Brief Burst of Heat then Cool – Thursday 16th June 2022 – Sunday 19th June 2022

Hi all,

The first heatwave of the summer has arrived in parts of the UK, something I hinted at in my blog on the 18th of May.

It was forecast a few days prior and could well see temperatures of 35°C being recorded before a thundery breakdown, threatening the UK June record.

These plumes of hot air tend to happen a few times during the summer months and more often than not drift east and miss the UK altogether, so hard to predict.

They are also usually short-lived, and for us, it will literally be one day of ‘heatwave’ temperatures, so not officially a heatwave across the region.

Thursday: A generally cloudy but warm and increasingly humid day with some sunny spells especially during the morning. Mostly light southerly winds. A warm night. Max 23°C Min 15°C

Friday: More in the way of sunshine after a cloudy start and it looks likely that we will be in the northwestern area of a hot plume of air from the south, originating from Spain. The heat and humidity could well trigger a sharp shower into the afternoon but very isolated. Cloud increasing overnight. Depending on how far northwest the airmass gets will mean a range of temperatures. Max 25-29°C Min 13°C

Weekend: Up to 12°C cooler!

Saturday: A cold-front will move southeast during the morning pushing away the hot and humid air. Some rain is possible to start the day but patchy. Slowly it will become drier but remain mostly cloudy. Much cooler. Max 16°C Min 10°C

There is some uncertainty to the following 24 hours as the heatwave breaks. Low pressure forming to the south means a band of persistent rain is going to form but where this sits across England and Wales remains to be seen. Locally over an inch of rain could be on the cards. Currently this band is set to sit just to the south of us, but a shift north isn’t out of the question. One to watch.

Sunday: A brisk, cool and gusty north-to-northwesterly wind bringing a few showers and mostly cloudy skies – unless the rain-band moves from its forecasted position. Max 16°C Min 9°C

Outlook: Temperatures slightly below average, 16-18°C, next week with a fresh and steady, westerly wind. Sunny spells and occasional showers can’t be ruled out but with high pressure trying to push in from the southwest it could well be drier, slightly warmer and with sunny spells to end the week.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 15th of June 2022 at 6:45pm.

Warmer with variable amounts of sunshine – Thursday 5th May 2022 – Sunday 8th May 2022

Hi all,

With summer not too far away it’s time for the heatwave stories to appear in the media. Yes warmer weather is on the way, yes there is a chance of heatwave conditions to be met in parts of England later next week if the forecast comes off but it’s a long way off, so only time will tell. One thing we can never have is a “mini-heatwave”. Just like a “mini-tornado”. There are no such things.

Thursday: Cloudy with bright spells developing here and there. Feeling quite warm. Max 17°C

Friday: A weakening band of rain will slowly sink southeast across the region, mainly during the afternoon. A little cooler due to mostly overcast skies. Max 15°C

Weekend: Sunday’s looking the best and warmer too.

Saturday: Bright spells but there could well be a disappointing amount of cloud as a weather-front decays and high pressure builds. Low risk of an isolated shower or two. Quite muggy. Max 17°C

Sunday: Warm sunny spells developing and feeling humid. Max 19°C

Outlook: A warm southwesterly airflow so temperatures sitting in the late teens. It won’t be sunshine all the way so plenty of cloudy spells with occasional showers and bright or sunny spells. Possibly even warmer, into the early-20s by the end of the week. A plume of very warm air is possible with 26°C not ruled out in southern England.

April 2022 Stats

Max 19.7°C (16th)
Min -0.5°C (9th)
Av. 8.8°C
Wettest 9.8mm (7th)
Av. Humidity 74%
Av. Barometer 1017.3 hPa
Max Gust 34.5mph
Av. Wind Direction NNE
Rain 32.6mm (well below average)
Rain Registered Days 13
Dry Days 17
Air Frosts 4
Snow Falling Days 2

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 4th of May 2022 at 9:25pm

Warm doesn’t necessarily mean sunny – Thursday 14th April 2022 – Bank Holiday Monday 18th April 2022

Hi all,

The Easter weekend is lurking and most of you will be wondering what the weather has in store. The good news is, high pressure is set to build briefly and its position means we will be sitting in a relatively warm air mass but it looks like we will be importing a lot of cloud, especially to start days. With light winds early mist/low-cloud could be stubborn too.

Thursday: A cloudy start with some localised mist or fog. Hazy sunny spells developing and feeling quite warm. During the afternoon just the outside chance of a shower. Max 16°C

Good Friday: Misty morning with cloud eventually breaking up leading to some warm bright spells. Localised shower/downpour can’t be ruled out. Max 17°C

Saturday: Looks like more in the way of sunshine developing, again after a cloudy start. Warm in any sun. Max 18°C

Easter Sunday: Little change with conditions similar to Saturday for most of the day but signs of some showery activity into the afternoon/evening. Max 16°C

Bank Holiday Monday: Mostly cloudy with some brighter slots and feeling pleasant once again in any sunshine but looking cooler than recently. Max 14°C

Rest of next week: Plenty of dry weather and cloud early on with some bright spells and temperatures eventually slipping back to the mid-teens or just below. Likely to turn unsettled from midweek with some spells of showery rain although not amounting to too much.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of April 2022 at 9:15pm

Another cold snap then warmer – Thursday 7th April 2022 – Sunday 10th April 2022

Hi all,

March’s stats are in and it was a very dry month overall with 6-times less rainfall than February and with a decent spell of dry and sunny weather. In fact we went 13 days without rain and enjoyed temperatures close to 20°C and blue skies. I miss those days.

Thursday: Much colder air has now arrived from the North after a windy night. Early rain then it will be a day of blustery, wintry showers with some hail, sleet and hill-snow. Feeling cold throughout. Max 8°C

Friday: A frosty start with plenty of sunshine. Clouds bubbling up with wintry showers breaking out again. Breezy but not as windy or as cold as Thursday. Max 10°C

Colder than average over the next 4 days.

Weekend: A better Saturday than Sunday.

Saturday: A frost to start then a decent day with sunny spells and a fresh breeze but not as windy as recently. Clouding over by evening which could lead to a nice sunset. Max 10°C

Sunday: Cloudy with a change to a southwesterly airflow bringing some localised drizzle or patchy rain. Winds picking up. No frost as milder air pushes in. Max 11°C

Outlook: Warmer overall with temperatures into the mid-teens and feeling pleasant in any sunshine. Sunny spells expected during the week but occasionally cloudier conditions with a few showers also on the cards. Breezy at times but with no frosts or cold spell likely. 

March 2022 Stats

Max 18.6°C (25th)
Min -0.7°C (7th)
Av. 7.9°C
Wettest 4.4mm (3rd)
Av. Humidity 75%
Av. Barometer 1023.2 hPa
Max Gust 33.4mph
Av. Wind Direction SE
Rain 20.8mm (well below average)
Rain Registered Days 11
Dry Days 20
Air Frosts 2
Snow Falling Days 2

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of April 2022 at 8:30pm

Enjoy the warmth before the temperature plummets – Thursday 24th March 2022 – Sunday 27th March 2022

Hi all,

What a superb spell of early-Spring weather we are experiencing and you need to fill your boots. Temperatures into the late-teens and plenty of sunny periods, but hazy due to the high pollution levels.

Everywhere is now beginning to dry out fast and after giving my garden its annual winter-is-over declutter, it was clear to see that it actually might need watering soon. With little rain on the horizon, it means after a soggy February, it will have been a very dry March.

Growers beware, temperatures are set to drop to below average values next week, a real shock for our gardens and plants after the warmth of this week.

UV levels are now creeping up and are around medium for a couple of hours at lunchtime. No sun-cream really needed yet, unless you’re out in it for several hours non-stop, late-morning to early-afternoon.

Thursday: Another cracking day. Warm to very warm for the time of year with widespread sunny spells. Some fair-weather cloud around. Light winds. Max 18°C

Friday: Continuing warm and sunny. Some cloud bubbling up into the day. Light winds. Max 18°C

Weekend: Grab that sunshine and make the most of it.

Saturday: Further sunny spells and warm with it too. Any morning-cloud burning off. Dry. Max 17°C

Sunday: Sunny spells but temperatures likely to be a notch or two lower. Max 15°C

Outlook: The high pressure that has dominated our weather will shift west and that move in location will allow more in the way of cloud to arrive. More importantly we will introduce a north-to-northeasterly airflow and at this time of the year that is still a very cold direction. Some of the air will be sourced from the Arctic. A lot of dry weather is still expected with the odd shower drifting in from the northeast. No snow expected, this will fall in the Scottish mountains though. By midweek we will see some ground-frosts return and daytime temperatures struggling to 7-9°C, a big change from this week.

Warmer than average this week to colder than average next week. Don’t put the big coats away just yet.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of March 2022 at 9:13pm
Image: (chart) http://www.wxcharts.com

Some snow followed by welcome sunshine – Thursday 24th February 2022 – Sunday 27th February 2022

Hi all,

What a wet and wild week that was, with storms Dudley, Eunice and Franklin bringing disruptive winds and high rainfall totals, leading to localised flooding. You’ll be glad to know that we are in for a more settled few days once we get past a blast of cold snowy air from the northwest.

Thursday: Windy especially during showers which will be wintry in nature. Expect thunder & lightning, hail, sleet & some snow, even to lower-levels for a time. Biting wind & much colder.

Hail, sleet and snow showers on Thursday

Snow amounts: 1-3cms can’t be ruled out especially at 150-300M and even up to 5cm above 300M, especially in areas seeing frequent snow showers. Gusts of 35-40mph making it feel sub-zero. Max 5°C

This prediction seems over the top to me but certainly the potential for a few cms of snow in places by the end of Thursday

Friday: Well this has been long overdue. A decent day with plenty of sunny spells across the region. It will also be dry and with lighter winds, it will not feel as cold. Max 8°C

Weekend: The best one for a while.

Saturday: A dry day with sunny spells. A little bit on the breezy side but much improved on last weekend. Max 9°C

Sunday: Another dry day but with more cloud, we will see more in the way of bright spells rather than sunny spells. Max 9°C

Outlook: Cloudy with some rain expected on Monday, but after that, high pressure to our south looks to keep us settled for a few days and any bands of rain from the northwest will weaken. So good news, we will get a rest from the relentless rain and storms. Still no signs of any proper cold as we enter Spring.

High pressure will be around at times later next week, finally settling down the weather

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of February 2022 at 5:15pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Deadly Storm Eunice to batter UK – Thursday 17th February 2022 – Sunday 20th February 2022

Hi all,

Remember in January, how I mentioned how uneventful the weather was and how February would be payback time. Looks like you have me to blame for the miserable conditions that we are experiencing.

In the first 16 days of February we have measured rainfall on every single day and we are standing at 84mm for the month, well above average. Also, we are experiencing milder-than-average temperatures. The winters now, certainly don’t feel like the winters of my youth, with a distinct lack of snow and cold spells.

At the time of writing this forecast, we are currently experiencing Storm Dudley, which to be fair is a typical lively winter storm system. But Friday will see a rarer event, with a rapidly deepening area of low pressure, that will be damaging and dangerous to parts of England and Wales.

Although it is set to be very windy and hazardous, it looks like we will miss out on the more damaging 80-90mph gusts which are modelled to arrive across the south-west and southern parts of England and Wales on Friday, but there looks to be a sting in the tail as winds change direction.

Thursday: A windy day, especially early on. Sunshine and blustery showers, some heavy with hail and thunder and lightning. Wintry on the tops too. Max 6°C

Friday: Storm Eunice is here. The latest data puts the storm slightly further south. This means lower wind gusts for the morning with the strongest gusts saved for the afternoon, with 70mph possible quite widely, as winds swing north-westerly. Another shift in its track is possible. An very unsettled day for us, which looks to start not too windy. Heavy rain followed by wintry showers and some more prolonged rain, sleet and snow later as winds veer north-westerly. Winds look to be at their strongest mid-afternoon. Max 7°C

Winds look to be at their strongest for us as they veer WNW/NW on the back edge of the low. Gusts to 75mph can not be ruled out.

Weekend: More wind and rain. Sorry.

Saturday: Further bouts of showers which could be wintry (hill-snow) and thundery at times. Remaining windy making it feel cold. Some of the showers falling as snow above 300M. Max 6°C

Sunday: Another very windy day, and don’t be surprised to see another named-storm, Storm Franklin, as we see more rain followed by showers across the region with strong and gusty winds; 50mph possible. Milder. Max 10°C

Outlook:  The unsettled weather will continue during the week after a respite on Monday, when it is looking drier with some bright spells thanks to a ridge of high pressure. Conditions look set to improve towards next weekend with high pressure trying to build in from the south-west of the UK. No sign of any below average temperatures. It’s starting to feel like Autumn lasts 6 months.

Follow me on Twitter at @ChadWeather for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading.
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 16th of February 2022 at 9:10pm
Image: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Chilly with some sunshine before weekend rain – Thursday 10th February 2022 – Sunday 13th February 2022

Hi all,

More tabloid clickbait nonsense being printed this week. Decent snowfall to come in parts of Scotland over the next few days but we aren’t going to be ‘buried under 30cm’ of snow on my watch. If only.

I’m a snow-lover, and love frosty mornings and that crisp-feel to a winter’s day but we certainly had more snow when I was a lad, as well as colder nights. I know winter hasn’t finished with us yet but I’m actually starting to look forward to Spring now. Being able to get out in the garden, cutting the lawns and feeling some warmth from the sun can’t come quickly enough. Sunsets are now after 5pm. Springtime will soon be here.

Thursday: Colder air has now arrived from the northwest. Sunny spells with some wintry showers blown in on a brisk biting wind. These will fall as hail, sleet and snow above 250M. Harsh frost to come overnight. Max 5°C Min -4°C

Friday: A decent day with plenty of sunny spells after a very frosty and possibly foggy start. Lighter winds with the sun turning hazy later. Max 6°C Min 2°C

Weekend: High pressure slips away. Windy with periods of rain.

Saturday: A cold and bright start but cloud and wind increasing from the west quickly as rain moves in during the day and it becomes milder. Max 8°C Min 6°C

Sunday: Mild and staying unsettled with further rain or showers and windy. Max 10°C Min 5°C

Outlook: The westerly flow of wind and spells of rain or showers looks set to continue. At this stage no sign of any proper cold, a Beast from the East or sledge-able snowfall. I feel a chilly March could be on the cards.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 9th of February 2022 at 6:55pm.

Image: Rochdale canal (09/02/2022).

Short-lived Wintry Showers – Thursday 3rd February 2022 – Sunday 6th February 2022

Hi all,

The final winter month has arrived and still we wait for a proper cold spell which are becoming few and far between these days. January did have a few sunny days but equally overcast days with little eventful weather after a wet start.

We did manage to close out the month with a couple of named-storms but we missed the carnage which was mostly felt to our north and north-east where gusts of 80-90mph were recorded away from elevation.

As mentioned it was a wet start and also a wet final few days but overall we only saw 43% of the average rainfall last month. So as well as drier-than-average and it was milder with a lack of very cold spells and snowfall. What will February bring? Long-range models suggest drier-than-average again, although this is borderline with plenty of rain on the cards just to our northwest. Fine margins.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some patchy rain during the morning. A few bright spells later and windy with 35mph gusts. Again, very mild for the time of year but change arrives overnight with a squally cold-front passing through the region during the early hours. Max 10°C

Friday: A weather-front earlier in the night will bring a much colder polar airflow with sunny spells and wintry showers with some sleet and snow. Expect hail and a chance of thunder and lightning. Feeling cold in a strong, gusty and biting wind. Max 5°C

Colder air arrives during the early hours of Friday.

Weekend: Milder once again.

Saturday: Slowly becoming milder and generally overcast with some patchy rain or drizzle. Max 8°C

Sunday: Heavy rain early followed by a few showers. Windy with 35-40mph gusts but remaining mild. Max 9°C

Outlook: High pressure close to the south of the UK, slipping a little further east, and rain-bearing fronts to the north-west means we will be sandwiched in the middle. Mostly cloudy days, staying mild for most with the threat of rain now and again. Chance it turns even milder later. The search for a decent cold spell continues. Snow at Easter no doubt.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and weather warnings.

January 2022 Stats

Max 13.6°C (1st)
Min -2.1°C (6th)
Av. 4.6°C
Wettest 11.2mm (8th)
Av. Humidity 88%
Av. Barometer 1024.8 hPa
Max Gust 41.4mph (31st)
Av. Wind Direction WSW
Rain 44.8mm (43% of average)
Rain Registered Days 18
Dry Days 13
Air Frosts 6
Snow Falling Days 5

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 2nd of February 2022 at 6:55pm.

Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Finally some changes – Thursday 27th January 2022 – Sunday 30th January 2022

Hi all,

What a boring rut the weather has got itself into. We can deal with day after day of blue skies, which parts from the country have had; but for us it’s been overcast, dull and dank and even very cold for a couple of days. Finally, we have some changes on the way, by that I mean some sort of weather with a bit of mobility.

Thursday: After some overnight rain it will be a breezy day with some sunny spells and just an isolated shower or two. Milder than recently. Max 10°C

Some rain moves SE overnight Wednesday/Thursday

Friday: A bright start then cloud tending to increase from the west with a few spots of light rain into the evening. Windy. Max 10°C

Weekend: Very windy for a time.

Saturday: Cloudy with a band of rain moving south-east through the region, weakening as it does so. Very windy with local gale-force gusts. Mild but cooler later. Max 11°C

Gusty on Saturday with local gale-force winds

Sunday: Cool with some brightness but mostly cloudy. Rain looks set to arrive into the evening. Not as windy. Max 8°C

Outlook: More changeable going into February with some areas of rain from the west and occasionally windy. Looks chilly for a day or two otherwise temperatures around or just above average. No sign of significant cold or any snow event.

Follow me on Twitter @ChadWeather for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of January 2022 at 9:15pm
Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com