Unsettled Outlook – Thursday 14th October 2021 – Sunday 17th October 2021

Hi all,

It’s been a quiet week but frustratingly cloudy and damp at times, although rainfall amounts remain low and temperatures nothing notably cold or warm.

High pressure has been in charge of our weather, but cloud has been dragged around the top edge and down across the region on a northwesterly breeze hence the lack of sunny skies. With high pressure in control we have cut off the Jet Stream, which normally brings spells of wet and windy weather, and it will continue like that for a little longer but change is on the way next week.

The final third of October is likely to see increasing amounts of rainfall and some windy spells.

Thursday: Another mostly cloudy day with pockets of spit-spot rain or drizzle. Breezy. Max 15°C

Friday: Cloudy with patchy rain moving south initially, followed by colder air but lovely blue skies and sunny spells. A fresh feel with a northerly breeze. Cold for the first part of the night with a ground-frost forming before cloud increases from the southwest again. Max 12°C

Colder air spreads down from the North during Friday

Weekend: Cloudy conditions return.

Saturday: Cloud thickening from the southwest with some rain later in the day. Doesn’t look particularly heavy. Becoming milder again. Max 14°C

Sunday: A cloudy and quite warm day for the time of year with some bright spells. Max 16°C

Outlook: The Jet Stream looks set to return to influence our week with periods of rain or showers. Some brighter and drier slots in between and quite breezy at times. Temperatures mild to very mild at first but signs of cooler or colder conditions later in the week.

The Jet Stream is back controlling our weather next week

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of October 2021 at 5:50pm.
Images: http://www.netweather.tv

Short-lived Warmth then Much Cooler but Mostly Dry – Thursday 7th October 2021 – Sunday 10th October 2021

September ended on a very wet note but overall it was another drier-than-average month which contained some hot days early on; in fact hotter than anything we experienced in August. 

Ex-hurricane Sam will disturb the Jet Stream and head between Iceland and the UK this week, allowing for some very warm air to come across the region for a couple of days. After that it’s looking settled, as we keep most of the weather fronts away to the west but I am expecting a lot of cloud and a few misty or foggy mornings.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with some patchy rain or drizzle in a few sports prone to the south-westerly airflow. On the plus side, it will be warm for the time of year, with temperatures around 5 degrees above average. Max 20°C

Friday: Early cloud, perhaps some patchy rain again, especially the further west you are. Brighter spells for the afternoon and feeling warm despite the breeze. Max 19°C

Weekend: We lose the warmth eventually.

Saturday: Patchy rain moving slowly southeast displacing the warm air late-in-the-day. Some areas staying dry. Max 18°C

Sunday: Drier with plenty of cloud. Some brightness but notably cooler with a north-westerly airflow. Max 15°C

Outlook: Originally it looked like it would be turning warmer again as next week progressed but it’s looking pretty cool at times with a risk of a ground-frost midweek depending on cloud-cover. A lot of dry weather as high pressure builds, which could well turn out to be a ‘cloudy high’ or anticyclonic gloom. Pockets of drizzle where low-cloud sits.

High pressure builds next week but it will be cooler with the air from the NW
Some chilly nights inland next week, especially if cloud breaks

September 2021 Stats

Max 27.9°C (7th)
Min 6.7°C (30th)
Av. 15.2°C
Wettest 32mm (30th)
Av. Humidity 82%
Av. Barometer 1018.3 hPa
Max Gust 26.5mph (30th)
Av. Wind Direction SW
Rain 65.4mm (71% of average)
Rain Registered Days 13
Dry Days 17

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for your latest weather forecast. 

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of October 2021 at 5:05pm
Image: https://wxcharts.com & https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/

Well and truly Autumnal. Will we see Storm Arwen? – Thursday 30th September 2021 – Sunday 3rd October 2021

Hi all,

The weekly blog returns, after I spent last week on the annual 4-day golfing holiday, this time to Cumbria and north Lancashire. Apart from the odd spit-spot in the wind we managed the whole trip without rain. I’m just glad we went last week and not this. At least next year, fingers crossed, I’ll be back in the Spanish warmth.

So, last week’s warm and mostly settled spell has come to an abrupt end this week, as rain and showers have piled in since Monday.

The last 10 days of temperatures and rainfall.

Thursday: Heavy rain for the morning and windy too. The afternoon sees the rain turn more showery and the winds will eventually ease. Cool. Max 14°C Min 11°C

Friday: Another band of rain for the early hours and this will clear during the morning. Plenty of sunny spells expected after this but still some isolated showers. Windy and feeling fresh. Max 13°C Min 7°C

Weekend: More rain and wind on the way. How windy it gets is uncertain at this stage but the potential is there for our first named-storm of the season.

Saturday afternoon looking particularly windy and wet

Saturday: A bright start with a few showers then wind and rain will spread ENE for the afternoon and evening. Potential for gales (gusts 35-45mph). Max 15°C Min 8°C

Sunday: Sunshine and showers. Some of these heavy and possibly thundery with hail. Windy with a risk of gales, 40-45mph gusts, during the morning. Max 13°C Min 7°C

*** How windy it is depends on how deep the low pressure becomes and its track. So keep an eye on Twitter for updates and possible warnings. ***

Outlook: Remaining unsettled with further rain or showers. With hurricane Sam affecting the Jet Stream there is a chance of high pressure building later in the week, bringing sunshine and a respite from the rain, but don’t hold your breath, as this could be short-lived and restricted to southern parts of the UK.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 29th September 2021 at 8:10pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.eu

Some rain but quite warm – Thursday 16th September 2021 – Sunday 19th September 2021

Hi all,

There’s a bit of a battle-ground continuing across the UK. Low pressure is trying to get in from the Atlantic over the next few days but high pressure to the northeast continues to weaken the weather fronts as they arrive.

Thursday: Any early mist or fog will lift into low-cloud which will break to allow some sunny spells to develop. Feeling pleasantly warm. Max 19°C

Friday: A weather front will be moving in from the west but weakening as the day progresses. So after a dry start there will be some sunny spells. Cloud will thicken towards late-afternoon and some patchy rain is possible overnight. Breeze picking up. Warm. Max 20°C

Weekend: Some rain.

Saturday: Early cloud and a few showers will move away and hopefully the cloud will break to allow for some bright spells, but then more showers are likely to develop. Max 19°C

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with a few showers. Max 19°C

Outlook: Low pressure to the northwest of the UK will try to send bands of rain or showers southeast across the region. With high pressure to the northeast and southwest of the UK, this will act as a barrier, attempting to keep the fronts at bay and if any fronts do make it southeast across the region, the high will help to weaken them and turn any rain light and patchy. In between all of this, sunny spells and maximum temperatures remaining around average, 17-18°C. No sign of the first Autumn frost just yet or an Indian Summer.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and weather warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of September 2021 at 10pm.

Thundery breakdown – Thursday 9th September 2021 – Sunday 12th September 2021

Hi all,

August, these days, turns out to be a poor month and 2021 was no exception with below average temperatures and a real lack of sunshine. That said, the rainfall amounts were below normal as the month ended with 10 dry days. But how did our Summer compare to recent Summers. I have data, for complete Summers, since 2013; so I’ll try and do some stats on this for next week’s blog.

Thursday: After two hot and humid days the weather breaks with low pressure drifting in bringing thundery showers with some localised downpours (warning in place). Early morning showers clear to a drier spell with some bright spells. Heavy thundery showers form during the afternoon. Cooler temperatures but still feeling muggy. Max 21°C

Thundery showers developing on Thursday afternoon

Friday: Mostly cloudy with some bright spells but showers developing as the day progresses, again heavy with the chance of hail and thunder and lightning. Max 19°C

Low pressure remains in control on Friday leading to further downpours

Weekend: A quieter weekend ahead.

Saturday: Light winds and although there will be plenty of cloud there will be some bright spells. Chance of a rogue shower in the hills. Max 19°C

Sunday: Little change albeit cooler. Mostly dry with some brightness. Max 17°C

Outlook: Ex-hurricane Larry will be mixing in with the Jet Stream so throws some uncertainty into our forecast. Latest model outputs suggests the low pressure swings to our NW allowing pressure to build. So a few days of settled weather with sunny spells, before a return to showery conditions with temperatures around normal. 

August 2021 Stats

Max 21.4°C (2nd)
Min 0.0°C (22nd)
Av. 15.0°C
Wettest 22.6mm (8th)
Av. Humidity 82%
Av. Barometer 1017.4 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph (8th)
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 70.6mm
Rain Registered Days 16
Dry Days 15

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings. 

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 8th of September 2021 at 9:05pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Summer Ends Well – Thursday 26th August 2021 – Bank Holiday Monday 30th August 2021

Hi all,

Finally August is delivering some settled weather. OK it’s a bit cloudy at times, as some cloud feeds in from the North Sea, but the warm sunny spells are welcome after the first two-thirds of the month were so poor.

The sun might only be as strong as mid-April but the UV is still high enough for sun-cream to be needed, mostly between 11am-3pm, on sunny days.

Thursday & Friday: Some sunny spells, especially in the west, with some troublesome cloud at times further east. Feeling warm in any sunshine. Max 18-20°C

No measurable rainfall over the next 10 days.

Weekend: Hopefully more in the way of sunshine.

Saturday: Any morning cloud burning off to a warm day with plenty of sunny spells. Max 20°C

Sunday: More of the same. Warm with sunny spells and dry. Some areas of frustrating cloud at times. Max 20°C

Bank Holiday Monday: It will be dry with bright or sunny spells. Cloud amounts hard to predict but likely to be a cloudy start again. Max 19°C

The Jet Stream, which brings unsettled conditions, is set to avoid the UK for the next 10 days at least.

Outlook: It looks like high pressure will continue to dominate the weather for a few more days, perhaps most of next week. So, more of the same, pleasant temperatures, variable cloud and sunny spells at times.

Thanks for reading.
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 25th of August 2021 at 8:50pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.meteociel.fr/

Will the Final Weeks of Summer Deliver? – Thursday 19th August 2021 – Sunday 22nd August 2021

Hi all,

What a dreadful month August is turning out to be. The average maximum temperature for August is 19.5°C. Currently we are sitting at 18.2°C, so much cooler than normal and with limited sunshine. Rainfall is above average so far too but with a drier end to the month looking likely, this figure could well level itself out. Before that, yet more rain to come.

Thursday – A cloudy start with some drizzle/rain. A spell of drier, and hopefully a little brighter for a time, weather either side of lunchtime before showery rain returns into the afternoon. Poor temperatures again. Max 18°C

Friday: A few showers possible early on then a mostly cloudy day once more, with a few bright spells. Temperatures still disappointing for August but signs of it warming up a touch. Max 21°C

Weekend: Becoming unsettled and wet.

Turning wet Saturday evening with rain; followed by thundery showers on Sunday.

Saturday: We should get away with a mostly dry morning with some warm bright spells as temperatures begin to lift under the influence of a southerly/southeasterly airflow. However, the afternoon looks set to go downhill as showers arrive, some heavy followed by more persistent rain later. Warm and humid. Max 22°C

Warm and humid for a time on Saturday with some heat dragged in from the continent for southeastern parts of the UK. It’s this that we need to tap into, for a heatwave and that isn’t on the horizon.

Sunday: An unsettled day is likely with low pressure in charge. Showers, perhaps thundery with some hail or even longer spells of rain. Slightly cooler but a muggy feel overall. Max 19°C

Outlook: Some rain at first, then, this has been trying to happen for a few days/weeks now, high pressure builds in from the northwest and settles our weather down. However, with the air coming in from the northeast/east, temperatures are expected to remain around average with quite a lot of cloud at times. We only need the high to position itself favourably and introduce a south-to-southeasterly airflow to lift temperatures. That would be the only chance of a heatwave, which for now, is just wishful thinking.

High pressure looks favourable to build giving us a drier and more settled end to August. How warm it is, or hot, all depends on its location.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of August 2021 at 5:30pm
Images: https://www.meteociel.fr/ & https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/

No Heatwave on the cards – Thursday 12th August 2021 – Sunday 15th August 2021

Hi all,

August. The final summer month and so far so… poor, with only a couple of days in the 20s and half-a-month’s worth of rain falling in just 3 days. It can only get better, right?

August so far

Thursday: Sunny spells for the morning. Cloud arriving from the southwest during the day but it is expected to remain dry but a breezy with 20-25mph gusts. Max 21°C

Friday: Windy with some bright spells. Most places dry but the odd shower can’t be ruled out. Cooler. Max 19°C

Weekend: Wet Saturday.

Saturday: An area of rain was set to move across Southern England but latest models suggest it comes right across NW England, so a cloudy day with rain at times. Max 18°C

Rain predicted further north that originally thought for Saturday

Sunday: Sunny spells and a fresh northwesterly breeze which will blow in some showers for the afternoon. Max 18°C

Outlook: Breezy on Monday with bright spells and the odd shower, especially in the East. As the week goes on high pressure will try and build and move in from the southwest/west but this isn’t certain. The week looks mostly bright and dry but amounts of warm sunshine will increase if the high builds.

High pressure out West next week trying to move in
No heatwave on the cards – Max temps at midday on Thursday the 19th of August

Thanks for reading and you can follow me for forecasts on Twitter, @ChadWeather.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 11th of August 2021 at 8:25pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com; http://www.weatheronline.co.uk

Plenty of rain – Thursday 5th August 2021 – Sunday 8th August 2021

Hi all,

The final month of Summer is here and to be fair it’s been a mixed bag so far with some warm sunshine and isolated downpours or thunderstorms. If you’ve been lucky enough to miss the showers then your time has come.

Thursday: Low pressure comes in from the Atlantic. After a dry start it will become breezy and bands of showers or slightly longer spells of rain will move north-eastwards from late-morning. Some of this could be heavy and thundery. More showers follow later in the day with bright spells in between. Max 19°C

Low pressure rules the roost over the next 5 days

Friday: Very unsettled for the time of year. Frequent showers, merging at times, with perhaps hail and thunder and lightning (warning in place). Max 18°C

Weekend: Slowly improving

Saturday: I’m golfing early; so hopeful of a dry start but it isn’t expected to last as further bands of showers come in on a fresh breeze. Again, some heavy and thundery. Max 18°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and showers still around, but fewer are expected, so a bit of an improvement. Max 18°C

A lot of rain expected over the next 10 days

Outlook: Little change early on with sunny spells and showers. Midweek looks improved with a couple of better days before low pressure returns with its showers or periods of rain in time for the weekend. Meh.

July 2021 Stats

Max 30.0°C (22nd)
Min 10.8°C (28th)
Av. 17.2°C
Av. Dew Pt 13.2°C
Wettest 32.4mm (4th)
Av. Humidity 79%
Av. Barometer 1015.1 hPa
Max Gust 20.7mph (29th)
Av. Wind Direction WNW
Rain 89.4mm
Rain Registered Days 12
Dry Days 19

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts.

Thanks for reading,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 4th of August 2021 at 9pm
Images: https://wxcharts.com/

Reasonable weekend but a poor outlook – Thursday 29th July 2021 – Sunday 1st August 2021

Hi all,

After the heatwave came the thunderstorms and now much cooler and unsettled conditions are in charge; all thanks to low pressure. Some media report the heat to return soon, but we all know that is guesswork. Nothing on the horizon at this stage to suggest sunnier, summery and hot weather returns.

Thursday: Any morning showers easing to some bright spells and a drier slot. Showers or patchy rain developing into the afternoon, especially to the north but not as lively as Wednesday with thunderstorms unlikely. Feeling cool & windy with 30mph gusts. Max 17°C

Temperatures much cooler than what we have been used to over the last few weeks

Friday: Some unusual weather for the time of year, strong to gale-force winds and heavy rain, will affect southern parts of the UK but we escape that. Otherwise it’s a day of scattered showers, some heavy and perhaps thundery. Some bright spells in between and a little less cool. Max 19°C

Weekend: Showers slowly decreasing in numbers but not disappearing.

Showers still around this weekend but the heaviest and thundery ones confined to the S & E of the UK

Saturday: Cloudy with a few bright spells. Showers are on the decline but I’m sure we will still catch a few today. Breezy but reasonably warm in any sunshine. Max 20°C

Sunday: A little cooler but a similar day. Plenty of cloud, some brightness at times and still the chance of a shower, especially towards the hills. Max 18°C

Outlook: A slight ridge of high pressure will mean Monday should be dry with pleasant sunny spells. Tuesday mostly cloudy but rain later and then the remainder of the week doesn’t look very summer-like at all, with the weather turning unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. Temperatures remaining cool at times and the potential for a wet and windy weekend.

Early indications show it’s wet and windy next weekend

As always, look out for updates on Twitter, @ChadWeather.

Thanks for reading,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 28th of July 2021 at 8:45pm
Images: http://www.weatheronline.co.uk; https://www.netweather.tv/