A cold and windy Christmas Day – Thursday 23rd December 2021 – Boxing Day 26th December 2021

Hi all,

Finally the Christmas week blog. If you follow weather on social media, you will have seen the debates, and flip-flop model outputs, of a mild Christmas vs. a cold potentially snowy Christmas for days and days now. For snow-lovers; close but no cigar.

If you were hoping for a sledge or snowball fight on Christmas Day then look away now. Save those thoughts for the New Year! A standard UK winter lies ahead over the festive period.

Thursday: Cloudy and a milder day across the region after two quite cold days. Bands of patchy rain and drizzle moving north-east during the day. Max 10°C

Christmas Eve: Remaining mild for the time of year and again generally cloudy. Some rain arriving later in the day and overnight. Winds increasing. Max 8°C

Weekend: Colder but not the snowy Christmas we (some) wanted.

Christmas Day: A cold easterly wind which will be quite strong and gusty. Overcast with rain, patchy at times, easing. Another band of rain later. Winds gusting to 30mph and making it feel close to 0°C. High up, on the Pennines for example, there could well be the odd flake of wet-snow mixed in. Remember, only one flake makes it a White Christmas. Max 5°C

850 hPa temps (1.5km above sea-level) – Not quite in the cold air for Christmas Day

Boxing Day: Little change expected; cloudy with some light rain. The battle of cold air to the north-east and milder air to the south-west remains locked. It will feel chilly but we’re not exactly in the colder airmass. Max 6°C

Outlook: It looks like the milder air will eventually win out and it will become unsettled with spells of rain and wind. Temperatures slipping into double-figures to end 2021.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

I would like to wish you all a very Merry Christmas and all the best for 2022!

Thanks for all your tweets, photos and kind words this year.


Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of December 2021 at 4:20pm.
Image: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Finally, a dry spell, but sunshine a rarity, as it slowly becomes colder – Thursday 16th December 2021 – Sunday 19th December 2021

Hi all,

What a poor start to December with 77.4mm of rain already fallen here at HQ (higher in the hills) – that’s 127% of the average for the first 15 days of the month. We desperately need dry weather and that is certainly what the outlook brings.

High pressure is now going to take charge of our weather and hold off our normal Atlantic-influenced weather that brings rain and wind-storms. The high pressure is set to become strong and very stubborn to shift and looks set to hang around for a good while, even up to Christmas Day. High pressure can bring plenty of dry weather as we know, but also a lot of sunny skies in summer, when the sun is strong enough to burn through any persistent cloud. Unfortunately we’re at that time of the year when the sun’s strength is at its lowest. Coupled with this, is the position of the expanding high pressure, meaning that we will start to import a lot of cloud from the North Sea on a easterly, occasionally veering north-easterly or south-easterly wind. A ‘cloud-high’ awaits, also known as anticyclonic gloom, or as I call it boring weather!

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with any brightness favouring the east. Mild for the time of year. 11°C

Friday: Cloudy with a misty start in places. Dry but a little cooler than recently with any brightness in the west. Max 8°C

Weekend: Widespread cloud-cover with misty conditions.

High pressure taking charge of the weather

Saturday: Remaining cloudy and dull with more mist or fog expected, which could linger in a few spots all day. Max 7°C

Sunday: Temperatures beginning to fall away with yet more overcast skies and misty conditions. Max 6°C

Monday: Starting to feel quite cold now with an easterly airflow. Little change is expected in the conditions, overcast and misty. Max 5°C

Outlook: The stagnant pattern is set to continue. Depending on the location of the high, we could see it become colder with temperatures only a few degrees above freezing. Any breaks in the cloud would allow for daytime brightness and frosts overnight. The general theme is dry but cloud could be thick enough for localised drizzle or snow flurries.

Christmas Day: Currently looking dry, mostly overcast and cold. Any breaks in the cloud will allow for a frosty start. Temperatures close to 4°C as a maximum; whether it is cloudy and cold enough for those snow flurries is still debatable but this would be enough for a White Christmas. No sign of a ‘snow bomb’ just yet 😉 but even colder air is lurking to our E/NE which we could eventually tap into. All to play for if you’re a proper-cold lover.

The days between Christmas and New Year look interesting as the Atlantic tries to comeback into play, bringing areas of low pressure and the normal pattern we are used to. But, with cold air in place, and perhaps the stubborn high still around, a battleground could commence with snow possible on any weather-fronts making inroads, even if it’s temporary, before the rain and wind return. Certainly one to watch, which us weather folk are already talking about.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather warnings and forecasts.


Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of December 2021 at 5:25pm
Image: http://www.netweather.tv

Storm Barra fades, milder and drier conditions ahead – Thursday 9th December 2021 – Sunday 12th December 2021

Hi all,

Another eventful week with plenty of rain, wind and some hill-snow. The second named-storm of the season, Storm Barra, brought ferocious winds to parts of Ireland and gale-force gusts to our region followed by a lot of rainfall, 22mm alone today.

We have certainly missed the worst of these storms and typically this is weather we are used to in winter. Storm Barra filled (lost intensity) quickly on Wednesday but its position meant we were subject to bouts of rain, hail, sleet and hill-snow on a strong WNW wind. Any dry days ahead? We certainly need some as it’s rained or snowed the last 10 out of 11 days.

Thursday: Cloudy with any showers easing then bright spells. Much-improved on Wednesday but some rain returning towards evening. Chilly. Max 6°C

Friday: A cool NW’ly airflow with some scattered wintry showers and bright spells. Max 6°C

Weekend: Some rain as temperatures rise.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy but dry to start. Patchy rain spreading across the region later in the morning and into the afternoon. Max 7°C

Sunday: Another cloudy day with some patchy light rain or drizzle. Much milder than recently as we return to double-figure temperatures for the first time in 3 weeks (20th November). Max 13°C

Outlook: Further patchy rain on Monday and mild but thereafter high pressure looks set to build, settling the week down to mostly cloudy skies, dry weather with a cool breeze. Temperatures dropping back to normal. No sign of a cold snap before Christmas.

Just for Fun: I’ll take a punt that Christmas will be milder-than-average, cloudy and mostly dry. Still 17 days to go so plenty of time to change

Follow @ChadWeather for local weather forecasts and warnings.


Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 8th of December 2021 at 6:40pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Remaining chilly to start Winter – Thursday 2nd December 2021 – Sunday 5th December 2021

Hi all,

Well what a week of weather that was. The first named-storm of the season, Storm Arwen, arrived (Friday night) bringing locally severe gale-force gusts, an inch of rain, then much colder, Arctic air followed with a surprising snow event on the Sunday.

We certainly escaped the extreme winds that Arwen delivered. These were felt to our NE and SW with some local amateur weather stations in exposed elevated locations recording over 100mph. From Oldham council’s collection of weather stations, the highest gust was on Windy Hill at 58.4mph. We got off lightly.

As I wrote my blog a week ago and even a day before the weekend, it was looking like Sunday would be the calm after the storm with plenty of blue skies and sunshine but the day’s forecast changed quickly. A small feature developed during Saturday, to the NW of Scotland, with a possible SE’ly track which meant sleet or snow was now in the forecast for Sunday.

Even going into Saturday night it was unclear how much precipation would fall and what the actual track would be. Some computer models, notably the one the Met Office use, did not have this on their radar for us. Sunday dawned and a few computer models forecast the system very well and the wintry feature tracked SE.

By Sunday morning it was clear that we were in for several hours of snow (sleet and rain if you were much further W). It snowed quite heavily at times and between 11am and 3:30pm, with a total of 5cm accumulating here in Chadderton. Not bad considering the models, that did forecast the event, were suggesting 1-3cm. And all this still in Autumn.

In fact Sunday, November the 28th, was the coldest November day I have ever recorded with a maximum of +0.1C, almost an ice day. What followed for the evening was light winds, clear skies and plummeting temperatures, aided by the snow-cover. It then turned out to be the coldest November night I have ever recorded too, at -6.3C; values that will take some beating in winter itself.

My walk down Rochdale canal started dry but ended snowy – Sunday (28/11)
A snowy Chadderton Hall Park – Sunday (28/11)
Time to take the sledge out – Sunday (28/11)
It was a bitter Monday morning (29/11) with temperatures down to -7°C widely and -10°C in parts of Lancashire
Ashton-under-Lyne in the snow on Monday morning (29/11)

Thursday: Arctic air is back in place with a widespread frost to start and icy patches. Plenty of sunny spells on offer with a keen wind. Cloud arriving later in the day with a spell of rain overnight (perhaps a little sleet or wet-snow on the tops briefly). Milder overnight. Max 4°C Min 1°C

Friday: Rain moves away to be replaced by mostly cloudy conditions and although most will be dry, some patchy light rain/drizzle will be around. Max 8°C Min 4°C

Weekend: Colder again.

Saturday: Early rain replaced by bright spells and frequent wintry showers, falling as snow on the hills. Feeling cold in a gusty NW’ly. Max 6°C Min 0°C

Sunday: Windy but dry with sunny spells. That N’ly breeze making it feel cold once again. Frosty after dark. Max 5°C Min -2°C

Outlook: Favourable to stay on the cold side with showers at times, which will be wintry in places, more so on the hills. Some models hint at a day (maybe Tuesday) of very windy weather followed by a respite then more rain/hill-snow. Certainly an unsettled and changeable week.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and weather warnings.

Thanks for reading as always,

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 1st of December 2021 at 8:55pm

Featured Photo: Chadderton Hall Park on Sunday (28/11)