What a poor start to December with 77.4mm of rain already fallen here at HQ (higher in the hills) – that’s 127% of the average for the first 15 days of the month. We desperately need dry weather and that is certainly what the outlook brings.
High pressure is now going to take charge of our weather and hold off our normal Atlantic-influenced weather that brings rain and wind-storms. The high pressure is set to become strong and very stubborn to shift and looks set to hang around for a good while, even up to Christmas Day. High pressure can bring plenty of dry weather as we know, but also a lot of sunny skies in summer, when the sun is strong enough to burn through any persistent cloud. Unfortunately we’re at that time of the year when the sun’s strength is at its lowest. Coupled with this, is the position of the expanding high pressure, meaning that we will start to import a lot of cloud from the North Sea on a easterly, occasionally veering north-easterly or south-easterly wind. A ‘cloud-high’ awaits, also known as anticyclonic gloom, or as I call it boring weather!
Thursday: Mostly cloudy with any brightness favouring the east. Mild for the time of year. 11°C
Friday: Cloudy with a misty start in places. Dry but a little cooler than recently with any brightness in the west. Max 8°C
Weekend: Widespread cloud-cover with misty conditions.
Saturday: Remaining cloudy and dull with more mist or fog expected, which could linger in a few spots all day. Max 7°C
Sunday: Temperatures beginning to fall away with yet more overcast skies and misty conditions. Max 6°C
Monday: Starting to feel quite cold now with an easterly airflow. Little change is expected in the conditions, overcast and misty. Max 5°C
Outlook: The stagnant pattern is set to continue. Depending on the location of the high, we could see it become colder with temperatures only a few degrees above freezing. Any breaks in the cloud would allow for daytime brightness and frosts overnight. The general theme is dry but cloud could be thick enough for localised drizzle or snow flurries.
Christmas Day: Currently looking dry, mostly overcast and cold. Any breaks in the cloud will allow for a frosty start. Temperatures close to 4°C as a maximum; whether it is cloudy and cold enough for those snow flurries is still debatable but this would be enough for a White Christmas. No sign of a ‘snow bomb’ just yet 😉 but even colder air is lurking to our E/NE which we could eventually tap into. All to play for if you’re a proper-cold lover.
The days between Christmas and New Year look interesting as the Atlantic tries to comeback into play, bringing areas of low pressure and the normal pattern we are used to. But, with cold air in place, and perhaps the stubborn high still around, a battleground could commence with snow possible on any weather-fronts making inroads, even if it’s temporary, before the rain and wind return. Certainly one to watch, which us weather folk are already talking about.
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Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of December 2021 at 5:25pm