After a briefly colder, drier and brighter spell we’re back to awful rain and wind. Luckily for us, we missed out on the really strong winds brought by Storm Debi but parts of the region to our west and north did see 60-70mph.
Wind chart for Storm Debi at Chadderton HQ
The amount of rain is a concern with golf courses closed and gardens saturated. When will it end? Well, just maybe, high pressure will build in, in a week’s time. Please, we need this.
November 2023 so far……
Just 1 dry day this month
Thursday: A chilly day with a northeasterly breeze. Mostly cloudy too with some rain arriving into the late-afternoon/evening. Max 8°C Min 5°C
Friday: Early rain then it should become drier and brighter into the afternoon. Similar temperatures. Max 9°C Min 5°C
Weekend: Unsettled with more rain to come.
Saturday: A cloudy and windy day in prospect as heavy rain moves in from the southwest. This will turn more showery and drizzly into the afternoon. Milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 9°C
Sunday: More rain but showery in nature. Again mild and windy. Max 12°C Min 8°C
Outlook: As we head into next week and the final third of November the weather will become cooler, but not that cold, more seasonal shall we say. There will still be some showers around but there is a hint of high pressure trying its best to build from the south-west to give us a respite from the relentless rain and breezy conditions.
Hopefully not so wet to see out the last week of November
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks, Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of November 2023 at 4:45pm.
I mentioned last week about the possibility of another named-storm this week and Storm Ciarán was named a few days ago. It will bring some destructive winds but luckily for most of the UK, these will be in northwest France and the Channel Islands, where we could see gusts of over 100mph.
Damaging gusts in Jersey
We will dodge the bullet, but the storm will bring us a spell of rain and reasonably gusty winds overnight Wednesday. But overall, it will be a non-event for us.
However, with us being close to the centre of the low we could see some record low pressure values being recorded.
My current record is 961.16mb in February 2014, where incidentally I recorded my strongest ever gust on this day too, of 72mph. Thursday morning is forecast to bring the pressure down to 959mb, so it’s going to be close.
I’ve seen the usual suspects in the media predicting, freezing temperatures and snow. There is currently no sign of this happening, so as usual ignore the clickbait.
So, what is the forecast for the next 4 days?
Thursday: Storm Ciarán will be battering parts way to our south but it’ll be nothing but a breezy one for us after a windy spell during the early hours. It will then be a day of showery rain coming and going, some heavy bursts and some drier spells in between. Feeling cool. Max 10°C Min 7°C
Storm Ciarán to our southeast on Thursday morning – this deep area of low pressure could bring a record low pressure reading for my station.
Friday: A better day but breezy. Cool winds and bright spells and a few showers. Max 10°C Min 5°C
Weekend: Chilly.
Saturday: I’m hopeful for a mostly dry morning albeit quite cloudy, with patchy rain arriving for the afternoon on an easterly breeze. Cool. Max 9°C Min 5°C
Sunday: Bright spells and scattered showers. Max 10°C Min 7°C
Outlook: Remaining showery with south-westerly winds which will be gusty at times. Nothing significantly colder or milder. Hard to find a dry day.
Plenty more rain to come over the next 7 days
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
As always, thank you for stopping by to read my weekly blog.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 1st of November 2023 at 5:50pm.
October is certainly delivering a wet one, with plenty of flooding across the UK. So far we’ve seen 105mm of rain, and we’ve escaped the worst of it. The average for the whole of October is 107mm so we’ll be exceeding that before month-end. As we enter November little change is expected overall. More unsettled weather to come.
Thursday: Rain from overnight will drift away to the northeast during the morning. Some bright spells follow but with showers from the southwest and a steady breeze. A little milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 7°C
Friday: Low pressure anchored to our west feeding up bands of showers at times. Not all doom and gloom with some bright intervals in between. Max 13°C Min 8°C
A wet few days ahead. Image: BBC Weather
Weekend: Low pressure rules again.
Saturday: Showers at times, some heavy and perhaps thundery and slow-moving. But like Friday, there will be slots of drier and perhaps brighter conditions. Max 12°C Min 7°C
Bands of showers Friday and Saturday
Sunday: A little uncertainty for this particular day with a band of persistent and heavy rain likely during the morning. This moves away to the north leaving an afternoon of scattered heavy showers. Max 12°C Min 7°C
Heavy rain due Sunday morning – some uncertainty on its exact location
Outlook: Into next week Monday sees further showers but these should be fewer and further between and with clearer skies later a chilly night follows. Tuesday looks the best day with a brief ridge of high pressure bringing a drier and sunnier day. Wind and rain to return as the week progresses. No sign of any drastic change in the daytime temperatures but they will drop a little next week making it feel a little chilly at times.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks as ever for reading and I hope you find this weekly blog useful.
Thanks, Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday 25th October 2023 at 12:46pm. Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather.
I’ve been out and about today so a quick blog tonight. Storm Babet is battering the UK, but we will miss the worst of the conditions. I am expecting it to very windy, which will be more noticeable coming from the east and southeast. 40-50mph gusts can’t be ruled out during Wednesday and Friday and yes it will be wet at times but the warning for the rain only just brushes the region.
Eastern areas will see the most rainfall from Thursday to Saturday (inc.)
Thursday: Cloudy with some rain to start. Brighter spells for the afternoon but also some showers at times. Mild for the time of year and with lighter winds some of the showers could be slow-moving and thundery. Max 17°C Min 13°C
Friday: A dry start then rain is expected to move in from the east. A little uncertainty on the positioning of the low to our east so details might change. Otherwise a wet afternoon and also a strong and gusty north-easterly wind. Cooler. Max 14°C Min 9°C
Rain will spread in from the east on Friday but still some uncertainty on how far west it gets
Weekend: Turning cooler.
Saturday: Low pressure in charge and some showery rain at times. Not as windy but feeling colder. Max 11°C Min 8°C
Sunday: Hopefully not too bad of a day and the calm after the storm for the UK. Mostly cloudy some brightness and lighter winds. Still cool with some isolated showers later. Max 12°C Min 7°C
Outlook: Temperatures around average and generally unsettled with showers at times.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks, Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th October 2023at 9pm Images: http://www.wxcharts.comand The Met Office
We’ve been enjoying warmer-than-average temperatures recently with a mixture of some warm bright days and then muggy wet ones. Our weather pattern is changing over the next few days and the thermometer is dropping but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t be seeing any sunshine. In fact, the total opposite as high pressure looks to visit our shores for a week or so.
Thursday: After a horrid Wednesday it will be a much-improved day with widespread sunny spells developing. Perhaps even wall-to-wall sunshine in places. But, we are now in a much cooler air-mass and after a chilly start, temperatures will only rise into the teens. Cloud will return into late-evening so not as fresh overnight with heavy rain moving in. Max 13°C Min 9°C
Another bout of heavy rain expected during the first half (especially early hours) of Friday. Otherwise it’s a decent outlook.
Friday: Cloud and rain again return on a milder southwesterly airflow. Similar to Wednesday, this rain will eventually sink away to the southeast and we look to the northwest for our weather as colder air arrives leading to a chilly night with clearing skies. Max 14°C Min 6°C
A colder air-mass arrives from the NW later on Friday.
Weekend: Plenty of sunshine but cold nights.
Saturday: Sunny spells and just the odd afternoon shower feeding in from some Irish Sea convection. Feeling colder after Friday’s milder spell and with clear skies overnight a widespread ground-frost will form. Max 10°C Min 2°C
Sunday: It’s looking like a stunning Autumnal day with a ground-frost to start and again forming overnight. During the day it should remain dry with plenty of sunshine on offer. Despite the temperature it will still feel pleasant in the sunshine with light winds. Max 9°CMin 1°C
Ground-frost is expected on Sunday and Monday mornings.
Outlook: It looks likely that high pressure will control the week’s proceedings bringing some cool nights and dry days with some glorious sunshine on offer. With a slight easterly flow temperatures will be around average for the time of year; maximums of the early-teens and into single figures overnight. Some patchy ground-frost and fog can’t be ruled out. The following week is likely to see a return to more unsettled conditions.
Higher pressure than normal expected for most if not all of next week with an easterly flow developing.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued Wednesday the 11th of October 2023 at 2:45pm.
It’s looking likely that we will see temperatures rise well above normal as we enter the weekend but there is no heatwave expected across the north-west.
Conditions seem set to be warmer and sunnier the further south you are and the hottest weather will be reserved for south-eastern parts of the UK, which is generally the case when we have a waft of heat from France or Spain.
Thursday: Low pressure to our west will swing in some weather-fronts bringing rain at times, especially later with some heavier bursts. Cool and windy. Max 15°C Min 12°C
Friday: Cloudy with rain for the morning. It will tend to become drier into the afternoon with some warmer bright spells. Breezy. Max 19°C Min 13°C
Weekend: Waft of warmth. More cloud on Sunday.
Plume of warmer air: It doesn’t get that far north but just enough north to bring us a pleasant weekend with well above-average temperatures.
Saturday: High pressure edges in from the south and brings some clearer skies and a warmer airmass. A day of pleasant, very warm sunny spells looks on the cards with temperatures rising. Max 23°C Min 12°C
Sunday: Another warm day is expected but it is also favourable to be cloudier with bright spells. Max 21°C Min 13°C
Maximum temperatures expected on Saturday.
Outlook: Remaining pleasant to start the week with temperatures into the late-teens. Cooler from midweek with showers or longer spells of rain. Chilly weekend.
Looking much cooler next weekend with chilly nights.
Thanks for reading and for up-to-date forecasts and warnings, follow @ChadWeather on X.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 4th of October 2023at 4:45pm.
After a lovely dry, hot at times, and sunny start to September it’s well and truly paying us back with some proper autumnal weather. We’ve had almost two inches of rain in the last 2-3 days and there’s more rain to come, but this time in the form of showers during the rest of the working week.
Temperatures have taken a dip after the summery start to September A dry start to September has been replaced by full-on autumn
The media have reported another “Indian Summer” on the way. Well a) we didn’t have an “Indian Summer” earlier this month so we can’t have another and b) there was a possible summer-like spell on the way for the end of the month, but this is now in doubt and c) we can’t have an “Indian Summer” until we get some widespread frosts first.
Some chilly nights over the next couple of days as the milder air is pushed away to the SE
Thursday: A better day than the last two with bright spells and the odd shower on the cards. It’ll be fresher too with a cool start and another chilly night to come. Winds much lighter than earlier in the week but still breezy. Max 15°CMin 7°C
Friday: Winds will swing more westerly then eventually north-westerly making it feel cool. Frequent showers are expected, some thundery, and it will be windy, especially during any downpours. Max 14°C Min 7°C
Weekend: Brief ridge of high pressure on Saturday.
Saturday: A drier day in prospect but with mostly cloudy skies after early brightness. A little milder, notably overnight, and winds swinging back to south-westerly later. Max 15°C Min 12°C
Sunday: Cloudy but dry to start then wind and rain will arrive leading to a miserable afternoon. Milder and windy, with 35mph gusts. Max 18°C Min 14°C
After a drier Saturday, rain is expected again Sunday afternoon
Outlook: Temperatures around average, late-teens, and a showery pattern is expected for most of the week. There were signs of something warmer, drier and settled for the end of the month, as I mentioned on an X post, but the chances of this happening are now fading fast.
It looks like September will end unsettled, despite the earlier indication of a warmer and sunnier spellfor month-end
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thankfully it’s a lot fresher (for now!) than it was during the latter stages of that heatwave. A record dew point was recorded for September and although I enjoyed the dry and sunny weather, going to sleep with temperatures close to 30°C is not pleasant. Tuesday night was cold with a widespread frost in Scotland and a ground-frost in Northern England showing how quickly conditions can change in September.
A frosty start for some on Wednesday morning
I’m still to get around to doing all my weather stats from late-2012 to 2023. I need more time. This data will come one day, I promise.
Thursday: A mostly cloudy start with rain during the morning and then again later at night. Some bright spells in between feeling cool with a slight breeze which should ease later. Max 17°C Min 12°C
Friday: A weather-front will stall early on bringing dank conditions and patchy rain. But the current thinking is this should ease away from the region, moving north, during the morning leading to drier day with some warm bright spells. Milder and turning a little humid later. Max 19°C Min 13°C
Weekend: A little uncertainty on rainfall amounts.
Saturday: Looking humid with a risk of hefty and perhaps thundery showers breaking out as low pressure, to the south-west of the UK, controls our weather. A noticeable keen north-easterly wind. Max 19°C Min 14°C
Humid air set to return later this week
Sunday: Similar with a muggy feel with rain or showers at times, some heavy. The exact positioning of these showers will be easier to forecast nearer the time. Quite warm despite the conditions and again a breezy day. Max 20°C Min 13°C
Outlook: Fresher with more of an Atlantic influence bringing bright spells in between spells of showers or prolonged rain. Temperatures around average.
An unsettled outlookfrom Monday
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
It’s not unusual to have nice weather either side of summer, normally in May and September. So, having high pressure in place leading to wall-to-wall sunshine is no surprise, but the temperatures that we are experiencing, especially in the south-east of the UK are unusually high for the time of year. This is down to the decent weather appearing early in September, so not further into Autumn, and also France and Spain are still hot, into the 30s. The weather set-up is called an Omega block.
Some will call it an Indian Summer, and I used to, but that’s premature. This is reserved for later in Autumn when a warm and dry spell follows the first frosts or the first killing-frost. Scotland has already had frosts this September, but in England and Wales we are nowhere near that stage in our weather.
Interesting stats from Aidan McGivern. Maximum temperatures per month and the year they occurred. September is the longest standing one.
The humidity has increased today so, if you haven’t moaned already, it’ll be too hot for some.
How long does it last? Here’s your 4-day forecast and a peek into the rest of next week.
As always thanks for reading and interacting on X.
Wednesday Night: More in the way of cloud with just the chance of an isolated thunderstorm later in the night. Very warm and humid. Min 19°C
Thursday: Not as much sunshine as recently to start, with mid-level cloud, possibly sparking an isolated thundery shower, however these are more likely to stay out in the Irish Sea. Into the afternoon further hot sunny spells will break through. Max 27°C Min 17°C
Friday: Light winds but with a misty/low-cloud start. It won’t take long for hot sunny spells to burn through once more. Max 29°C Min 17°C
Weekend: Low pressure to the west increasing the instability but the heat will still be around.
Saturday: Looks like the last day of some decent lengthy sunny spells. After a misty start it will be another hot day as further hot air wafts up from the south. Cloud will bubble up but the chance of a shower seems slim. Humid and hot, possibly 30°C in some spots. Max 29°C Min 18°C
Intially it looked like Wednesday or Thursday would be the peak of the heat but now it could well be Saturday with 30°C not to be ruled out.
Sunday: One more day of the heatwave to come with hot sunny spells once more. Cloud could well bubble-up enough to deliver some evening thunderstorms or a sharp shower. Max 28°C Min 15°C
Outlook: Low pressure replaces high pressure. Bright spells, showers at times, some thundery, especially on Monday as the heatwave ends. Cooler too with temperatures eventually back to maximums of only 19°C by midweek. Not a washout though with some sunny periods as well as showers. What will be noticeable though, will be the cooler nights, with lows close to single-figures.
More unsettled next week but not a washout.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
That’s it. Summer turns to Autumn on Friday, meteorologically-speaking of course. We’ve had, at least 5 or 6 weekends in-a-row with rain or showers and low pressure nearby or on top of the UK. This weekend is looking different as finally, a high pressure builds in. No summer heatwave but pleasant enough.
Thursday: A misty and chilly start but a nice one with sunny skies. Cloud will soon thicken from the south-west with patchy rain and drizzle. A little breezy. Max 17°C Min 13°C
Friday: Mostlycloudy with scattered showers, some heavy. These ease later in the day as high pressure begins to build and the Jet Stream splits. A little warmer. Max 19°C Min 13°C
Weekend: Best weekend for a long while but cloud could well be stubborn in a few placesearly on.
Nice to see you: High pressure arrives this weekend
Saturday: Cloudy to start in a few spots after early mist lifts. Sunny spells developing. Feeling warm, UV levels are still medium, in the sunshine but cool if you hang onto cloud for part of the day. Max 21°C Min 10°C
Sunday: Little change. Enjoy the warmth and sunny spells whilst you can. We’ve been starving of a decent weekend for a good while. Max 22°C Min 10°C
Outlook: High pressure stays around as the kids return to school. No surprise! So plenty of dry weather with sunny spells. Temperatures close to 20°C so no early Autumn heatwave planned. Still, some settled weather at last. Later in the week, towards the weekend, showers could develop as the high pressure beginning to decline.
Goodbye: The high looks set to move away to the NE next weekend allowing showers to return.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks as always for popping by to read my weekly blog.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday 30th August 2023 at 3:20pm
Oldham Weather 