunderstorms. The detail on this is still uncertain at this stage.

UV levels are high at this time of the year so it is easy to burn in the sunshine, especially 11am-3pm, regardless of the maximum temperature.

Thursday: We remain in average temperatures for the time of year with some sunny spells and just the chance of a shower, especially in northern parts. Breezy. Max 19°C

Friday: More in the way of cloud as a weakening weather-front brings some scattered showers. Windy at times. Max 18°C

Weekend: Becoming increasingly hot and humid.

Saturday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day. Likely to stay dry. Lighter winds and a warm night to follow. Max 24°C Min 15°C

Sunday: Hot and humid with some bright spells of sunshine. An afternoon breeze. A sticky night and starting to become uncomfortable for sleeping. Max 27°C Min 18°C

Normally my daily forecast ends here but I’ll throw a couple more days into the mix.

Monday: The impressive waft of hot air from southern origin continues to spread across the region. More in the way of sunshine is expected and with light winds it will be hard to find some relief to escape the heat. Max 31°C Min 19°C

Tuesday: Hot with sunny periods and temperatures getting close to the local record. Can’t rule out 35°C in a few spots in the east. Of course we are still 6 days away from this date and the heat can easily be downgraded or upgraded (more likely the former) so stayed tuned on social media for updates. Max 33°C Min 19°C

Possible maximum temperatures on Tuesday. Widespread uncomfortable heat.

The hot conditions look set to breakdown overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with thunderstorms looking possible, leaving Wednesday a showery day as cooler air arrives, dropping the temperature back down to a maximum of 23°C

Thundery breakdown into Wednesday looking more likely.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of July 2022 at 6:25pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & The Met Office

Showery but will summery conditions arrive later next week? – Thursday 30th June 2022 – Sunday 3rd July 2022

Hi all,

Let’s be honest, the gardens need rain (and my local golf course) so showers are welcome and we have more on the menu. Temperatures are below average for the time of year, and even with drier conditions into early next week, they will still remain below par. The signs are there though for warmer conditions and rather than two single hot days like we’ve experienced so far this ‘summer’, we could be in for a lengthy spell of summer sunshine and warmth.

Thursday: Sunny spells but scattered showers. These will be quite a downpour if you catch one which could be thundery with hail. Max 19°C

A showery Thursday, especially later with a risk of hail and thunder & lightning

Friday: Little change with bright spells and showers. Again, the odd hefty one. Breezy. Max 18°C

Weekend: Improving….

Saturday: More in the way of sunny spells developing but still some isolated showers around. A little cooler. Max 17°C

Sunday: Hopefully a dry day across the board. A lot of cloud around initially but bright or sunny spells arriving into the afternoon. Max 17°C

Outlook: It looks likely that high pressure will be building in from the Azores. Unfortunately its position this week means will be prone to a northwesterly airflow so dragging in a lot of cloud at times and occasionally breezy. Some sunny spells around with a lot of dry weather but the cloud could be thick enough at times for some early-morning hill-drizzle. Towards the end of the week and into the second week of July it looks at this stage like the high pressure will hang around and slowly, with increasing amounts of sunshine, temperatures will rise back into the 20s with the mid-20s possible around the 9th/10th. Fingers crossed. Next weekend could be BBQ time and who knows, perhaps temperatures back to 30°C down south.

Can the high slip across the UK and lock into position for next weekend

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 29th of June 2022 at 9:20pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Brief Burst of Heat then Cool – Thursday 16th June 2022 – Sunday 19th June 2022

Hi all,

The first heatwave of the summer has arrived in parts of the UK, something I hinted at in my blog on the 18th of May.

It was forecast a few days prior and could well see temperatures of 35°C being recorded before a thundery breakdown, threatening the UK June record.

These plumes of hot air tend to happen a few times during the summer months and more often than not drift east and miss the UK altogether, so hard to predict.

They are also usually short-lived, and for us, it will literally be one day of ‘heatwave’ temperatures, so not officially a heatwave across the region.

Thursday: A generally cloudy but warm and increasingly humid day with some sunny spells especially during the morning. Mostly light southerly winds. A warm night. Max 23°C Min 15°C

Friday: More in the way of sunshine after a cloudy start and it looks likely that we will be in the northwestern area of a hot plume of air from the south, originating from Spain. The heat and humidity could well trigger a sharp shower into the afternoon but very isolated. Cloud increasing overnight. Depending on how far northwest the airmass gets will mean a range of temperatures. Max 25-29°C Min 13°C

Weekend: Up to 12°C cooler!

Saturday: A cold-front will move southeast during the morning pushing away the hot and humid air. Some rain is possible to start the day but patchy. Slowly it will become drier but remain mostly cloudy. Much cooler. Max 16°C Min 10°C

There is some uncertainty to the following 24 hours as the heatwave breaks. Low pressure forming to the south means a band of persistent rain is going to form but where this sits across England and Wales remains to be seen. Locally over an inch of rain could be on the cards. Currently this band is set to sit just to the south of us, but a shift north isn’t out of the question. One to watch.

Sunday: A brisk, cool and gusty north-to-northwesterly wind bringing a few showers and mostly cloudy skies – unless the rain-band moves from its forecasted position. Max 16°C Min 9°C

Outlook: Temperatures slightly below average, 16-18°C, next week with a fresh and steady, westerly wind. Sunny spells and occasional showers can’t be ruled out but with high pressure trying to push in from the southwest it could well be drier, slightly warmer and with sunny spells to end the week.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 15th of June 2022 at 6:45pm.

Warmer with variable amounts of sunshine – Thursday 5th May 2022 – Sunday 8th May 2022

Hi all,

With summer not too far away it’s time for the heatwave stories to appear in the media. Yes warmer weather is on the way, yes there is a chance of heatwave conditions to be met in parts of England later next week if the forecast comes off but it’s a long way off, so only time will tell. One thing we can never have is a “mini-heatwave”. Just like a “mini-tornado”. There are no such things.

Thursday: Cloudy with bright spells developing here and there. Feeling quite warm. Max 17°C

Friday: A weakening band of rain will slowly sink southeast across the region, mainly during the afternoon. A little cooler due to mostly overcast skies. Max 15°C

Weekend: Sunday’s looking the best and warmer too.

Saturday: Bright spells but there could well be a disappointing amount of cloud as a weather-front decays and high pressure builds. Low risk of an isolated shower or two. Quite muggy. Max 17°C

Sunday: Warm sunny spells developing and feeling humid. Max 19°C

Outlook: A warm southwesterly airflow so temperatures sitting in the late teens. It won’t be sunshine all the way so plenty of cloudy spells with occasional showers and bright or sunny spells. Possibly even warmer, into the early-20s by the end of the week. A plume of very warm air is possible with 26°C not ruled out in southern England.

April 2022 Stats

Max 19.7°C (16th)
Min -0.5°C (9th)
Av. 8.8°C
Wettest 9.8mm (7th)
Av. Humidity 74%
Av. Barometer 1017.3 hPa
Max Gust 34.5mph
Av. Wind Direction NNE
Rain 32.6mm (well below average)
Rain Registered Days 13
Dry Days 17
Air Frosts 4
Snow Falling Days 2

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 4th of May 2022 at 9:25pm

Warm doesn’t necessarily mean sunny – Thursday 14th April 2022 – Bank Holiday Monday 18th April 2022

Hi all,

The Easter weekend is lurking and most of you will be wondering what the weather has in store. The good news is, high pressure is set to build briefly and its position means we will be sitting in a relatively warm air mass but it looks like we will be importing a lot of cloud, especially to start days. With light winds early mist/low-cloud could be stubborn too.

Thursday: A cloudy start with some localised mist or fog. Hazy sunny spells developing and feeling quite warm. During the afternoon just the outside chance of a shower. Max 16°C

Good Friday: Misty morning with cloud eventually breaking up leading to some warm bright spells. Localised shower/downpour can’t be ruled out. Max 17°C

Saturday: Looks like more in the way of sunshine developing, again after a cloudy start. Warm in any sun. Max 18°C

Easter Sunday: Little change with conditions similar to Saturday for most of the day but signs of some showery activity into the afternoon/evening. Max 16°C

Bank Holiday Monday: Mostly cloudy with some brighter slots and feeling pleasant once again in any sunshine but looking cooler than recently. Max 14°C

Rest of next week: Plenty of dry weather and cloud early on with some bright spells and temperatures eventually slipping back to the mid-teens or just below. Likely to turn unsettled from midweek with some spells of showery rain although not amounting to too much.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of April 2022 at 9:15pm

Another cold snap then warmer – Thursday 7th April 2022 – Sunday 10th April 2022

Hi all,

March’s stats are in and it was a very dry month overall with 6-times less rainfall than February and with a decent spell of dry and sunny weather. In fact we went 13 days without rain and enjoyed temperatures close to 20°C and blue skies. I miss those days.

Thursday: Much colder air has now arrived from the North after a windy night. Early rain then it will be a day of blustery, wintry showers with some hail, sleet and hill-snow. Feeling cold throughout. Max 8°C

Friday: A frosty start with plenty of sunshine. Clouds bubbling up with wintry showers breaking out again. Breezy but not as windy or as cold as Thursday. Max 10°C

Colder than average over the next 4 days.

Weekend: A better Saturday than Sunday.

Saturday: A frost to start then a decent day with sunny spells and a fresh breeze but not as windy as recently. Clouding over by evening which could lead to a nice sunset. Max 10°C

Sunday: Cloudy with a change to a southwesterly airflow bringing some localised drizzle or patchy rain. Winds picking up. No frost as milder air pushes in. Max 11°C

Outlook: Warmer overall with temperatures into the mid-teens and feeling pleasant in any sunshine. Sunny spells expected during the week but occasionally cloudier conditions with a few showers also on the cards. Breezy at times but with no frosts or cold spell likely. 

March 2022 Stats

Max 18.6°C (25th)
Min -0.7°C (7th)
Av. 7.9°C
Wettest 4.4mm (3rd)
Av. Humidity 75%
Av. Barometer 1023.2 hPa
Max Gust 33.4mph
Av. Wind Direction SE
Rain 20.8mm (well below average)
Rain Registered Days 11
Dry Days 20
Air Frosts 2
Snow Falling Days 2

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of April 2022 at 8:30pm