Plenty of dry weather but turning cooler with the chance of a ground-frost – Thursday 15th September 2022 – Sunday 18th September 2022

Hi all,

So far in September (up to the 14th) we’ve had 50mm of rain, so already passing the previous 3 months of summer’s individual monthly totals. Autumn is making up for that decent summer but we now enter a dry spell once again, which could last over a week and it will start to feel chilly.

**UV levels are now down to MEDIUM (4) between 12pm-2pm**

After some sunny spells earlier this week, cloudier conditions and cooler air is set to arrive.

Thursday: Fresh start then a dry day with a north-westerly breeze and sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up during the day. Max 16°C Min 7°C

Friday: High pressure out to our west, so plenty of dry weather with variable cloud feeding down from the north-west on a cool and gusty breeze with sunny spells. Cool but pleasant enough in the sunshine and sheltered from the wind. Cold night ahead with the chance of ground-frost in rural spots. Max 15°C Min 4°C

Colder air from the north arrives during Friday.

Weekend: Cloudier second-half.

Saturday: The fresh north-westerly airflow continues and cloud will increase after a bright morning. Dry. More in the way of cloud overnight so not as cold. Max 15°C Min 8°C

Sunday: The high pressure will have drifted a little bit further east, so the wind should not be as strong. Cloudy day expected with some breaks here and there. Feeling cooler with less in the way of brightness. Max 14°C Min 7°C

Outlook: High pressure to hang around for a few more days, so little change. It will then drift away later in the week, allowing for a steady south-westerly breeze to pick up, dragging in cloud with the odd patch of rain but most will stay dry. Temperatures will recover a little but no sign of a late summer-burst on the horizon!

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Note: There will be no blog next week as I’m off to Spain for a golfing holiday. Forecast tweets will continue and maybe the odd Spanish photo or two ;).

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 14th of September at 5:35pm.

Start of Autumn to bring rain, thunderstorms and wind – Thursday 1st September 2022 – Sunday 4th September 2022

Hi all,

I think it’s safe to say that Summer 2022 was decent. Plenty of dry weather with very warm sunny spells and a lot of settled conditions. Most notable was the record-breaking July heatwave (36.6°C) and the well below-average rainfall. We also had much more warmer evenings than usual and even a nice August (normally a bad month). With it being settled we did lack in thunderstorm activity but we could well see some action over the coming week.

Summer 2022 delivered only 39% of the average rainfall.

June 2022 31.6mm (av. 79mm)
July 2022 35mm (av. 92mm)
August 2022 38mm (av. 95mm)

Meteorological autumn starts on Thursday and we’ll squeeze in another decent day but then it’s all about low pressure and an unsettled theme. Exact timings and the finer details of the coming days will change, so always look out for updates on Twitter.

As is the nature of showers, some areas will see more rain than others but the general overall thinking is; 40-50mm of rainfall is likely in the first 10 days of autumn. These totals could be higher in some spots if we see some torrential thundery showers develop.

Up to 2 inches (50mm) of rain expected during the first 10 days of September. That’s about half of what we received throughout the whole 3 months of summer.

Maximum UV levels are now down to medium between 10am-3pm.

Thursday: Low pressure is beginning to develop to the west of the UK but it won’t influence us just yet. So another mostly dry day with warm sunny spells. Outside chance of a shower later, especially over the hills. Winds still quite breezy. Max 22°C

Friday: The low will creep closer and a squeeze in the isobars will mean another breezy or even windy day. Sunny spells and feeling warm but isolated beefy showers are expected later in the day. Max 21°C

Weekend: Turning more unsettled.

Saturday: A showery day, some likely to be thundery as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. There could well be a band of more persistent rain strewn across the region but the location of this at this stage is uncertain. Breezy. Max 20°C

Sunday: Bright spells, especially to start, then heavy and again possibly thundery showers will develop and becoming widespread. These showers could well be more focused to the south and west. Still feeling quite warm in any sunshine but like previous days it will be windy. Max 20°C

Over the weekend and into early next week low pressure to our southwest will be pushing bands of heavy showers north-eastwards across the region

Outlook: Low pressure remaining pretty much in charge with spells of bright spells and showers, some beefy with thunder and lightning. It will tend to become a little cooler as the week goes on with maximum temperatures back into the teens.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 31st of August 2022 at 1:15pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

7-day heatwave to end early next week with a risk of thunderstorms – Thursday 11th August 2022 – Monday 15th August 2022

Hi all,

Well well well. Another heatwave. August normally disappoints, and OK there is still time left for August to be wet and miserable for the latter part of the month, but the next 5 days are set to be hot and increasingly humid after maximum temperatures reached 25°C on Tuesday and have risen since. Temperatures will make it into the 30s but it will not be as hot as the heatwave of July.

An amber weather warning for extreme heat is in force for Thursday to Sunday – issued by the Met Office

**UV levels are still HIGH (6/7) mostly between 12pm-2pm**

Nights will be warm and a little uncomfortable for sleeping but with relatively low dew points and humidity (until later in the weekend) it could have been a lot worse.

Thursday: The heatwave is in control now, as is high pressure, slam bang across the country bringing a hot day with plenty of sunshine. If you do head to the coast there will be some sea breezes. Max 30°C Min 17°C

Friday: Little change. Hot and sunny with a slight breeze from the east to north-east. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Weekend: More heatwave conditions.

Saturday: Yep, you guessed it another hot and sunny day with a breeze picking up. Max 31°C Min 17°C

Sunday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day; the sign of change. This will be the first signs of a breakdown to the current heatwave as low pressure drifts up from the south. Chance of some thundery showers breaking out later in the day but very isolated. Muggy. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Monday: A cooling theme with scattered thundery showers breaking out. Sunny spells in between. More bearable temperatures but it will be humid as fresher air will slowly arrive on Tuesday. Max 25°C

Outlook: A cooling trend as the weather turns showery with the high slipping away to the east and low pressure coming up from the south or south-west. Locally some hefty downpours and finally some relief from what was a prolonged dry and hot spell of weather. Temperatures returning to around normal values, max 20°C, with the Atlantic driving our weather during the latter part of the week.

The heatwave begins to break: Hit-and-miss thundery showers on Monday

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of August 2022 at 3:05pm
Images: Met Office and http://www.wxcharts.com

Very little rain and possible heatwave – Thursday 7th July 2022 – Sunday 10th July 2022

Hi all,

The first week of July has been disappointing with spells of showers and temperatures below-average but not a lot of rain has fallen (5.6mm). Our environment certainly needs rain, after the first 6 months of the year had 5 months with below-average rainfall. February being the exception.

Things are about to heat up, albeit slowly, as high pressure creeps in from the Azores. The high, this week so far, has given us cool and often cloudy conditions on a north-westerly airflow. During the weekend and into the following week it looks likely that the position of the high will be more favourable, allowing warmer air to be dragged in. How hot we get is still not certain. It depends on the high’s location and also how long it hangs around for. With very little rain on the way and drying ground, and increasing sunshine, temperatures will rise day-by-day.

The Met Office’s definition of a heatwave.

The past few days has been an eye-opener when it comes to scanning the temperature forecast, with some crazy temperatures being “predicted” for mid-July. Earlier this week, for southern parts of the UK, 41°C was being output. This is very unlikely to occur but the computer models are still outputting extreme heat for mid-July, with it likely to get into the 30s across the southern half (mostly SE) of the UK and occurring over several days. One thing to certainly note, is the lack of rainfall.

Latest (of one of the computer model’s outputs, but the most unlikely scenario) showing some record-breaking temperatures mid-month.

Remember UV is still high at this time of the year, regardless of the temperature.

Thursday: After a mild night, it will be a mostly cloudy but slightly warmer day, as we start an upward trend on the thermometer. Still that north-westerly airflow though. Brighter skies expected as the afternoon progresses. Max 19°C

Friday: Cloud drifting in from the north-west at times, some brightness here and there. Warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C

Weekend: More in the way of sunny spells after cloudy starts. Warmer.

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny spells developing. Pleasantly warm with a mostly gentle breeze. Max 20°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and dry. A little warmer once more. Max 22°C

Outlook: High pressure to dominate. Lots of dry weather and sunny spells. If temperatures do become hot, then we could have a few home-grown thunderstorms to look out for. I would expect to see 24-27°C across the region during the first half of the week with temperatures into the 30s down south. As I mentioned, how high the mercury rises and how long the heatwave lasts is still uncertain and it all depends on the location of the high and its airflow. Some humid and muggy nights to come and evenings watering the garden.

NW England: Very little or no rain expected over the next 10 days.


Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of July 2022 at 6:45pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.metoffice.gov.uk

A day of heat then perhaps out with a bang before cooling off with further showers – Thursday 23rd June 2022 – Sunday 26th June 2022

Hi all,

It’s been a lovely working week so far. Just how I like it. Plenty of summer sunshine and temperatures only peaking into the early-20s. We now need rain. We’ve only had 19mm this month and our gardens and my golf course are desperate. Things are about to change and it involves some rain, albeit tricky to pin down the forecast.

Thursday: A hot day with plenty of sunshine during the morning. Cloud will bubble up later in the day with the risk of an isolated thunderstorm or two drifting up from the south. This risk continues into the night. A muggy night ahead with temperatures only slipping under 20°C before midnight. Max 27°C

The heat breaks later on Thursday with thunderstorms moving up from the south. How far north these get, keeping their intensity, is the question.

Friday: A cloudier day and cooler after a humid start. Any early thundery showers easing then a day of occasional bright spells with scattered showers developing again into the afternoon, perhaps thundery. Max 21°C

Weekend: Hard to forecast showers.

Saturday: Bright spells for the morning. Showers could pop up for the afternoon but this is tricky to forecast at this stage. With the low pressure out west we could well get away with a reasonable day. Breezy and cooler than recently but pleasantly warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C

Saturday not as bad as first feared?

Sunday: Quite unsettled with frequent showers developing into the afternoon with possible hail and thunder. Windy. Max 18°C

Showery Sunday on the cards.

Outlook: Temperatures around average with sunny spells and frequent hefty showers. Risk of thunderstorms. Hints of it warming up again later in the week but the risk of showers remains.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of June 2022 at 9:40pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Ex-Tropical Storm Alex to bring a breezy but reasonable weekend – Thursday 9th June 2022 – Sunday 12th June 2022

Hi all,

I’m back with the weekly blogs after a 2-week rest sunning myself in Rhodes.

It’s been a disappointing start to the meteorological summer with plenty of showers and breezy conditions. Temperatures still haven’t reached 20°C as we pass the first week of June.

Thursday: Early cloud and any rain clearing to sunny spells. Cloudier during the afternoon as some patchy showery rain pushes in towards evening. Breezy and quite warm. Max 18°C

Friday: Windy but warm with plenty of sunny spells. Unlucky to see a shower so mostly dry. Max 20°C

Weekend: Breezy, quite warm to start, and mostly dry but can’t rule out rogue showers.

Saturday: Windy once more with 30mph gusts. Sunny spells developing and it should stay dry. Just the chance of a shower on the hills. Max 18°C

Sunday: Cooler temperatures expected but similar weather with bright or sunny spells and generally dry conditions. More in the way of cloud compared to yesterday. Max 16°C

Outlook: No sign of a summer yet (maybe warming up for the last 10 days of June). Next week looks to be disappointing on the thermometer with temperatures between 15-17°C. Plenty of cloud around with a strong westerly breeze at times. Occasional showers throughout the week too. Take me back to Rhodes!

Below-average temperatures to start next week.

May 2022 Stats

Max 21.9°C (14th)
Min 5.6°C (28th)
Av. 12.1°C
Wettest 14mm (16th)
Av. Humidity 78%
Av. Barometer 1017.9 hPa
Max Gust 28mph
Av. Wind Direction WSW
Rain 51.2mm (below average)
Rain Registered Days 24 (grim)
Dry Days 7

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading. I hope you find these weekly blogs useful and any feedback is always welcome.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 8th June 2022 at 10:15pm
Image: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com

Slightly cooler then Sunny Spells and Showers – Thursday 19th May 2022 – Sunday 22nd May 2022

Hi all,

It’s been a warm and humid few days with temperatures sneaking into the 20s and Tuesday was the warmest day of the year so far but a change is on the way. Certainly no sign of a heatwave. My hunch is, mid- to late-June could see some high temperatures, 30°C+ in some parts of the UK. Not a forecast, just a feeling.

The sun is now strong so high UV levels occuring for a few hours either side and throughout lunchtime. Sun-cream needed if you’re out and about. UV levels of 6 to 7. The sun’s strength is equal to mid- to late-July.

Thursday: A lovely day with plenty of warm sunny spells developing after a cloudy start in a few places. High UV. Temperatures a touch down on previous days. Max 19°C

Friday: Turning cloudier with low pressure arriving from the west. Dry for the morning but patchy rain pushing in as the day progresses turning showery towards evening. Cooler. Max 15°C

Weekend: Fresher with a westerly airflow.

Saturday: Temperatures back to normal with a breezy day expected. Sunny spells and isolated showers. Max 16°C

Sunday: Another day of bright or sunny spells with a few showers. Hopefully not as windy. Max 17°C

Outlook: High pressure in the Atlantic with a cool WNW’ly airflow bringing occasional showers. Drier towards the end of the week. Temperatures in the mid-teens or just above. Those early-20°C values nowhere to be seen.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of May 2022 at 9:40pm

Becoming warmer with thundery potential – Thursday 12th May 2022 – Sunday 15th May 2022

Hi all,

Temperatures are set to rise and so will the humidity. Those mixed together does not always mean dry conditions. After a few warmer and dry days, next week is looking a bit of a mixed bag.

Thursday: Variable cloud with some sunny spells at times. Windy but pleasant in any sunshine. Rogue shower possible but unlikely so most will stay dry. Max 14°C

Friday: More in the way of warm sunny spells as the day wears on but still windy with 30-35mph gusts taking the edge off the temperature. Max 18°C

Weekend: High pressure builds in but the shower risk increases into Sunday.

Saturday: Sunny spells and overall a bit warmer and noticeable with winds easing. High UV levels. Promises to be a decent day. Max 20°C

Thundery shower potential overnight Saturday into Sunday

Sunday: A warm day with sunny spells. Cloud will bubble around lunchtime/early-afternoon and the breeze will pick up. Chance of an isolated thundery downpour later, especially towards the Peak District. A little humid. Max 19°C

Outlook: The week was looking promising with sunny spells and dry pleasant conditions but that has now changed. It will remain warm, and a little muggy with temperatures into the late-teens but the air will be unstable at times so expect some lively, possibly thundery showers thrown in with the sunny spells. This set-up will certainly see the garden spring into life even more!

Periods of hefty, possibly thundery rain next week as temperatures stay warm with humid unstable air

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 11th of May 2022 at 8:15pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Waiting for Petrichor – Thursday 28th April 2022 – Bank Holiday Monday 2nd May 2022

Hi all,

The wait for significant rain continues and with everywhere drying up rapidly, after a drier-than-average 6 weeks, there will be petrichor in the air once the rain returns.

At this stage, it looks like high pressure will mostly dominate our weather pattern for the foreseeable. High pressure can mean warm and sunny but like recent weeks, we will see cloud amounts variable and with a cooling trend into the new month.

Thursday: A chilly start with some ground-frost and localised mist. Sunny spells for the morning but cloud will tend to increase during the day. Dry with generally light winds. Max 13°C

Friday: Little change although it’s not expected to be as cold of a start. Sunny spells followed by cloudier spells. Max 14°C

High pressure mostly dominating the weather; now, next week and beyond.

Weekend: A little warmer on Saturday.

Saturday: Sunny spells here and there and temperatures lifting a little. Max 16°C

Sunday: Cloudy to start, with perhaps a very localised shower early on. Sunny spells breaking through. Dry with light winds. Max 14°C

Bank Holiday Monday: Mostly cloudy with some bright spells. Temperatures still a little disappointing but plenty of dry conditions. Max 14°C

Outlook: A new area of high pressure will slip down from the north bringing slightly cooler air, even with a risk of overnight ground-frosts. Lots of dry weather but again not guaranteed sunshine as cloud spills in from the north or northeast. No sign of the Atlantic-driven weather pattern returning, so wind and any significant rain still being held at bay.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 27th of April 2022 at 5:55pm.
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Windy but plenty of dry weather – Thursday 21st April 2022 – Sunday 24th April 2022

Hi all,

I hope you enjoyed the Easter weather which remained mostly dry and quite warm with pleasant sunny spells. The sun is gaining strength day-by-day and even when temperatures are below average it can still feel warm in any sunshine. UV levels are now over 4 and at the high-end of medium, so don’t forget your sun-cream when out and about for a couple of hours. Don’t forget, getting sunburnt is nothing to do with the temperature on the thermometer.

We’ve only had 32mm of rain so far this April and with the way it’s looking, there’s not much rainfall to come over the remainder of the month. So it looks like it’s going to be another very dry month, after March’s 21mm. January (45mm) was also dry with the soggy February (187mm) sandwiched in between.

Thursday: A decent sunny day with some cloud bubbling up in southern parts into the afternoon. A keen easterly wind developing and becoming strong but temperatures remaining pleasant enough. Max 16°C

Friday: We have high pressure to our north and northeast in charge of the weather, meaning a lot of dry weather with bright spells developing after a cloudy start (localised shower). Isobars will be closely-packed together meaning it will be a very windy and gusty day. Values of 40mph can’t be ruled out. Max 13°C

High pressure to the N/NE and low pressure to the S. Tightly-packed isobars in between means a gusty, easterly wind coming down off the hills; 35-40mph gusts likely.

Weekend: Gusty conditions.

Saturday: A mostly cloudy day with a few bright spells around especially in the west. Again it will be windy, 35-40mph gusts, making it feel chilly. Chance of an isolated shower early on. Max 12°C

Sunday: Remaining windy but hopefully not as annoying as the last few days and more in the way of sunny spells developing meaning it will feel a little warmer. Dry. Max 14°C

Outlook: At this stage it looks to remain similar to what we currently have although winds will ease by Tuesday. Plenty of dry weather but often cloudy and cooler-than-average. If the Jet Stream kicks back into its Atlantic-driven mode then rain and wind would return but this looks unlikely. Keep watering those gardens!

This graphic shows the total rainfall expected between now and the 1st of May. Unless we see a turnaround in the forecast, we will see very little rainfall during the rest of April.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of April 2022 at 5pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com