7-day heatwave to end early next week with a risk of thunderstorms – Thursday 11th August 2022 – Monday 15th August 2022

Hi all,

Well well well. Another heatwave. August normally disappoints, and OK there is still time left for August to be wet and miserable for the latter part of the month, but the next 5 days are set to be hot and increasingly humid after maximum temperatures reached 25°C on Tuesday and have risen since. Temperatures will make it into the 30s but it will not be as hot as the heatwave of July.

An amber weather warning for extreme heat is in force for Thursday to Sunday – issued by the Met Office

**UV levels are still HIGH (6/7) mostly between 12pm-2pm**

Nights will be warm and a little uncomfortable for sleeping but with relatively low dew points and humidity (until later in the weekend) it could have been a lot worse.

Thursday: The heatwave is in control now, as is high pressure, slam bang across the country bringing a hot day with plenty of sunshine. If you do head to the coast there will be some sea breezes. Max 30°C Min 17°C

Friday: Little change. Hot and sunny with a slight breeze from the east to north-east. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Weekend: More heatwave conditions.

Saturday: Yep, you guessed it another hot and sunny day with a breeze picking up. Max 31°C Min 17°C

Sunday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day; the sign of change. This will be the first signs of a breakdown to the current heatwave as low pressure drifts up from the south. Chance of some thundery showers breaking out later in the day but very isolated. Muggy. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Monday: A cooling theme with scattered thundery showers breaking out. Sunny spells in between. More bearable temperatures but it will be humid as fresher air will slowly arrive on Tuesday. Max 25°C

Outlook: A cooling trend as the weather turns showery with the high slipping away to the east and low pressure coming up from the south or south-west. Locally some hefty downpours and finally some relief from what was a prolonged dry and hot spell of weather. Temperatures returning to around normal values, max 20°C, with the Atlantic driving our weather during the latter part of the week.

The heatwave begins to break: Hit-and-miss thundery showers on Monday

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of August 2022 at 3:05pm
Images: Met Office and http://www.wxcharts.com

Recent much-needed rain to ease, as August shows hints of warming and drying up once more – Thursday 4th August 2022 – Sunday 7th August 2022

Hi all,

Last month was the driest July in England since 1935 according to the data collated by the Met Office. I mentioned numerous times that we were on for well below-average rainfall and even though we ended the month with 11 consecutive days of measurable rainfall, we only saw 38% of the average. August has started with two days of rain and a total of 16mm already. But, despite a few showers, the main trend now is to much drier conditions once more and warmer temperatures into next week.

Some computer models are certainly hinting at a heatwave returning from the second week of August and perhaps lasting 7-10 days, especially in southern (mostly SE) England. I did post a chart on Twitter the other day to show that a model predicts 40°C again. Of course this is an outlier and very unlikely, or in my own words last time, “will never happen”. My thoughts are again very similar, I can’t see it happening but with temperatures into the 30s looking likely once more, never say never.

It’s been a muggy few days but we are slowly slipping into fresher air now and the next few days will see temperatures below-average but I’ll take that as it will be matched with brighter skies and drier weather. Before today we have seen welcome rainfall deliver 46mm on 13 consecutive days.

Dove Stone reservoir earlier last week in need of rain. Image: @Edwards_TE on Twitter.
Here’s how July 2022 compared to previous years

Thursday: Fresher air under a north-westerly airflow. Morning-showers move through quickly leaving a breezy day with sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Max 19°C

Friday: A similar day. No humid air so pleasant in the sunshine as we see a day of bright spells and isolated showers. Most staying dry. Max 18°C

Weekend: Slowly warmer with high pressure building.

Saturday: Perhaps disappointing cloud amounts at times, limiting the amount of sunshine but dry and bright. Max 18°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and warmer. Slight breeze, again from the north-west so not feeling humid. Max 21°C

Outlook: A lot of dry weather with high pressure in control. The position of the high and the wind-flow will be important and determine how quickly temperatures rise. Temperatures expected to be in the early-20s with the chance of them creeping into the mid-20s later in the week. The warmth could introduce more in the way of humid air and this could set off an isolated home-grown shower, otherwise warm and dry.

Not a lot of rainfall expected over the next 10 days – any rain will now be in the form of showers
Another heatwave on the cards for parts of England & Wales? How far north and west the heat gets is still uncertain but it does look favourable that mid-August will be very warm to hot.

July 2022 Stats

Max 36.6°C (19th)
Min 9.7°C (16th)
Av. 17.0°C
Wettest 10mm (24th)
Av. Humidity 75%
Av. Barometer 1021.2 hPa
Max Gust 21.9mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 35mm (38% of av.)
Rain Registered Days 15
Dry Days 16

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 3rd of August 2022 at 5:50pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com