Winter is here – Cold for the foreseeable, but how cold later next week as the chance of seeing some snow increases? – Thursday 1st December 2022 – Sunday 4th December 2022

Hi all,

Winter, meteorologically-speaking is here. We ended Autumn as we start Winter, with below-average temperatures and with the weather set in a pattern. A huge high pressure across eastern Europe, originally building over Scandinavia is controlling our weather. When this happens, we can drag in cloud off the still relatively warm North Sea and hence have days on end of little change. The doom and gloom can come in the form of fog/low-cloud especially with little wind and with any brightness to the west or even as far west as the coast. We are currently in this predicament but slight changes are on the way.

Below average temperatures for the foreseeable.

Thursday: Similar to recent days. A lot of cloud, low-cloud on the hills, mostly overcast and cold. That said temperatures could be a degree of two up on recent days. Max 7°C

Friday: A slight easterly breeze in place with plenty of cloud being dragged in from the North Sea. The cloud could be thick enough at times for the odd patch of drizzle first-off. As the day progresses, little change but perhaps the odd bright spell to the west. Max 6°C

Weekend: Slowly colder with the breeze picking up leading to a windchill and showers possible.

Saturday: Generally cloudy with a raw easterly breeze. Mostly dry with any lucky spots seeing limited brightness, mainly to the west. Dry but the odd shower may occur. Max 5°C

Sunday: Overcast with a keen wind and cold with a feels-like temperature of 0°C. Can’t rule out an isolated shower which would be wintry on the tops of the Pennines. Max 5°C

Outlook: Very little change for the next couple of days but after that does look interesting as there’s the potential for high pressure to build towards Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia which will allow for a cold northerly airflow to develop, straight from the Arctic. Nothing extremely cold but cold enough for a few snow showers, even to lower-levels. Temperatures look set to remain below-average with the risk of wintry showers increasing. The second week of December could see a battlefield developing. Will milder air push in from the south-west or could it turn much colder from the east; not exactly what we need with energy prices! Watch this space.

Cold air engulfs Europe, including the UK, over the next 10 days.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 30th of November 2022 at 7:50pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Little change but cold lurking in eastern Europe brings snow to the charts – Thursday 24th November 2022 – Sunday 27th November 2022

Hi all,

The typical autumnal weather continued over the past week with further rain taking the month total to 95mm. The recent pattern is set to continue then a few models are hinting at a drier, more settled start to December with a possible cold spell with frost and fog on the horizon.

Colder weather lurks to the east. If this potential hangs around don’t be surprised to hear the phrase Beast from the East in the media again 🤣.

Thursday: A bright start with some sunny spells. Winds will increase, locally 35mph later, as cloud thickens from the southwest. A band of rain, some heavy will move through the region during the afternoon. Showers follow later. Max 9°C

Friday: Not a bad day with sunny spells after morning-showers fade away. Windy though. Max 10°C

Weekend: Rain returns but milder.

Saturday: Any brightness fading as cloud thickens into the afternoon. Rain will arrive later and it will bring with it milder air from the south-west. Windy. Max 11°C

Sunday: Early rain clears to a mostly cloudy picture and the odd scattered shower. Breezy. Max 11°C

Outlook: Becoming cooler again with temperatures around or perhaps just below average. Some rain or showers at first but high pressure is favourable to build in and settle things down; so becoming drier and with some frost and fog where skies clear. Beyond that there are a few hints of a cold easterly or north-easterly airflow setting up which could deliver the first cold spell of winter. For now though, as always, it’s too far away to confirm.

A cold Europe and the pool of cold builds into next week but how far west will it get? First blast of Winter or will this idea disappear from the models soon?
Just for fun: With a cold easterly comes snow showing on the charts. Shame this is 16 days away and unlikely to verify.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of November 2022 at 6:30pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Drier for a time and exceptionally mild – Thursday 10th November 2022 – Sunday 13th November 2022

Hi all,

After a wet October it’s been quite a wet start to November too. We’re in for some mainly dry days now but it will be very windy too, and, as mentioned, very mild. Signs of it turning a bit cooler next week and with it the possibility of severe gales in places and yet more rain.

Thursday: After a very mild night the day will continue on the warmer-than-average front with moist southwesterly winds. These winds will be gusty, 30-35mph and will bring plenty of cloud. Risk of some drizzle, especially on the hills. Max 16°C

Thursday night’s minimum temperatures could well be record-breaking for November across parts of the UK, especially sheltered from the wind and in favourable locations.

Temperatures still around the mid-teens during the early hours of Friday morning

Friday: Another very mild and cloudy day with gusty winds. It should be dry for most and hopefully some bright spells later in the day as cloud breaks from the south. Max 16°C

Weekend: Sunnier Saturday.

Saturday: A southeasterly wind will bring in slightly cooler air and also drier air leading to a dry day with plenty of sunny spells developing. Sounds like a day in the garden to get it ready for winter. Max 13°C

Sunday: Bright morning but cloud increasing as the day wears on. Fresh breeze. Max 13°C

Outlook: Becoming increasingly unsettled with low pressures coming in off the Atlantic. These will need monitoring as there is a risk of them becoming deep and bringing spells of heavy rain and gales or even severe gales. After a mild start it looks set to become cooler or even colder with max temperatures around 9-11°C.

The potential for some deep areas of low pressure later next week

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 9th of October 2022 at 5:35pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Chilly with a better end to the working week before turning unsettled again – Thursday 3rd November 2022 – Sunday 6th November 2022

Hi all,

October turned into a wet month with rainfall totals above average. It was the wettest month since February with 115.6mm of rain. It was also notably very mild to warm at times. We didn’t reach the dizzy heights of temperatures into the 20s like they did down south but plenty of days saw the mid-teens and night temperatures also staying into double-figures.

November has started off on a windy and cooler note with temperatures more around normal. There isn’t any sign of significantly colder weather on the way despite media reports.

Thursday: A fresh start with plenty of sunny spells and perhaps a rogue shower. Clouds will increase and a scattering of showers will develop. Feeling chilly. Breezy but not as windy as yesterday. Max 11°C

Friday: A decent day with sunny spells. Cloudier at times later, with the chance of a few showers off the Irish Sea, but skies clearing again overnight and becoming cold with the risk of a ground-frost in rural and sheltered spots. Lighter winds. Max 11°C

Weekend: Turning more unsettled again.

Saturday: After a dry start, cloud will thicken from the west and the winds will increase. Rain will spread east as the day progresses, heavy at times then turning patchy towards evening. Apart from a few showers I’m hopeful that it could be mainly dry in time for the bonfires and fireworks. Max 12°C

Sunday: Windy with bright spells and showers developing. Max 12°C

Outlook: It’s looking wet with rain or showers on Monday and Tuesday but with the strong and gusty wind coming from the south or south-west it will become milder again, 14-15°C. Later in the week there’s a chance high pressure will build as the Jet Stream buckles. So fingers crossed for something drier and more settled but remaining milder-than-average for now.

High pressure building second half of next week?

October 2022 Stats

Max 16.7°C (29th)
Min 5.6°C (18th)
Av. 11.8°C
Wettest 24.8mm (5th)
Av. Humidity 86%
Av. Barometer 1012.7 hPa
Max Gust 31.1mph
Av. Wind Direction SSW
Rain 115.6mm (above average)
Rain Registered Days 26
Dry Days 5

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Until next week. Thanks for reading.
Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 2nd of November 2022 at 8:30pm.
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Showery, mild & windy – Thursday 27th October 2022 – Sunday 30th October 2022

Hi all,

A very mild but mobile outlook as bands of rain push north-east over the next few days, with brighter skies following on behind. Timings of these areas of rain will change over the coming days so look out for updates on Twitter.

Not only will the daytime maximum temperatures be above-average, we will have mild nights. Once we enter November, temperatures start to return to more nearer to normal, as winds swing westerly, perhaps north-westerly at times.

Thursday: Showery rain will move through during the morning. The afternoon will consist of bright spells and a few showers. Windy but not as gusty as Wednesday. Very mild. Max 17°C

Friday: Another windy day and with temperatures into the mid-teens. Sunny spells and showers are likely again, some heavy and more frequent during the morning. Max 16°C

Weekend: Little change.

Saturday: Cloudy with a spell of rain easing into the afternoon but staying particular overcast. Very mild and breezy. Max 17°C

Sunday: At this stage Sunday looks drier as we are sandwiched between rain out west and to our east. A strong southerly wind but a little cooler, signs of things to come. Bright spells at times. Max 15°C

Outlook: It looks like it will turn even more unsettled with several areas of low pressures which could be quite deep bringing the risk of gales and perhaps a named-storm. Generally it will become cooler with temperatures back into the 11-13°C range.

Areas of low pressure look set to dominate next week. How deep these lows are, is yet to be determined.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of October 2022 at 7:15pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

A showery and breezy outlook – Thursday 20th October 2022 – Sunday 23rd October 2022

Hi all,

It’s likely to stay on the mild side as we go through the latter stages of the second month of autumn as winds generally come from a moist source. Tuesday was a beautiful day, cold and fresh to start, locally 3°C and lovely and warm {in the sunshine} during the day. Sitting out for my lunch felt so warm. None of that luxury over the coming weeks as showers seem to dominate.

Thursday: Less windy but generally cloudy with some patchy rain out west and localised downpours to the east, chance of thunder and lightning. Risk of some heavier rain for a time before it turns showery and then drier and brighter later in the day. Mild. Max 15°C

Risk of heavy rain: An area of heavy rain will develop over south-east England on Thursday but some models track it more towards our region.

Friday: Low pressure in charge, anchored to the south-west of the UK. A fresh breeze again with bright spells and after a dry start showers will push north-east, some heavy with thunder. Mild for the time of year. Max 16°C

Weekend: Fewer showers?

Saturday: After a cloudy start any showers should begin to fade and it turns drier with bright or sunny spells. Still breezy and mild. Max 16°C

Sunday: A nagging easterly wind and bright spells for the morning. Uncertainty for the afternoon with the chance of some rain developing to our south-west and moving in later. A bit cooler. Max 14°C

Outlook: The working week looks set to be quite mobile with low pressure parked out in the Atlantic, driving spells of showery rain across the country for most, if not all of the week. Again, some downpours will contain hail and thunder. With a south-westerly airflow temperatures are set to be above average with overnight frosts unlikely.

The final third of October looks wet to very wet across most of the UK, especially out west.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of October 2022 at 7pm.
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

A decent Thursday but rain will return – Thursday 13th October 2022 – Sunday 16th October 2022

Hi all,

Autumnal conditions continue with more rain today, albeit patchy. It’s certainly been a wet start to October, with the monthly total already up to 35mm. There’s little in the way of anything settled and sunny for a prolonged period on the horizon, so you’ll have to make the most of some sunshine on Thursday.

Thursday: A decent day as we avoid weather systems. Sunny spells, light winds and feeling pleasant. Max 15°C

Friday: Strong and blustery westerly winds bringing a few showers/showery rain at times. Hopefully some sunny spells and drier conditions to end the day. Max 13°C

Weekend: Jet Stream back in charge. Unsettled and feeling cool at times.

Saturday: Windy with showers continuing as clouds bubble up during the day. Again, some of these showers could be heavy and thundery and winds will be gusty when they arrive. Max 13°C

Low pressure in charge brings showers aplenty on Saturday

Sunday: Little change. If anything a little less windy and showers perhaps more scattered, especially later. Cool. More general rain overnight and into Monday morning.  Max 12°C

Outlook: Hard to see anything but limited bright spells and showers as low pressure stays out to our west/south-west and in control of our weather. Nights are now looking mild as we keep a south-westerly airflow. Temperatures back up into the mid-teens early on but overall we will tend to see around average maximum temperatures for the time of year.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 12th of October 2022 at 4:10pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Better for the Weekend – Thursday 6th October 2022 – Sunday 9th October 2022

Hi all,

September’s stats are in and finally a month where the total rainfall was not below-average. September is definitely a month of change and it’s feeling a lot more autumnal now and we have more rain to come after a wet start to October.

Thursday: Sunny spells for the morning but cloudier for the afternoon as an area of showers moves in. Drier into the evening. Windy. Max 15°C

Friday: A band of rain will move south-east followed by bright spells and showers. Breezy. Max 14°C

Weekend: Drier with a ridge of high pressure.

Saturday: Overall not a bad day. Dry with bright or sunny spells. Not as windy as recently. Max 15°C

Sunday: Bright start with cloud increasing. Patchy rain arriving during the evening. Max 14°C

Outlook: Drier start to the working week with another ridge of high pressure but limited amounts of sunshine. More unsettled during the week as bands of showery rain return. Temperatures above-average and windy at times.

September 2022 Stats

Max 22.5°C (5th)
Min 2.9°C (28th)
Av. 13.5°C
Wettest 25mm (30th)
Av. Humidity 82%
Av. Barometer 1014.0 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 94.2mm (average)
Rain Registered Days 17
Dry Days 13

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of October at 5:30pm.

Turning wet and windy – Thursday 29th September 2022 – Sunday 2nd October 2022

Hi all,

The weekly blog is back this week and with it news of unsettled weather as the Jet Stream returns across the UK. September is definitely the month of change and another grass-frost this morning, signalling the trend to much cooler weather compared to only a few weeks ago. That said, milder air is on the way but plenty of rain and wind to go with it.

Thursday: A fresh start with sunny spells but cloud will soon increase. Breezy but warmer than recently. Bright spells continue into the afternoon with the chance of a fleeting shower. Chilly night. Max 16°C

Friday: A large area of low pressure will anchor to the northwest of the UK and dominate the weather. Cloud thickening quickly, and any brightness fading as heavy rain sweeps in from the west during the morning. Winds increasing later to gust locally to 40mph. The rain will turn showery into the evening. Max 14°C

A lively low brings heavy rain and gusty winds on Friday, especially into the afternoon and evening.

Weekend: Autumnal but improvements.

Saturday: Windy with frequent showers which could be thundery with hail. Bright spells in between. Feeling fresh and gusty during showers. Max 13°C

Sunday: Showers continuing for most of the morning but these will ease and become more scattered into the afternoon. Still windy. Max 14°C

Outlook: Maximum temperatures staying in the mid-teens. Mixed conditions with bright spells and showers. Nothing significantly cold or warm. Ground-frosts unlikely.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 28th of September 2022 at 5:10pm
Image: www wxcharts.com

Plenty of dry weather but turning cooler with the chance of a ground-frost – Thursday 15th September 2022 – Sunday 18th September 2022

Hi all,

So far in September (up to the 14th) we’ve had 50mm of rain, so already passing the previous 3 months of summer’s individual monthly totals. Autumn is making up for that decent summer but we now enter a dry spell once again, which could last over a week and it will start to feel chilly.

**UV levels are now down to MEDIUM (4) between 12pm-2pm**

After some sunny spells earlier this week, cloudier conditions and cooler air is set to arrive.

Thursday: Fresh start then a dry day with a north-westerly breeze and sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up during the day. Max 16°C Min 7°C

Friday: High pressure out to our west, so plenty of dry weather with variable cloud feeding down from the north-west on a cool and gusty breeze with sunny spells. Cool but pleasant enough in the sunshine and sheltered from the wind. Cold night ahead with the chance of ground-frost in rural spots. Max 15°C Min 4°C

Colder air from the north arrives during Friday.

Weekend: Cloudier second-half.

Saturday: The fresh north-westerly airflow continues and cloud will increase after a bright morning. Dry. More in the way of cloud overnight so not as cold. Max 15°C Min 8°C

Sunday: The high pressure will have drifted a little bit further east, so the wind should not be as strong. Cloudy day expected with some breaks here and there. Feeling cooler with less in the way of brightness. Max 14°C Min 7°C

Outlook: High pressure to hang around for a few more days, so little change. It will then drift away later in the week, allowing for a steady south-westerly breeze to pick up, dragging in cloud with the odd patch of rain but most will stay dry. Temperatures will recover a little but no sign of a late summer-burst on the horizon!

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Note: There will be no blog next week as I’m off to Spain for a golfing holiday. Forecast tweets will continue and maybe the odd Spanish photo or two ;).

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 14th of September at 5:35pm.