Slowly milder, quieter & most importantly, drier – Thursday 19th January 2023 – Sunday 22nd January 2023

Hi all,

Rainfall record: We went 32 days running with measurable rainfall. The record to beat was/is 33 days from Oct-Nov 2013. Now here’s where it gets interesting. Yesterday, day 33, it snowed and due to being cold the snow didn’t melt so the “rainfall” amount was 0mm. Today snowmelt occurred leading to measurable “rainfall”, 0.4mm to be precise. It also snowed during the early hours of today, Wednesday. So, although we didn’t have a rainfall measurement on Tuesday we technically still haven’t had a dry day since December 15th. It looks like Friday will certainly be our first dry day for over a month.

Hope you all enjoyed the snowfall (a few of my snaps below). Certainly made everywhere pretty but the colder air is on its way out, eventually, and after days and days of rain, there is a drier spell on the way, and boy do we need it.

Greenbooth Reservoir – 3cm fell here – Wednesday 18/01/2023
Greenbooth Reservoir – Wednesday 18/01/2023 – this featured as a backdrop on the national BBC weather forecast later that morning 🙂
Greenbooth Reservoir – Wednesday 18/01/2023
Greenbooth Reservoir – Wednesday 18/01/2023

Thursday: We start the day with a weather warning in place for snow and ice thanks to wintry showers. These showers are likely to fall as snow inland but will soon decay away leaving a cloudy morning. Sunny spells will develop into the afternoon leaving a dry day and then a cold and frosty night ahead. Max 3°C Min -2°C

Friday: Mist or fog patches to start which will lift into low cloud and then sunny spells developing quite widely which could be a little hazy. Max 4°C Min -3°C

Weekend: Eventually less cold and not as sunny.

Saturday: Milder air is pushing in hard from the west but it will take another day to reach us. Sunny spells developing after a frosty morning. Cloud increasing into the evening meaning a frost isn’t likely. Cold. Max 4°C Min 2°C

Sunday: The change is here. Southerly winds in place and this will drag in a lot of cloud. Cold to start but very slowly milder as the day wears on. Some patchy drizzle here and there. Max 7°C Min 5°C

Outlook: High pressure will begin to dominate so a lot of dry weather but it looks to be a cloudy-high. So a lot of dull days with misty/foggy conditions developing overnight. The cloud might be thick enough for pockets of drizzle but the majority will be dry and this relief from relentless rain looks set to last for the rest of January.

High pressure builds next week and will anchor across the UK – Dry, often cloudy with localised fog

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of January 2023 at 8:07pm
Image: http://www.netweather.tv

Drier for a time and exceptionally mild – Thursday 10th November 2022 – Sunday 13th November 2022

Hi all,

After a wet October it’s been quite a wet start to November too. We’re in for some mainly dry days now but it will be very windy too, and, as mentioned, very mild. Signs of it turning a bit cooler next week and with it the possibility of severe gales in places and yet more rain.

Thursday: After a very mild night the day will continue on the warmer-than-average front with moist southwesterly winds. These winds will be gusty, 30-35mph and will bring plenty of cloud. Risk of some drizzle, especially on the hills. Max 16°C

Thursday night’s minimum temperatures could well be record-breaking for November across parts of the UK, especially sheltered from the wind and in favourable locations.

Temperatures still around the mid-teens during the early hours of Friday morning

Friday: Another very mild and cloudy day with gusty winds. It should be dry for most and hopefully some bright spells later in the day as cloud breaks from the south. Max 16°C

Weekend: Sunnier Saturday.

Saturday: A southeasterly wind will bring in slightly cooler air and also drier air leading to a dry day with plenty of sunny spells developing. Sounds like a day in the garden to get it ready for winter. Max 13°C

Sunday: Bright morning but cloud increasing as the day wears on. Fresh breeze. Max 13°C

Outlook: Becoming increasingly unsettled with low pressures coming in off the Atlantic. These will need monitoring as there is a risk of them becoming deep and bringing spells of heavy rain and gales or even severe gales. After a mild start it looks set to become cooler or even colder with max temperatures around 9-11°C.

The potential for some deep areas of low pressure later next week

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 9th of October 2022 at 5:35pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Chilly with a better end to the working week before turning unsettled again – Thursday 3rd November 2022 – Sunday 6th November 2022

Hi all,

October turned into a wet month with rainfall totals above average. It was the wettest month since February with 115.6mm of rain. It was also notably very mild to warm at times. We didn’t reach the dizzy heights of temperatures into the 20s like they did down south but plenty of days saw the mid-teens and night temperatures also staying into double-figures.

November has started off on a windy and cooler note with temperatures more around normal. There isn’t any sign of significantly colder weather on the way despite media reports.

Thursday: A fresh start with plenty of sunny spells and perhaps a rogue shower. Clouds will increase and a scattering of showers will develop. Feeling chilly. Breezy but not as windy as yesterday. Max 11°C

Friday: A decent day with sunny spells. Cloudier at times later, with the chance of a few showers off the Irish Sea, but skies clearing again overnight and becoming cold with the risk of a ground-frost in rural and sheltered spots. Lighter winds. Max 11°C

Weekend: Turning more unsettled again.

Saturday: After a dry start, cloud will thicken from the west and the winds will increase. Rain will spread east as the day progresses, heavy at times then turning patchy towards evening. Apart from a few showers I’m hopeful that it could be mainly dry in time for the bonfires and fireworks. Max 12°C

Sunday: Windy with bright spells and showers developing. Max 12°C

Outlook: It’s looking wet with rain or showers on Monday and Tuesday but with the strong and gusty wind coming from the south or south-west it will become milder again, 14-15°C. Later in the week there’s a chance high pressure will build as the Jet Stream buckles. So fingers crossed for something drier and more settled but remaining milder-than-average for now.

High pressure building second half of next week?

October 2022 Stats

Max 16.7°C (29th)
Min 5.6°C (18th)
Av. 11.8°C
Wettest 24.8mm (5th)
Av. Humidity 86%
Av. Barometer 1012.7 hPa
Max Gust 31.1mph
Av. Wind Direction SSW
Rain 115.6mm (above average)
Rain Registered Days 26
Dry Days 5

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Until next week. Thanks for reading.
Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 2nd of November 2022 at 8:30pm.
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

A decent Thursday but rain will return – Thursday 13th October 2022 – Sunday 16th October 2022

Hi all,

Autumnal conditions continue with more rain today, albeit patchy. It’s certainly been a wet start to October, with the monthly total already up to 35mm. There’s little in the way of anything settled and sunny for a prolonged period on the horizon, so you’ll have to make the most of some sunshine on Thursday.

Thursday: A decent day as we avoid weather systems. Sunny spells, light winds and feeling pleasant. Max 15°C

Friday: Strong and blustery westerly winds bringing a few showers/showery rain at times. Hopefully some sunny spells and drier conditions to end the day. Max 13°C

Weekend: Jet Stream back in charge. Unsettled and feeling cool at times.

Saturday: Windy with showers continuing as clouds bubble up during the day. Again, some of these showers could be heavy and thundery and winds will be gusty when they arrive. Max 13°C

Low pressure in charge brings showers aplenty on Saturday

Sunday: Little change. If anything a little less windy and showers perhaps more scattered, especially later. Cool. More general rain overnight and into Monday morning.  Max 12°C

Outlook: Hard to see anything but limited bright spells and showers as low pressure stays out to our west/south-west and in control of our weather. Nights are now looking mild as we keep a south-westerly airflow. Temperatures back up into the mid-teens early on but overall we will tend to see around average maximum temperatures for the time of year.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 12th of October 2022 at 4:10pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Plenty of dry weather but turning cooler with the chance of a ground-frost – Thursday 15th September 2022 – Sunday 18th September 2022

Hi all,

So far in September (up to the 14th) we’ve had 50mm of rain, so already passing the previous 3 months of summer’s individual monthly totals. Autumn is making up for that decent summer but we now enter a dry spell once again, which could last over a week and it will start to feel chilly.

**UV levels are now down to MEDIUM (4) between 12pm-2pm**

After some sunny spells earlier this week, cloudier conditions and cooler air is set to arrive.

Thursday: Fresh start then a dry day with a north-westerly breeze and sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up during the day. Max 16°C Min 7°C

Friday: High pressure out to our west, so plenty of dry weather with variable cloud feeding down from the north-west on a cool and gusty breeze with sunny spells. Cool but pleasant enough in the sunshine and sheltered from the wind. Cold night ahead with the chance of ground-frost in rural spots. Max 15°C Min 4°C

Colder air from the north arrives during Friday.

Weekend: Cloudier second-half.

Saturday: The fresh north-westerly airflow continues and cloud will increase after a bright morning. Dry. More in the way of cloud overnight so not as cold. Max 15°C Min 8°C

Sunday: The high pressure will have drifted a little bit further east, so the wind should not be as strong. Cloudy day expected with some breaks here and there. Feeling cooler with less in the way of brightness. Max 14°C Min 7°C

Outlook: High pressure to hang around for a few more days, so little change. It will then drift away later in the week, allowing for a steady south-westerly breeze to pick up, dragging in cloud with the odd patch of rain but most will stay dry. Temperatures will recover a little but no sign of a late summer-burst on the horizon!

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Note: There will be no blog next week as I’m off to Spain for a golfing holiday. Forecast tweets will continue and maybe the odd Spanish photo or two ;).

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 14th of September at 5:35pm.

Start of Autumn to bring rain, thunderstorms and wind – Thursday 1st September 2022 – Sunday 4th September 2022

Hi all,

I think it’s safe to say that Summer 2022 was decent. Plenty of dry weather with very warm sunny spells and a lot of settled conditions. Most notable was the record-breaking July heatwave (36.6°C) and the well below-average rainfall. We also had much more warmer evenings than usual and even a nice August (normally a bad month). With it being settled we did lack in thunderstorm activity but we could well see some action over the coming week.

Summer 2022 delivered only 39% of the average rainfall.

June 2022 31.6mm (av. 79mm)
July 2022 35mm (av. 92mm)
August 2022 38mm (av. 95mm)

Meteorological autumn starts on Thursday and we’ll squeeze in another decent day but then it’s all about low pressure and an unsettled theme. Exact timings and the finer details of the coming days will change, so always look out for updates on Twitter.

As is the nature of showers, some areas will see more rain than others but the general overall thinking is; 40-50mm of rainfall is likely in the first 10 days of autumn. These totals could be higher in some spots if we see some torrential thundery showers develop.

Up to 2 inches (50mm) of rain expected during the first 10 days of September. That’s about half of what we received throughout the whole 3 months of summer.

Maximum UV levels are now down to medium between 10am-3pm.

Thursday: Low pressure is beginning to develop to the west of the UK but it won’t influence us just yet. So another mostly dry day with warm sunny spells. Outside chance of a shower later, especially over the hills. Winds still quite breezy. Max 22°C

Friday: The low will creep closer and a squeeze in the isobars will mean another breezy or even windy day. Sunny spells and feeling warm but isolated beefy showers are expected later in the day. Max 21°C

Weekend: Turning more unsettled.

Saturday: A showery day, some likely to be thundery as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. There could well be a band of more persistent rain strewn across the region but the location of this at this stage is uncertain. Breezy. Max 20°C

Sunday: Bright spells, especially to start, then heavy and again possibly thundery showers will develop and becoming widespread. These showers could well be more focused to the south and west. Still feeling quite warm in any sunshine but like previous days it will be windy. Max 20°C

Over the weekend and into early next week low pressure to our southwest will be pushing bands of heavy showers north-eastwards across the region

Outlook: Low pressure remaining pretty much in charge with spells of bright spells and showers, some beefy with thunder and lightning. It will tend to become a little cooler as the week goes on with maximum temperatures back into the teens.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 31st of August 2022 at 1:15pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

7-day heatwave to end early next week with a risk of thunderstorms – Thursday 11th August 2022 – Monday 15th August 2022

Hi all,

Well well well. Another heatwave. August normally disappoints, and OK there is still time left for August to be wet and miserable for the latter part of the month, but the next 5 days are set to be hot and increasingly humid after maximum temperatures reached 25°C on Tuesday and have risen since. Temperatures will make it into the 30s but it will not be as hot as the heatwave of July.

An amber weather warning for extreme heat is in force for Thursday to Sunday – issued by the Met Office

**UV levels are still HIGH (6/7) mostly between 12pm-2pm**

Nights will be warm and a little uncomfortable for sleeping but with relatively low dew points and humidity (until later in the weekend) it could have been a lot worse.

Thursday: The heatwave is in control now, as is high pressure, slam bang across the country bringing a hot day with plenty of sunshine. If you do head to the coast there will be some sea breezes. Max 30°C Min 17°C

Friday: Little change. Hot and sunny with a slight breeze from the east to north-east. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Weekend: More heatwave conditions.

Saturday: Yep, you guessed it another hot and sunny day with a breeze picking up. Max 31°C Min 17°C

Sunday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day; the sign of change. This will be the first signs of a breakdown to the current heatwave as low pressure drifts up from the south. Chance of some thundery showers breaking out later in the day but very isolated. Muggy. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Monday: A cooling theme with scattered thundery showers breaking out. Sunny spells in between. More bearable temperatures but it will be humid as fresher air will slowly arrive on Tuesday. Max 25°C

Outlook: A cooling trend as the weather turns showery with the high slipping away to the east and low pressure coming up from the south or south-west. Locally some hefty downpours and finally some relief from what was a prolonged dry and hot spell of weather. Temperatures returning to around normal values, max 20°C, with the Atlantic driving our weather during the latter part of the week.

The heatwave begins to break: Hit-and-miss thundery showers on Monday

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of August 2022 at 3:05pm
Images: Met Office and http://www.wxcharts.com

Very little rain and possible heatwave – Thursday 7th July 2022 – Sunday 10th July 2022

Hi all,

The first week of July has been disappointing with spells of showers and temperatures below-average but not a lot of rain has fallen (5.6mm). Our environment certainly needs rain, after the first 6 months of the year had 5 months with below-average rainfall. February being the exception.

Things are about to heat up, albeit slowly, as high pressure creeps in from the Azores. The high, this week so far, has given us cool and often cloudy conditions on a north-westerly airflow. During the weekend and into the following week it looks likely that the position of the high will be more favourable, allowing warmer air to be dragged in. How hot we get is still not certain. It depends on the high’s location and also how long it hangs around for. With very little rain on the way and drying ground, and increasing sunshine, temperatures will rise day-by-day.

The Met Office’s definition of a heatwave.

The past few days has been an eye-opener when it comes to scanning the temperature forecast, with some crazy temperatures being “predicted” for mid-July. Earlier this week, for southern parts of the UK, 41°C was being output. This is very unlikely to occur but the computer models are still outputting extreme heat for mid-July, with it likely to get into the 30s across the southern half (mostly SE) of the UK and occurring over several days. One thing to certainly note, is the lack of rainfall.

Latest (of one of the computer model’s outputs, but the most unlikely scenario) showing some record-breaking temperatures mid-month.

Remember UV is still high at this time of the year, regardless of the temperature.

Thursday: After a mild night, it will be a mostly cloudy but slightly warmer day, as we start an upward trend on the thermometer. Still that north-westerly airflow though. Brighter skies expected as the afternoon progresses. Max 19°C

Friday: Cloud drifting in from the north-west at times, some brightness here and there. Warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C

Weekend: More in the way of sunny spells after cloudy starts. Warmer.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny spells developing. Pleasantly warm with a mostly gentle breeze. Max 20°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and dry. A little warmer once more. Max 22°C

Outlook: High pressure to dominate. Lots of dry weather and sunny spells. If temperatures do become hot, then we could have a few home-grown thunderstorms to look out for. I would expect to see 24-27°C across the region during the first half of the week with temperatures into the 30s down south. As I mentioned, how high the mercury rises and how long the heatwave lasts is still uncertain and it all depends on the location of the high and its airflow. Some humid and muggy nights to come and evenings watering the garden.

NW England: Very little or no rain expected over the next 10 days.


Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of July 2022 at 6:45pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

A day of heat then perhaps out with a bang before cooling off with further showers – Thursday 23rd June 2022 – Sunday 26th June 2022

Hi all,

It’s been a lovely working week so far. Just how I like it. Plenty of summer sunshine and temperatures only peaking into the early-20s. We now need rain. We’ve only had 19mm this month and our gardens and my golf course are desperate. Things are about to change and it involves some rain, albeit tricky to pin down the forecast.

Thursday: A hot day with plenty of sunshine during the morning. Cloud will bubble up later in the day with the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two drifting up from the south. This risk continues into the night. A muggy night ahead with temperatures only slipping under 20°C before midnight. Max 27°C

The heat breaks later on Thursday with thunderstorms moving up from the south. How far north these get, keeping their intensity, is the question.

Friday: A cloudier day and cooler after a humid start. Any early thundery showers easing then a day of occasional bright spells with scattered showers developing again into the afternoon, perhaps thundery. Max 21°C

Weekend: Hard to forecast showers.

Saturday: Bright spells for the morning. Showers could pop up for the afternoon but this is tricky to forecast at this stage. With the low pressure out west we could well get away with a reasonable day. Breezy and cooler than recently but pleasantly warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C

Saturday not as bad as first feared?

Sunday: Quite unsettled with frequent showers developing into the afternoon with possible hail and thunder. Windy. Max 18°C

Showery Sunday on the cards.

Outlook: Temperatures around average with sunny spells and frequent hefty showers. Risk of thunderstorms. Hints of it warming up again later in the week but the risk of showers remains.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of June 2022 at 9:40pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Ex-Tropical Storm Alex to bring a breezy but reasonable weekend – Thursday 9th June 2022 – Sunday 12th June 2022

Hi all,

I’m back with the weekly blogs after a 2-week rest sunning myself in Rhodes.

It’s been a disappointing start to the meteorological summer with plenty of showers and breezy conditions. Temperatures still haven’t reached 20°C as we pass the first week of June.

Thursday: Early cloud and any rain clearing to sunny spells. Cloudier during the afternoon as some patchy showery rain pushes in towards evening. Breezy and quite warm. Max 18°C

Friday: Windy but warm with plenty of sunny spells. Unlucky to see a shower so mostly dry. Max 20°C

Weekend: Breezy, quite warm to start, and mostly dry but can’t rule out rogue showers.

Saturday: Windy once more with 30mph gusts. Sunny spells developing and it should stay dry. Just the chance of a shower on the hills. Max 18°C

Sunday: Cooler temperatures expected but similar weather with bright or sunny spells and generally dry conditions. More in the way of cloud compared to yesterday. Max 16°C

Outlook: No sign of a summer yet (maybe warming up for the last 10 days of June). Next week looks to be disappointing on the thermometer with temperatures between 15-17°C. Plenty of cloud around with a strong westerly breeze at times. Occasional showers throughout the week too. Take me back to Rhodes!

Below-average temperatures to start next week.

May 2022 Stats

Max 21.9°C (14th)
Min 5.6°C (28th)
Av. 12.1°C
Wettest 14mm (16th)
Av. Humidity 78%
Av. Barometer 1017.9 hPa
Max Gust 28mph
Av. Wind Direction WSW
Rain 51.2mm (below average)
Rain Registered Days 24 (grim)
Dry Days 7

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading. I hope you find these weekly blogs useful and any feedback is always welcome.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 8th June 2022 at 10:15pm
Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com