Settled, warm at times, variable cloud and plenty of sunny spells. No heatwave expected for now.

Hi all,

No detailed weekly blog this week, just a quick summary, as I’m away relaxing on my holiday in sunny Corfu.

The overall picture for the next 7 days or so, is high pressure in charge but it looks likely that the position of the high will not favour a heatwave due to the airflow around it (i.e. we don’t drag up any heat from the South). That said, it will still be settled and warm at times with sunny spells on offer. Clear skies at night will allow for a few fresh mornings. Little to no rain expected. HIGH UV levels throughout.

A decent outlook.
Apart from the odd hill-shower it’s a very dry end to May & into early-June.
It looks like the lengthy settled and warm spell might break around the 4th/5th June.

Updates will continue as always on Twitter, @ChadWeather, so head over to there for your local daily forecasts.

Thanks,

Jon

Blog Issued: Wednesday the 24th of May 2023 at 7:56pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Weather&Radar app.

Thanks to @Andy666666 on Twitter for the featured image.

Slipping into a more settled and warmer spell – Thursday 18th May 2023 – Sunday 21st May 2023

Hi all,

I’ve played golf this week and it’s safe to say it’s drying up and quickly. May hasn’t been too bad so far and rainfall amounts are on 22.2mm (65% of the mid-month average) and with not much rain ahead, it’s going to be a dry month.

High pressure is set to mostly dominate our weather over the coming week. There will be a few weather-fronts moving south-east across the region but they will weaken as they come through the high and most of the rain-bearing clouds will stay to the north-west of the UK. This means we have a settled period of weather ahead and with the sun strong (UV 6) and very warm at this time of year; it’s going to make for some pleasant days indeed. But, no sign of a heatwave, despite what some of the media suggest. Not yet, anyway.

Thursday: Sunny spells for the morning but generally it will tend to cloud over for the afternoon. Most staying dry but the chance of a shower towards the Peak District. Max 16°C

Friday: Cloudy with some patchy rain moving south-east for the morning. Bright or sunny spells for the afternoon as the cold-front clears away with the odd shower. Max 16°C

Showery rain moves south-east on Friday morning.

Weekend: Warmer with some decent sunny spells. High UV levels.

Saturday: Dry with sunny spells developing. Some fair-weather cloud bubbling up during the day. Warmer. Max 19°C

Another 20°C on the cards this weekend?

Sunday: Hopefully more in the way of sunshine albeit perhaps hazy at times. Variable and light winds. Feeling very warm in the sunshine. Max 20°C

Outlook: Not much rain expected as high pressure stays close by. So apart from the odd shower we can expect plenty of warm sunny spells and some cool nights. Just the chance of it becoming even warmer towards next weekend. Not heatwave material just yet but keep your eye on the tweets.

Very little rain over the next 7 days.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 17th of May at 6:30pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com.

Briefly warmer but still no sign of an early taste of Summer – Thursday 11th May 2023 – Sunday 14th May 2023

Hi all,

What no Bank Holiday Monday. I was getting used to that! Also, no 20°C recorded yet this Spring. We got close on Sunday, with a high of 19.6°C at Chadderton HQ. Although Saturday has a squeak, the outlook suggests the wait goes on, but in previous years we’ve waited longer.

Date of first 20°C in the year…

2013: 6th May
2014: 17th May
2015: 4th June
2016: 8th May
2017: 22nd May
2018: 18th April
2019: 19th April
2020: 10th April
2021: 31st March
2022: 14th May
2023: ………

Don’t forget that the sun is now as strong as it is in late-July with UV levels approaching high. Don’t forget your sun-cream on not just sunny days but also bright days. You can always see the burntime on my hourly stats on Twitter @OldhamWxStats.

Thursday: A day of some bright spells and showers breaking out, some heavy and possibly thundery with hail. Max 16°C

Friday: High pressure starts to build. So it should be a mostly dry day with bright and sunny spells developing, after a cloudy start. Just the chance of the odd shower on the hills. A fresh north-easterly breeze picking up, becoming quite gusty, taking the edge off the temperature. Max 16°C

Weekend: Saturday looks best.

Saturday: Sunny spells developing and it should all-in-all be a nice day, especially the afternoon with lighter winds. Feeling warm and 20°C seems unlikely, but at this stage not out of the question. Max 18°C

Parts sheltered to the SW of Manchester have a chance of reaching 20°C on Saturday.

Sunday: High pressure will decline so we’re looking at a cloudier day in prospect, with winds now southerly, it will still feel reasonably warm. Rain likely overnight. Max 17°C

Outlook: Apart from a nice day on Tuesday, the week will be generally unsettled with showers, and temperatures below average, 13-16°C. A very warm summer-like spell is not likely for the foreseeable.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of May 2023 at 6:35pm.

Rain to return then temperatures falling to below average – Thursday 20th April 2023 – Sunday 23rd April 2023

Hi all,

We’re halfway through Spring but some of the media outlets have started throwing clickbait articles out there for a mini-heatwave (they can’t happen, like a mini-tornado isn’t a thing) and 40°C temperatures this summer. Nothing but Jackanory for clicks. In truth, nobody knows what summer will bring, and temperatures reaching 40°C is about a 1% chance, so yes it’s possible but predicting what is coming in 4-5 days is hard enough let alone trying to say what summer will deliver, when we’re six weeks away from starting it, is just crazy. So you know the rule. Ignore and don’t click the link.

April can be a fickle month and we’ve certainly had some ups and downs already. Easter was nice, for most of it and we’ve had some decent sunny days but rain is never too far away. This current settled spell, albeit windy, had brought more welcome sunshine but again it’s not set to last, with rain returning before the weekend, then a cold northerly airflow drops the mercury into next week.

Thursday: A chilly start with a touch of ground-frost in the most sheltered of spots. Last of the sunny days with plenty on offer and remember it is now giving UV levels of 5, so don’t forget your suncream. It will again be windy, locally 30mph. Cloud will increase later into the evening. Pleasant where sheltered. Max 14°C

Friday: Cloud and a developing area of low pressure will bring rain. There will be the odd heavier burst and it will be showery at times. Feeling cooler with a fresh wind, again gusty. Max 10°C

A wet Friday on the cards as a low pressure begins to develop

Weekend: Not much to cheer about.

Saturday: With low pressure now in place it will be unsettled. Showers with some bright spells here and there. Not as windy as recent days if you’re looking for something to note as an improvement. Max 12°C

Sunday: Overall drier but it will still be cloudy with the odd area of patchy rain. Max 11°C

Outlook: Colder air will come down from the north during Sunday night leading to a chilly Monday with mostly cloudy skies. Tuesday sees some bright spells but cold with temperatures to stay in single-figures and the risk of a frost overnight is there. Similar on Wednesday before the temperature begins to recover during the latter stages of the week but it is looking to stay unsettled. The wait will be on for the next settled spell of warm sunshine and dry days.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of April 2023 at 4:42pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

A settled Easter but cloud to spoil the sunshine come the weekend and save those indoor chores for BHM – Thursday 6th April 2023 – Bank Holiday Monday 10th April 2023

Hi all,

What a lovely few days we had earlier this week. Frosty mornings then some welcome Spring sunshine. Perfect. The rain is back but not for long. The Easter Holiday is looking good enough but goes downhill into Bank Holiday Monday.

Thursday: Cloudy with patchy rain moving away early doors albeit slowly. Sunny spells then follow, with some showers in between, some heavy with a risk of thunder. Any showers should then ease leaving a drier afternoon with some bright spells before sunset. A cooler north-westerly breeze. Max 10°C

Good Friday: High pressure returns so a decent day is expected with plenty of pleasant sunshine and light winds after a misty start. Cloud increasing later in the day from the east. Max 12°C

Weekend: Cloud to spoil the sunshine.

Saturday: A misty start again with some low-cloud which is going to be stubborn to shift. This means a cloudier day with some bright or sunny spells eventually sneaking through into the afternoon. A little milder. Max 13°C

Sunday: Bright spells fading as cloud thickens. Feeling warmer where the sun pops out. It looks set to remain dry. Max 14°C

Bank Holiday Monday: Weather-fronts will slide in from the Atlantic and the high pressure will slip away. Cloudy with some rain expected followed by heavy showers. Max 12°C

Outlook: Little change into Tuesday/Wednesday but high pressure looks set to return slowly into the second half of the week but whether it’s full-on or just a ridge lasting a couple of days is yet to be decided.

March 2023 Stats

Max 14.1°C (30th)
Min -2.1°C (8th)
Av. 6.1°C
Wettest 16.6mm (13th)
Av. Humidity 83%
Av. Barometer 1007.3 hPa
Max Gust 34.5mph
Av. Wind Direction SW
Rain 120.6mm (145% of average)
Rain Registered Days 26
Dry Days 5

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 5th of April 2023 at 8:46pm.

More rain then a settled Easter? – Thursday 30th March 2023 – Sunday 2nd April 2023

Hi,

Spring is here but temperatures have been struggling so far but at least it’s become less chilly this week and we made it into the mid-teens. But that said, the milder air comes with the added ingredient of wind and rain or even the odd thunderstorm.

Some media report 20°C for Easter but the latest suggests it’s more likely to be an average one with temperatures around normal but will high pressure make an appearance?

Meanwhile, how are the next four days looking?

Thursday: Mostly cloudy for the morning. Bright spells for the afternoon with showers developing, some heavy with a chance of hail and thunder. Showers less frequent to the west. Very mild and breezy. Max 15°C

A showery Thursday could produce a thunderstorm or two.

Friday: Cloudy with an area of low pressure affecting the south of the UK meaning it’s an unsettled day with patchy rain at times. Mild but temperatures down on recent days as winds swing north-easterly. Max 13°C

Weekend: Sunday looking the better day.

Saturday: Another cloudy day with rain or drizzle at times. Lighter winds with temperatures dropping away with a northerly airflow. Max 11°C

Sunday: Hopefully some breaks in the cloud allowing for a better day especially to the west. It should be mostly dry. Max 11°C

Outlook: Like last week Monday looks a good day with bright or sunny spells. It goes downhill once again Tuesday onwards with periods of showers or longer spells of rain. Staying mild. Easter weekend looking changeable for now but there are hints that high pressure will build in leading to a settled spell of weather but nothing notably warm.

High pressure to build over the UK for the Easter break? Fingers crossed.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 29th of March 2023 at 7:10pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.wetterzentrale.de

Showery with isolated thunderstorms then cooler – Thursday 23rd March 2023 – Sunday 26th March 2023

Hi all,

March is turning out to be a wet month and more rain, in the form of showers, to come over the coming days. After that, not much hope of a drier spell yet. It would be nice to slip in some Spring sunshine for a few days. UV levels are now rising and reached 3 today as the sun gains strength. Almost time for lunchtime sunbathing sessions, if and when, we enter a more settled period. For now, more water for the gardens and reservoirs.

Thursday: After a bright start heavy showers will brew and move up from the southwest. It will also be windy, 30mph gusts and some of the showers will be heavy with the chance of hail and thunder and lightning. Mild. Max 13°C

Isolated downpours on Thursday & Friday.

Friday: Similar day with scattered thundery showers developing and windy, especially gusty during downpours with localised 40-45mph possible. Max 12°C

Weekend: Colder airmass, eventually.

Saturday: A slack area of low pressure out west will bring a less windier day and a mostly cloudy picture. With winds more westerly or northwesterly at times it will be cooler. Scattered showers mean it’s unlikely to be a dry day. Max 10°C

Sunday: Breezy and some bright spells for the morning. Showers for the afternoon, the odd heavy one. Cooler again as winds turn northerly. As skies clear later it could be cold enough for a local air-frost but certainly a ground-frost. Max 9°C

It’ll turn colder on Sunday and it’ll last a couple of days before temperatures return to the mid-teens later next week.

Outlook: The unsettled theme continues into next week with plenty of cloud and showery rain at times. Cool at first but temperatures recovering into the mid-teens later in the week. It’s not a rise in temperature we want, it’s a few dry and brighter days but for now the wait continues.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of March 2023 at 8:30pm.

Images: http://www.netweather.tv & http://www.wxcharts.com

Is that the last of the snow? – Thursday 16th March 2023 – Sunday 19th March 2023

Hi all,

It’s certainly been a wintry week with Thursday and into Friday morning seeing some large snowfall totals, and drifts, especially so to the north-east of Manchester. We also saw some sleet & snow showers in days that followed and then a lovely hailstorm (graupel) with snow and thundersnow on its back edge on Tuesday morning. But, with milder air now in place and rain and more rain to come, have we seen the last of the snow?

A couple of photos of the snow drifts up in the hills last Friday morning. Images: @RhodesRuth and @Hoggy80 on Twitter
But now a change with 35-50mm of rain expected over the next 6 days.
We have a weather warning in place for persistent rain: Wednesday evening and into Thursday.

Thursday: Cloudy with heavy rain continuing for the morning at least. It should eventually ease during the late-afternoon to leave some patchy drizzle. Windy and mild with a south-westerly airflow. Max 11°C

Friday: A fresh southerly breeze will bring up some showers into the afternoon after a mostly dry and cloudy morning. Very mild for the time of year with some favourable spots seeing the mid-teens. Max 14°C

Very mild on Friday making it the warmest day of the year so far but don’t be expecting wall-to-wall sunshine.

Weekend: More rain to come.

Saturday: Low pressure and with winds eventually swinging more westerly it won’t be quite as mild. Generally cloudy with scattered showers. Max 12°C

Sunday: The lack of sunshine continues with mostly cloudy skies. Although the morning seems dry for some, the cloud will tend to thicken quickly and bring a spell of rain, heavy at times from the southwest which could warrant a warning. Cooler but not by much. Max 10°C

Outlook: Staying generally unsettled and rainfall amounts totting up. Temperatures remaining just above normal or even mild at times. Further spells of showers or rain with snow very unlikely. Could well be the last of it, but you know, we always get the odd wintry shower even in early-April so never say never.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always and for everyone’s input over the past week with their snowy photos, videos and reports on local conditions on the roads.

Chadderton – Lovely scene after heavy graupel on Tuesday. Image: @ChadWeather.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of March 2023 at 4:52pm.

Images: BBC Weather, Weather and Radar UK, http://www.wxcharts.com & off Twitter @RhodesRuth and @Hoggy80.

Disruptive snow for some before milder air wins – Thursday 9th March 2023 – Sunday 12th March 2023

Hi all,

It’s been an up-and-down few days of forecasts, with disruptive snow due on Thursday one minute, then not the next, now it’s on the cards again, but as it goes with snow events; there can be a massive difference between locations depending on the height above sea level. Don’t be surprised to see sleet/wet-snow in Manchester city centre with not much on the ground compared to snow ankle-deep just a few miles away towards, and on the Pennine routes.

This is a great website for working out your height above sea level which could make all the difference between rain or snow tomorrow.

https://en-gb.topographic-map.com/map-kb57/England/

So, what does the next 4 days and beyond have in store?

This forecast is subject to change as is the current set-up of the weather with cold and mild air battling it out across our shores. You can always see the very latest on Twitter.

Thursday: AM: Cloudy with rain, sleet and snow. A graphic from BBC Weather highlights this well. Rain (W) Snow (E – hillier). Pulses of precipitation patchy at times especially so in the west. PM: Snow is expected to continue & perhaps become more extensive (late-evening) to lower-levels that saw rain/sleet earlier. It will also be windy with gusts on the western side of the Pennines exceeding 40mph later in the day leading to blizzard-conditions. Windchill of -6°C.

Yellow & Amber warnings in place.

The snow is likely to cause travel disruption.

Max 2°C Min 0°C

A snowy Thursday (lunchtime) map especially across Pennine routes. Rain for the morning is more favourable out west.
Predicted snow depths by Friday morning. Over a foot is possible in places across the hills. If you plan to drive over the M62 on Thursday PM/Friday AM, maybe change your plans.
Another idea on snow depths from @Met4CastUK on Twitter. This is for areas < 200M giving you an idea of what the accumulations might be.
Here’s a close-up of the boundary of the yellow and amber warnings.

Friday: Early sleet and snow fading during the morning after leaving a good dumping in places. Sunny spells arriving into the afternoon. Clear skies overnight leading to widespread ice and a hard frost. Max 4°C Min -4°C

Yellow warning...
Yellow warning continued.
Amber warning

Weekend: Risk of hill-snow then milder.

Saturday: After a dry, icy and frosty start with some sunny spells, cloud amounts will increase as another weather-front swings in from the west, albeit slowly and will bump into the cold air. Hazy bright spells into the afternoon but it should stay dry until overnight when patchy rain, and some hill-snow moves in. Max 5°C Min 1°C

Sunday: Finally much milder air returns from the south-west with windy conditions and showers at times, especially later. A thaw of any snow left on the hills. Max 10°C Min 6°C

Outlook: Remaining unsettled with spells of rain/showers at times and breezy. Incursions of colder air means snow on the hills can’t be ruled out. I’ve been putting off cutting the lawns and planting seeds etc., holding out for warmer weather but there’s certainly no sign of that yet! It’s not unusual to have a chilly March and this one, so far, is no exception.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as always for reading.
Jon

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com, BBC Weather, Met Office and @Met4CastUK on Twitter.
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 8th of March 2023 at 9pm.

A blast of winter on the way but no Beast from the East – Thursday 2nd March 2023 – Sunday 5th March 2023

Hi all,

Welcome to Spring. In weather terms, this is the new season but it never means warm weather overnight. It’s not unusual to get a cold spell in March and this year looks like being no different as computer models are now coming to an agreement for colder weather, yes cold enough for frost and snow, next week. Tuesday/Wednesday seem to be the days when the cold spell will peak.

Forecasting the exact areas of where snow will fall is very tricky and it’s hard to predict even at 48 hours out. So look out on Twitter for updates as we have one final wintry spell before I can plant my seeds and cut the lawns.

Snow showers – Colder next week with wintry showers from the NNE on a bitter wind.
February 2023 Weather Statistics from the Met Office

Thursday: After a cloudy start it looks a better day than recently with some sunny spells. Also, it shouldn’t be as windy as it’s been recently. Still feeling chilly. Max 7°C

Friday: Back to the overcast days by the looks of it with limited brightness and just the chance of drizzle here and there. Max 8°C

Weekend: Starting to get cooler.

Saturday: More of a northerly flow now but still a lot of cloud. Some bright spells sheltered from the breeze. Max 7°C

Sunday: Mostly cloudy and cold with the wind picking up again. Chance of a few wintry showers, especially in the east, falling as snow above 300M. The beginning of the cold snap. Max 6°C

After the recent SSW, cold air looks set to flood down across the UK into next week with the risk of snow.

Outlook: Now this is where it gets interesting. High pressure that’s been around for a good while (check out my av. pressure value for February below) will push away to sit to our NW and allow colder air to feed down from the Arctic (so not a Beast from the East set up). So, temperatures dropping and with low pressure close by to our east, we could see some wintry showers move in with a biting wind-chill. Too early to say who will see snow and how much but it will favour higher ground intitially.

Later in the week, with the cold air in place, milder air will try to bring bands of rain in from the south-west, which could lead to some significant snowfall as it bumps into the colder air. Again, details far too uncertain at this stage but we could well see a snowfall event before the new season springs into action.

Low pressure & milder air pushing in from the SW and bumping into the cold air means the chance of some significant snow is possible. When, where and how much is still unknown.

February 2023 Stats – Chadderton

Max 11.6°C (17th)
Min -0.7°C (6th)
Av. 6.2°C
Wettest 5.4mm (10th)
Av. Humidity 84%
Av. Barometer 1028.4 hPa
Max Gust 28mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 16.6mm (only 18% of average)
Rain Registered Days 13
Dry Days 15

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 1st of March 2023 at 7:15pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & The Met Office.