Hi all,

Another winter month completes today and after a cold start it’s ended up being the norm; mild and occasionally wet.

Thursday: A brief ridge of high pressure means a settled day. There will be some bright or sunny spells knocking around but these will tend to be quite hazy. Temperatures will be just a little bit above average but still feeling a little cool. Max 8°C Min 4°C

Friday: A cloudy day with the cloud thick enough to produce some light rain or drizzle and low-cloud on the hills. We’re introducing southwesterly winds which will be very moist and bring with it some very mild air. Max 13°C Min 10°C

Weekend: Mild with the chance of rain.

Saturday: Generally overcast with a weakening band of rain moving south. Mild and windy. Max 12°C Min 8°C

Sunday: Very little change as the band of patchy rain stalls across the region. Not much brightness expected, windy and still mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Little change. We will stay on the mild side of the Jet Stream. Mostly cloudy with a mild southwesterly airflow bringing patchy rain or drizzle. Perhaps a little more unsettled towards the end of the week. Then, a little cooler from the north as we approach the 10th of February. The wait for our next proper cold spell goes on.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 31st January 2024 at 5pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.eu & http://www.netweather.tv

Hi all,

It’s been a turbulent week. 7 days. 2 named-storms. We’ve now had 10 storms this season. Will we see more before winter is out? Probably yes, but currently no sign of one in the immediate future. Also, little sign of wintry conditions with even frosts redundant.

Unfortunately though, there will be more rain and not much in the way of sunshine, bar Friday.

Thursday: Cloud will have spread in from the southwest overnight. So it will be a wet morning with showery rain moving northeast. Bit of a dry spell and then into the afternoon and evening further showers will move in from the southwest. We are introducing a warm sector though, so it will be very mild for the time of year. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Friday: We lose the warm air as cold fronts move through the region. These will bring some showers for the morning which should soon disappear and with a ridge of high pressure building from the south, it should be a much better day with sunny spells but remaining breezy and notably cooler. Cold overnight with a ground frost. Max 8°C Min 2°C

Weekend: Weather systems to the northwest, high pressure to the south of the UK.

Saturday: A weak cold-front will move through the region bringing a spell of rain but this is not expected to last too long as it will weaken. Quite breezy. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Sunday: A mostly cloudy day as expected and again it will be another breezy one. Just a chance that the cloud might be thick enough for a little bit of drizzle at times as another weather front decays over the region. A little milder. Max 11°C Min 6°C

Outlook: It’ll be mild at first with temperatures into double-figures. The week does look quite unsettled though with rain at times and temperatures slowly cooling off slightly as the week goes on. But no significant cold or frosts are expected and at the moment it won’t be windy enough for any more named-storms.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast issued: Wednesday the 24th of January 2024 at 7:23pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Met Éireann.

Hi all,

It’s been a cold week, very cold at night and snow fell across the region during Tuesday. I know it’s winter and nothing new but we don’t get these wintry spells as often as we used to. Certainly feels that way, so whether you love the snow or crisp winter sunshine it’s nice to have a seasonal spell of weather, rather than the relentless rain and wind. Well, unfortunately the latter is set to return with the potential for some very windy days over the next 7 days.

I’ve spent today walking around Heaton Park. Frost or snow on the ground, Arctic air blue skies and little to no wind make for the best days. We definitely don’t get many days like today that’s for sure! Got to make the most of it.

So, after little rainfall over the last 15 days, including 7 dry days, rain is set to return to bring a wet 4 or 5 days next week.

Thursday: Last night could well have been the coldest night of the winter so far with lows of -8°C rurally. This is helped when snow-cover is present, cooling the air further. Despite the cold and frosty start it will be another stunning day with wall-to-wall sunshine. There is a chance of some snow showers through the region into the late-evening. Another cold night to come. Max 2°C Min -5°C

Friday: Frosty start then another dry day with sunny spells becoming hazy later as the wind swings southwesterly and change is on the way. Patchy frost in the evening lifting later as temperatures slowly rise and cloud rolls in. Max 4°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Milder and wetter.

Saturday: Cloudy but hopefully staying dry for the morning. Drizzle then patchy rain will move in during the afternoon. Less cold, temperatures rising steadily during the day, but with it becoming windy it will still feel cold. Max 6°C Min 5°C

Sunday: Mostly cloudy then a deep area of low pressure will bring much milder temperatures, wind and rain. Warning already in place. Max 11°C Min 8°C

Outlook: Temperatures above normal, especially on Tuesday where we could see values scrape into the teens. A wet week with rain or showers at times and turbulent with Tuesday night into Wednesday showing up as being potentially very windy with gusts to 50 mph. Hopefully high pressure will build back in for a drier and sunnier end to the month.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 17th January 2024 at 2:50pm.

Images: http://www.charts.com, http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & the Met Office

Hi all,

I have weather records for the last 11-12 years. 2023 ranked top when it comes to overall average temperatures.

2023 10.7°C
2022 10.5°C
2014 10.2°C

I went and conducted my second tornado site investigation on Sunday to fill in the gaps of missing data. Again, a lot of damage to property, ridge and slate tiles missing. Also trees damaged from twisted, ripped off branches to full uproots. Here’s a selection of the photos from that day.

So as you can see. Next week looks a lot more complex than this week has been. This week being dominated by high pressure means it can be easy to predict plenty of dry weather although predicting cloud amounts and where those breaks appear can be a challenge. Even a large high can be cloudy and have cloud thick enough for drizzle. Predicting that isn’t easy either.

So will it snow next week? The chances are increasing and certainly more precipitation seems to be in the mix and when we have cold air in place at this time of the year, snow cannot be ruled out. So, watch out for updates on X.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a few breaks here and there and also the odd patch of drizzle. Cool. Max 6°C Min 3°C

Friday: Still cloudy but the cloud should not be as thick so drizzle unlikely and more bright spells possible. Lighter winds and a little cooler. Max 5°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Colder air is coming.

Saturday: Another cloudy day and with westerly winds some patchy rain or drizzle could return, especially later in the day. Max 6°C Min 2°C

Sunday: Little change initially with cloudy skies and areas of drizzle. Later in the day the winds will turn more northerly or northwesterly and allow colder, Arctic air to filter south behind cold fronts. Frosty overnight as skies clear. Max 6°C Min -1°C

Outlook: Sunny and cold to start with a few wintry showers on Tuesday. Wednesday could well see sleet and snow push up from the southwest. Where the low pressure tracks will determine how the weather pans out for the remainder of the week and of course which areas will see snow. Look out for updates on X.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of January 2024 at 6pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & the Met Office.

Hi all,

Happy New Year everyone. All the very best for 2024. I hope you had a great Christmas despite the relentless rain. It’s rained for the last 17 days straight, bringing 145.4mm. But, I do have some good news. Much drier weather is on the way and it will also be turning colder. The media has picked up on this and are already talking about snowmageddon {rolls eyes}. For now there is no sign of any significant snow event.

The big talking point since my last blog 2 weeks ago was the tornado that struck parts of Eastern Manchester. Notably, Stalybridge, Copley and Carrbrook. With this location only being around 6 miles away from my house, I did a site investigation for TORRO to plot the damage that I could find and there was a lot. TORRO had already been to the site and initially classed it as a maximum T5 rating which is staggering with estimated wind speeds of 137-160mph. Likely to be the strongest tornado for 17 years (not including the Jersey tornado which was a T6).

The tornado investigation is still on-going but hopefully it won’t be long before it is finalised.

December was a very wet month and mild even after a cold start. In fact the 205mm made it the wettest December I’ve ever recorded in my 12 years of weather records.

There certainly won’t be any tornadoes or wild weather is the near future. High pressure is about to build in across the UK and we will enter a decent 7-10 day spell of mostly, if not completely, dry weather but colder air will accompany this pattern change. Cold enough for snow? Not far off but you need precipitation for that and there won’t be much around. Possible fog would only be the troublesome weather event over the coming days.

Thursday: A cloudy morning is expected with a few showers. Drier with some bright spells into the afternoon. Winds falling lighter later. Cooler. Max 7°C Min 2°C

Friday: Mostly cloudy and winds will eventually turn north-westerly so it’ll be a little cooler (signs of change). Can’t rule out some showers out towards the west with perhaps the odd one sneaking inland. Max 6°C Min 2°C

Weekend: Drier (yeah!), colder with a risk of fog.

Saturday: A cloudy start with a few bright spells appearing. Chilly. Patchy frost overnight. Winds generally light. Max 5°C Min 1°C

Sunday: Cold setting in now, with mist or fog lifting into low-cloud. Looks like any sunshine will be a rare. Dry with a patchy frost returning overnight with some misty conditions. Max 3°C Min 0°C

Outlook: A fresh east or north-easterly wind will pick up which will help break up the cloud leading to sunny spells during the day and frosts at night. Looks dry all week. Perhaps snow showers later in the week drifting in from the North Sea and over the Pennines. But, as for now, cold and dry is the order of the week and no significant snow is expected but finally something more seasonal and relief from the deluge.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 3rd of January 2024 at 6pm.

Images: TORRO T-Scale, my tornado site investigation, Met Office & http://www.wxcharts.com.