7-day heatwave to end early next week with a risk of thunderstorms – Thursday 11th August 2022 – Monday 15th August 2022

Hi all,

Well well well. Another heatwave. August normally disappoints, and OK there is still time left for August to be wet and miserable for the latter part of the month, but the next 5 days are set to be hot and increasingly humid after maximum temperatures reached 25°C on Tuesday and have risen since. Temperatures will make it into the 30s but it will not be as hot as the heatwave of July.

An amber weather warning for extreme heat is in force for Thursday to Sunday – issued by the Met Office

**UV levels are still HIGH (6/7) mostly between 12pm-2pm**

Nights will be warm and a little uncomfortable for sleeping but with relatively low dew points and humidity (until later in the weekend) it could have been a lot worse.

Thursday: The heatwave is in control now, as is high pressure, slam bang across the country bringing a hot day with plenty of sunshine. If you do head to the coast there will be some sea breezes. Max 30°C Min 17°C

Friday: Little change. Hot and sunny with a slight breeze from the east to north-east. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Weekend: More heatwave conditions.

Saturday: Yep, you guessed it another hot and sunny day with a breeze picking up. Max 31°C Min 17°C

Sunday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day; the sign of change. This will be the first signs of a breakdown to the current heatwave as low pressure drifts up from the south. Chance of some thundery showers breaking out later in the day but very isolated. Muggy. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Monday: A cooling theme with scattered thundery showers breaking out. Sunny spells in between. More bearable temperatures but it will be humid as fresher air will slowly arrive on Tuesday. Max 25°C

Outlook: A cooling trend as the weather turns showery with the high slipping away to the east and low pressure coming up from the south or south-west. Locally some hefty downpours and finally some relief from what was a prolonged dry and hot spell of weather. Temperatures returning to around normal values, max 20°C, with the Atlantic driving our weather during the latter part of the week.

The heatwave begins to break: Hit-and-miss thundery showers on Monday

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of August 2022 at 3:05pm
Images: Met Office and http://www.wxcharts.com

Recent much-needed rain to ease, as August shows hints of warming and drying up once more – Thursday 4th August 2022 – Sunday 7th August 2022

Hi all,

Last month was the driest July in England since 1935 according to the data collated by the Met Office. I mentioned numerous times that we were on for well below-average rainfall and even though we ended the month with 11 consecutive days of measurable rainfall, we only saw 38% of the average. August has started with two days of rain and a total of 16mm already. But, despite a few showers, the main trend now is to much drier conditions once more and warmer temperatures into next week.

Some computer models are certainly hinting at a heatwave returning from the second week of August and perhaps lasting 7-10 days, especially in southern (mostly SE) England. I did post a chart on Twitter the other day to show that a model predicts 40°C again. Of course this is an outlier and very unlikely, or in my own words last time, “will never happen”. My thoughts are again very similar, I can’t see it happening but with temperatures into the 30s looking likely once more, never say never.

It’s been a muggy few days but we are slowly slipping into fresher air now and the next few days will see temperatures below-average but I’ll take that as it will be matched with brighter skies and drier weather. Before today we have seen welcome rainfall deliver 46mm on 13 consecutive days.

Dove Stone reservoir earlier last week in need of rain. Image: @Edwards_TE on Twitter.
Here’s how July 2022 compared to previous years

Thursday: Fresher air under a north-westerly airflow. Morning-showers move through quickly leaving a breezy day with sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Max 19°C

Friday: A similar day. No humid air so pleasant in the sunshine as we see a day of bright spells and isolated showers. Most staying dry. Max 18°C

Weekend: Slowly warmer with high pressure building.

Saturday: Perhaps disappointing cloud amounts at times, limiting the amount of sunshine but dry and bright. Max 18°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and warmer. Slight breeze, again from the north-west so not feeling humid. Max 21°C

Outlook: A lot of dry weather with high pressure in control. The position of the high and the wind-flow will be important and determine how quickly temperatures rise. Temperatures expected to be in the early-20s with the chance of them creeping into the mid-20s later in the week. The warmth could introduce more in the way of humid air and this could set off an isolated home-grown shower, otherwise warm and dry.

Not a lot of rainfall expected over the next 10 days – any rain will now be in the form of showers
Another heatwave on the cards for parts of England & Wales? How far north and west the heat gets is still uncertain but it does look favourable that mid-August will be very warm to hot.

July 2022 Stats

Max 36.6°C (19th)
Min 9.7°C (16th)
Av. 17.0°C
Wettest 10mm (24th)
Av. Humidity 75%
Av. Barometer 1021.2 hPa
Max Gust 21.9mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 35mm (38% of av.)
Rain Registered Days 15
Dry Days 16

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 3rd of August 2022 at 5:50pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Record-breaking temperatures during historic heatwave – Thursday 21st July 2022 – Sunday 24th July 2022

Hi all,

As a weather enthusiast, that was an exciting few days to witness the hot plume of air bring us the promised boiling but short-lived (thankfully!) heatwave. Records looked set to be smashed and they were, nationally and locally as the UK hit 40°C for the first time ever. When we will see those kind of temperatures again I wonder? The heatwave had all the perfect ingredients to fuel astonishing temperatures. It’ll happen again, and maybe sooner than you think, but for now, that was the Perfect Sauna and personally it wasn’t pleasant.

New National Records

Unbelievable values

NW England Extremes (official) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

NW England Maximum Temperatures (unofficial sites) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

NW England Highest Minimum Temperatures (unofficial sites) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

New Records at Chadderton HQ

Highest Daytime Maximum: 36.6°C (19/07/2022)
Highest Night-time Minimum: 22.6°C (night of 18/07/2022)
Highest Temperature Recorded between 6pm & 6am: 28.5°C (19/07/2022)

For now we’re back to normal values, but we are still experiencing very low rainfall totals (only 5.6mm for July). So far we have had 6 out of the 7 months of 2022 with lower-than-average rainfall. The environment needs rain, clearly highlighted with the amount of wildfires seen this week.

Thursday: Generally cloudy with a chance of some light patchy rain or drizzle. A lucky few will see bright spells into the afternoon but still we can’t rule out a shower. A warm night. Max 20°C

Friday: Cloudy with a weak weather-front across the region. Today was looking promising a few days ago but not now with showers likely, perhaps thundery, so the odd heavy shower but not the widespread rain we need. Max 18°C

Weekend: Low pressure approaching but temperatures rising.

Saturday: A brief ridge of high pressure leading to a dry morning with plenty of sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up into the afternoon and showers will feed in on a warm south-westerly wind, gusty at times. Humid. Max 22°C

Sunday: Bright spells and showers, risk of a thundery one as low pressure takes control. Warm or very warm in any sunshine and muggy but fresher later/overnight as a cold-front moves through. Max 23°C

Outlook: Fresher and still showery on Monday and breezy. High pressure to build, Tuesday to Thursday, so plenty of dry and quite warm weather with sunny spells. Looks like this will slip away for the weekend allowing showery conditions to return. Temperatures just below average or around average.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of July 2022 at 8:47pm
National Records & NW England Extremes: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Heatwave incoming with possible record-breaking temperatures – Thursday 14th July 2022 – Sunday 17th July 2022

Hi all,

It’s going to get hot again, but this time hotter and the lack of notable rain continues. The hottest day I’ve ever recorded is 33.4°C on the 25th of July 2019. This record is under threat; as is the UK’s highest ever recorded temperature, which sits at 38.7°C (July 2019). Not only will daytime records be on the line, but the night-time highest minimum temperatures will be too. Let’s face it. Some of us have to work and we don’t all have a swimming pool in our back garden to cool off in. Three days of grim conditions await.

Weather warning for extreme heat issued by the Met Office.
Details of extreme heat warning.

The heat looks set to break overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with a risk of some localised thunderstorms. The detail on this is still uncertain at this stage.

UV levels are high at this time of the year so it is easy to burn in the sunshine, especially 11am-3pm, regardless of the maximum temperature.

Thursday: We remain in average temperatures for the time of year with some sunny spells and just the chance of a shower, especially in northern parts. Breezy. Max 19°C

Friday: More in the way of cloud as a weakening weather-front brings some scattered showers. Windy at times. Max 18°C

Weekend: Becoming increasingly hot and humid.

Saturday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day. Likely to stay dry. Lighter winds and a warm night to follow. Max 24°C Min 15°C

Sunday: Hot and humid with some bright spells of sunshine. An afternoon breeze. A sticky night and starting to become uncomfortable for sleeping. Max 27°C Min 18°C

Normally my daily forecast ends here but I’ll throw a couple more days into the mix.

Monday: The impressive waft of hot air from southern origin continues to spread across the region. More in the way of sunshine is expected and with light winds it will be hard to find some relief to escape the heat. Max 31°C Min 19°C

Tuesday: Hot with sunny periods and temperatures getting close to the local record. Can’t rule out 35°C in a few spots in the east. Of course we are still 6 days away from this date and the heat can easily be downgraded or upgraded (more likely the former) so stayed tuned on social media for updates. Max 33°C Min 19°C

Possible maximum temperatures on Tuesday. Widespread uncomfortable heat.

The hot conditions look set to breakdown overnight Tuesday into Wednesday with thunderstorms looking possible, leaving Wednesday a showery day as cooler air arrives, dropping the temperature back down to a maximum of 23°C

Thundery breakdown into Wednesday looking more likely.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of July 2022 at 6:25pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & The Met Office

Very little rain and possible heatwave – Thursday 7th July 2022 – Sunday 10th July 2022

Hi all,

The first week of July has been disappointing with spells of showers and temperatures below-average but not a lot of rain has fallen (5.6mm). Our environment certainly needs rain, after the first 6 months of the year had 5 months with below-average rainfall. February being the exception.

Things are about to heat up, albeit slowly, as high pressure creeps in from the Azores. The high, this week so far, has given us cool and often cloudy conditions on a north-westerly airflow. During the weekend and into the following week it looks likely that the position of the high will be more favourable, allowing warmer air to be dragged in. How hot we get is still not certain. It depends on the high’s location and also how long it hangs around for. With very little rain on the way and drying ground, and increasing sunshine, temperatures will rise day-by-day.

The Met Office’s definition of a heatwave.

The past few days has been an eye-opener when it comes to scanning the temperature forecast, with some crazy temperatures being “predicted” for mid-July. Earlier this week, for southern parts of the UK, 41°C was being output. This is very unlikely to occur but the computer models are still outputting extreme heat for mid-July, with it likely to get into the 30s across the southern half (mostly SE) of the UK and occurring over several days. One thing to certainly note, is the lack of rainfall.

Latest (of one of the computer model’s outputs, but the most unlikely scenario) showing some record-breaking temperatures mid-month.

Remember UV is still high at this time of the year, regardless of the temperature.

Thursday: After a mild night, it will be a mostly cloudy but slightly warmer day, as we start an upward trend on the thermometer. Still that north-westerly airflow though. Brighter skies expected as the afternoon progresses. Max 19°C

Friday: Cloud drifting in from the north-west at times, some brightness here and there. Warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C

Weekend: More in the way of sunny spells after cloudy starts. Warmer.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny spells developing. Pleasantly warm with a mostly gentle breeze. Max 20°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and dry. A little warmer once more. Max 22°C

Outlook: High pressure to dominate. Lots of dry weather and sunny spells. If temperatures do become hot, then we could have a few home-grown thunderstorms to look out for. I would expect to see 24-27°C across the region during the first half of the week with temperatures into the 30s down south. As I mentioned, how high the mercury rises and how long the heatwave lasts is still uncertain and it all depends on the location of the high and its airflow. Some humid and muggy nights to come and evenings watering the garden.

NW England: Very little or no rain expected over the next 10 days.


Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of July 2022 at 6:45pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

Showery but will summery conditions arrive later next week? – Thursday 30th June 2022 – Sunday 3rd July 2022

Hi all,

Let’s be honest, the gardens need rain (and my local golf course) so showers are welcome and we have more on the menu. Temperatures are below average for the time of year, and even with drier conditions into early next week, they will still remain below par. The signs are there though for warmer conditions and rather than two single hot days like we’ve experienced so far this ‘summer’, we could be in for a lengthy spell of summer sunshine and warmth.

Thursday: Sunny spells but scattered showers. These will be quite a downpour if you catch one which could be thundery with hail. Max 19°C

A showery Thursday, especially later with a risk of hail and thunder & lightning

Friday: Little change with bright spells and showers. Again, the odd hefty one. Breezy. Max 18°C

Weekend: Improving….

Saturday: More in the way of sunny spells developing but still some isolated showers around. A little cooler. Max 17°C

Sunday: Hopefully a dry day across the board. A lot of cloud around initially but bright or sunny spells arriving into the afternoon. Max 17°C

Outlook: It looks likely that high pressure will be building in from the Azores. Unfortunately its position this week means will be prone to a northwesterly airflow so dragging in a lot of cloud at times and occasionally breezy. Some sunny spells around with a lot of dry weather but the cloud could be thick enough at times for some early-morning hill-drizzle. Towards the end of the week and into the second week of July it looks at this stage like the high pressure will hang around and slowly, with increasing amounts of sunshine, temperatures will rise back into the 20s with the mid-20s possible around the 9th/10th. Fingers crossed. Next weekend could be BBQ time and who knows, perhaps temperatures back to 30°C down south.

Can the high slip across the UK and lock into position for next weekend

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 29th of June 2022 at 9:20pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

A day of heat then perhaps out with a bang before cooling off with further showers – Thursday 23rd June 2022 – Sunday 26th June 2022

Hi all,

It’s been a lovely working week so far. Just how I like it. Plenty of summer sunshine and temperatures only peaking into the early-20s. We now need rain. We’ve only had 19mm this month and our gardens and my golf course are desperate. Things are about to change and it involves some rain, albeit tricky to pin down the forecast.

Thursday: A hot day with plenty of sunshine during the morning. Cloud will bubble up later in the day with the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two drifting up from the south. This risk continues into the night. A muggy night ahead with temperatures only slipping under 20°C before midnight. Max 27°C

The heat breaks later on Thursday with thunderstorms moving up from the south. How far north these get, keeping their intensity, is the question.

Friday: A cloudier day and cooler after a humid start. Any early thundery showers easing then a day of occasional bright spells with scattered showers developing again into the afternoon, perhaps thundery. Max 21°C

Weekend: Hard to forecast showers.

Saturday: Bright spells for the morning. Showers could pop up for the afternoon but this is tricky to forecast at this stage. With the low pressure out west we could well get away with a reasonable day. Breezy and cooler than recently but pleasantly warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C

Saturday not as bad as first feared?

Sunday: Quite unsettled with frequent showers developing into the afternoon with possible hail and thunder. Windy. Max 18°C

Showery Sunday on the cards.

Outlook: Temperatures around average with sunny spells and frequent hefty showers. Risk of thunderstorms. Hints of it warming up again later in the week but the risk of showers remains.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of June 2022 at 9:40pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Brief Burst of Heat then Cool – Thursday 16th June 2022 – Sunday 19th June 2022

Hi all,

The first heatwave of the summer has arrived in parts of the UK, something I hinted at in my blog on the 18th of May.

It was forecast a few days prior and could well see temperatures of 35°C being recorded before a thundery breakdown, threatening the UK June record.

These plumes of hot air tend to happen a few times during the summer months and more often than not drift east and miss the UK altogether, so hard to predict.

They are also usually short-lived, and for us, it will literally be one day of ‘heatwave’ temperatures, so not officially a heatwave across the region.

Thursday: A generally cloudy but warm and increasingly humid day with some sunny spells especially during the morning. Mostly light southerly winds. A warm night. Max 23°C Min 15°C

Friday: More in the way of sunshine after a cloudy start and it looks likely that we will be in the northwestern area of a hot plume of air from the south, originating from Spain. The heat and humidity could well trigger a sharp shower into the afternoon but very isolated. Cloud increasing overnight. Depending on how far northwest the airmass gets will mean a range of temperatures. Max 25-29°C Min 13°C

Weekend: Up to 12°C cooler!

Saturday: A cold-front will move southeast during the morning pushing away the hot and humid air. Some rain is possible to start the day but patchy. Slowly it will become drier but remain mostly cloudy. Much cooler. Max 16°C Min 10°C

There is some uncertainty to the following 24 hours as the heatwave breaks. Low pressure forming to the south means a band of persistent rain is going to form but where this sits across England and Wales remains to be seen. Locally over an inch of rain could be on the cards. Currently this band is set to sit just to the south of us, but a shift north isn’t out of the question. One to watch.

Sunday: A brisk, cool and gusty north-to-northwesterly wind bringing a few showers and mostly cloudy skies – unless the rain-band moves from its forecasted position. Max 16°C Min 9°C

Outlook: Temperatures slightly below average, 16-18°C, next week with a fresh and steady, westerly wind. Sunny spells and occasional showers can’t be ruled out but with high pressure trying to push in from the southwest it could well be drier, slightly warmer and with sunny spells to end the week.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 15th of June 2022 at 6:45pm.

Ex-Tropical Storm Alex to bring a breezy but reasonable weekend – Thursday 9th June 2022 – Sunday 12th June 2022

Hi all,

I’m back with the weekly blogs after a 2-week rest sunning myself in Rhodes.

It’s been a disappointing start to the meteorological summer with plenty of showers and breezy conditions. Temperatures still haven’t reached 20°C as we pass the first week of June.

Thursday: Early cloud and any rain clearing to sunny spells. Cloudier during the afternoon as some patchy showery rain pushes in towards evening. Breezy and quite warm. Max 18°C

Friday: Windy but warm with plenty of sunny spells. Unlucky to see a shower so mostly dry. Max 20°C

Weekend: Breezy, quite warm to start, and mostly dry but can’t rule out rogue showers.

Saturday: Windy once more with 30mph gusts. Sunny spells developing and it should stay dry. Just the chance of a shower on the hills. Max 18°C

Sunday: Cooler temperatures expected but similar weather with bright or sunny spells and generally dry conditions. More in the way of cloud compared to yesterday. Max 16°C

Outlook: No sign of a summer yet (maybe warming up for the last 10 days of June). Next week looks to be disappointing on the thermometer with temperatures between 15-17°C. Plenty of cloud around with a strong westerly breeze at times. Occasional showers throughout the week too. Take me back to Rhodes!

Below-average temperatures to start next week.

May 2022 Stats

Max 21.9°C (14th)
Min 5.6°C (28th)
Av. 12.1°C
Wettest 14mm (16th)
Av. Humidity 78%
Av. Barometer 1017.9 hPa
Max Gust 28mph
Av. Wind Direction WSW
Rain 51.2mm (below average)
Rain Registered Days 24 (grim)
Dry Days 7

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading. I hope you find these weekly blogs useful and any feedback is always welcome.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 8th June 2022 at 10:15pm
Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Slightly cooler then Sunny Spells and Showers – Thursday 19th May 2022 – Sunday 22nd May 2022

Hi all,

It’s been a warm and humid few days with temperatures sneaking into the 20s and Tuesday was the warmest day of the year so far but a change is on the way. Certainly no sign of a heatwave. My hunch is, mid- to late-June could see some high temperatures, 30°C+ in some parts of the UK. Not a forecast, just a feeling.

The sun is now strong so high UV levels occuring for a few hours either side and throughout lunchtime. Sun-cream needed if you’re out and about. UV levels of 6 to 7. The sun’s strength is equal to mid- to late-July.

Thursday: A lovely day with plenty of warm sunny spells developing after a cloudy start in a few places. High UV. Temperatures a touch down on previous days. Max 19°C

Friday: Turning cloudier with low pressure arriving from the west. Dry for the morning but patchy rain pushing in as the day progresses turning showery towards evening. Cooler. Max 15°C

Weekend: Fresher with a westerly airflow.

Saturday: Temperatures back to normal with a breezy day expected. Sunny spells and isolated showers. Max 16°C

Sunday: Another day of bright or sunny spells with a few showers. Hopefully not as windy. Max 17°C

Outlook: High pressure in the Atlantic with a cool WNW’ly airflow bringing occasional showers. Drier towards the end of the week. Temperatures in the mid-teens or just above. Those early-20°C values nowhere to be seen.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of May 2022 at 9:40pm