Hi all,

Happy New Year everyone. All the very best for 2024. I hope you had a great Christmas despite the relentless rain. It’s rained for the last 17 days straight, bringing 145.4mm. But, I do have some good news. Much drier weather is on the way and it will also be turning colder. The media has picked up on this and are already talking about snowmageddon {rolls eyes}. For now there is no sign of any significant snow event.

The big talking point since my last blog 2 weeks ago was the tornado that struck parts of Eastern Manchester. Notably, Stalybridge, Copley and Carrbrook. With this location only being around 6 miles away from my house, I did a site investigation for TORRO to plot the damage that I could find and there was a lot. TORRO had already been to the site and initially classed it as a maximum T5 rating which is staggering with estimated wind speeds of 137-160mph. Likely to be the strongest tornado for 17 years (not including the Jersey tornado which was a T6).

The tornado investigation is still on-going but hopefully it won’t be long before it is finalised.

December was a very wet month and mild even after a cold start. In fact the 205mm made it the wettest December I’ve ever recorded in my 12 years of weather records.

There certainly won’t be any tornadoes or wild weather is the near future. High pressure is about to build in across the UK and we will enter a decent 7-10 day spell of mostly, if not completely, dry weather but colder air will accompany this pattern change. Cold enough for snow? Not far off but you need precipitation for that and there won’t be much around. Possible fog would only be the troublesome weather event over the coming days.

Thursday: A cloudy morning is expected with a few showers. Drier with some bright spells into the afternoon. Winds falling lighter later. Cooler. Max 7°C Min 2°C

Friday: Mostly cloudy and winds will eventually turn north-westerly so it’ll be a little cooler (signs of change). Can’t rule out some showers out towards the west with perhaps the odd one sneaking inland. Max 6°C Min 2°C

Weekend: Drier (yeah!), colder with a risk of fog.

Saturday: A cloudy start with a few bright spells appearing. Chilly. Patchy frost overnight. Winds generally light. Max 5°C Min 1°C

Sunday: Cold setting in now, with mist or fog lifting into low-cloud. Looks like any sunshine will be a rare. Dry with a patchy frost returning overnight with some misty conditions. Max 3°C Min 0°C

Outlook: A fresh east or north-easterly wind will pick up which will help break up the cloud leading to sunny spells during the day and frosts at night. Looks dry all week. Perhaps snow showers later in the week drifting in from the North Sea and over the Pennines. But, as for now, cold and dry is the order of the week and no significant snow is expected but finally something more seasonal and relief from the deluge.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 3rd of January 2024 at 6pm.

Images: TORRO T-Scale, my tornado site investigation, Met Office & http://www.wxcharts.com.

Hi all,

We are in for a spell of very windy weather. Gales or even severe gales in exposed places. The low pressure to our northeast has been named Storm Pia by the Danish Met Institute. It’s expected to be a windy 48 hours.

Christmas. Will it be white? Despite a few hints last week at something colder for the festive day, this has now backed off, so a mild-ish and breezy Christmas Day looks the most likely outcome.

Thursday: Storm Pia to our northeast and a large area of high pressure out in the Atlantic will mean a real squeeze in the isobars across the region. Cloudy to start with some rain, then turning showery with some bright spells. It will be very windy throughout especially to the east of the hills and also during the first half of the day, with a warning in place. Widely 40-50mph and possibly 60-70mph on the eastern side of the Pennines. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Friday: Rain to start which will hopefully ease away to the east into the afternoon. Still very windy, with 40mph gusts and still mild for the time of year. Max 10°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Mild, windy and some more rain to come.

Saturday: Generally cloudy and windy with patchy rain or drizzle, especially on western-facing hills. Very mild. Max 12°C Min 8°C

Christmas Eve (Sunday): Cloudy with pulses of rain, some drier spells in between, brought in on a steady southwesterly breeze. This airflow will bring some very mild temperatures once again. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Christmas Day (Monday): A better day in prospect. Earlier showers should ease away to a breezy day with some sunny spells. It will be a little cooler but there is no chance of snow this year I’m afraid. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Outlook: Remaining quite unsettled with bouts of rain or showers at times, coming in on the Jet Stream from the west. Temperatures will remain around average or maybe just a little bit above for the time of year before turning a little bit cooler as we head towards the end of 2023. No sign of any significant cold or snow.

Thanks as always, for stopping by to read my weekly blog. I hope you enjoyed it this year and find it useful. I hope you all have a lovely Christmas and I wish you all the best in 2024.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of December 2023 at 5:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Met Office warning.

Hi all,

Christmas is coming and of course, the talk of a White Christmas is on everyone’s lips. No doubt you’ll see the over-the-top nonsense in the mainstream media but how are our chances looking, realistically?

The latter part of this week, will be mild and frosts are not expected. It’s later next week that eyes turn to the north or northwest to the possibility of colder air drifting down across the UK, increasing the chance of some snow. It won’t be severe cold but cold enough for some wintry precipitation. Remember we only need one snowflake to call it a White Christmas officially.

Thursday: Cloudy to start with patchy rain moving west to east. It should become drier and eventually a bit brighter during the morning. Odd shower possible into the afternoon. Less cold. Max 9°C Min 3°C

Friday: Cloudy with a few bright spells here and there. Windy but this wind will be dragging in much milder air as the day goes on. It should be dry at least which is what we need right now. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Weekend: Mostly cloudy with brisk winds.

Saturday: Low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to our south means we will be in between with gusty, moist southwesterly winds. These will bring a lot of cloud, perhaps some hill-drizzle but most areas dry. Mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Cloudy but dry to start. As the day progresses weather fronts to our northwest will slowly slip southeast bringing the increased risk of some light rain or drizzle. Windy and mild once again. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Outlook: We start the week wet and in the mild air still. As the week progresses, and it will be a windy week, the Jet Stream will slip further and further, albeit slowly, south. This will allow cooler and then cold air to slip down from the north or northwest. In the few days leading up to Christmas, wintry showers are likely, so some snow is possible on higher ground. If this lasts until Christmas Day, 2023 could well be officially a White Christmas. Look out for updates on X (@ChadWeather).

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of December 2023 at 7:30pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

November 2023 Stats:

After the cold spell, and some snow early in winter, the weather has slowly returned to what we are accustomed to. Rain. Less cold and a lack of sunshine. But today {Wednesday} was a brief cold and frosty day again. I certainly prefer those crisp blue skies even if it’s Baltic. And of course, I’m partial to a snowflake or ten.

Thursday: Cloudy with pulses of heavy rain moving north-north-east, especially into the afternoon. Brisk winds will become gusty (35mph) with a slightly milder, but still feeling cold airflow after a cold 24 hours prior. Max 7°C Min 6°C

Friday: Low pressure in charge bringing bands of showery rain. The odd bright spell in between but like gold-dust. Breezy at times especially during showers. Milder. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Weekend: Dominated by unsettled conditions.

Saturday: It’s a bit of a rinse and repeat, with showers or longer spells of rain coming in from the west after a dry start in the east. Remaining windy. Should sneak double-digits in a few favourable spots. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Yet more rain is expected. Mild and breezy. Groundhog day. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Outlook: Little change into the first half of next week with the Jet Stream bringing bouts of rain. Signs of something less wet, cooler and not as mobile from midweek with a ridge of high pressure building leading to some drier conditions but mist or fog likely as winds slacken.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of December 2023 at 4:15pm.
Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Winter officially, and meteorologically-speaking, starts on Friday and we enter it with temperatures well-below average and with a moderate frosts on the go, but, snow is what we all want, yeah? Well it’s not everyone’s favourite ingredient and it looks like this lengthy cold spell is going to be wasted when it comes to a decent snowfall.

Thursday: Cold and frosty with some localised mist or fog which might be slow to clear. Otherwise dry with sunny spells. A little breezy. Max 3°C Min -4°C

Friday: Similar pattern continues. Sunny by day, once fog/low-cloud lifts, frosty by night. Dry. Max 3°C Min -4°C

Weekend: Perhaps more in the way of cloud with the chance of some wintry showers.

Saturday: Early freezing fog will clear to bright or sunny spells but some wintry showers, snow above 150M, could be knocking around. Hard to say at this stage but more possible than earlier in the week. A bitter day. Max 2°C Min -3°C

Sunday: Cloudier with some bright spells and again the chance of some scattered wintry showers. Nothing significant. Max 3°C Min -2°C

Outlook: We remain in the cold air, so more frosts to come but currently the models show a change will arrive around the 6th/7th of December, as we switch to a more south-westerly airflow bringing less cold air and eventually some rain and wind. It will have been a cold start to winter and disappointing to not have taken advantage of this and had some decent snowfall. Knowing our winters, the next cold spell will be March 😂.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

As always thanks for reading.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Tuesday 28th November 2023 at 7:38pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather

Hi all,

Still no 600-feet tall wall of snow on the way 😀 but our first cold snap as winter approaches is. Northerly winds will bring frost(s) and clearer blue skies with welcome sunshine but more importantly we’ve lost the relentless rain with high rainfall totals.

Tuesday was only our second day this month without measurable rainfall. So we need a break. There is still some rain around in this forecast but the general theme ahead is drier.

Thursday: A windy (30mph gusts) and cloudy day with some patchy rain. A more organised band of rain will sink south on a cold-front into the evening, pushing away the mild air and temperatures will fall away. Max 12°C Min 4°C

Weekend: Cold but milder air to return?

Friday: Cold Arctic air will slowly filter south, and with the windchill it will feel like a couple of degrees above freezing. The north-westerly wind will be gusty at times. Sunny spells with some cloud, especially out west. Clear skies and lighter winds overnight will lead to a frost forming. Max 6°C Min -2°C

Saturday: A frost to start then a cold but dry day with sunny spells and lighter winds. Frost likely to set in again into the evening and first part of the night but cloud could well lift temperatures later in the night. Max 5°C Min 0°C

Sunday: Depending on cloud-cover it could be another frosty start in places. Cloud is expected to topple down from the north-west making any sunshine hazy then lead to a cloudy afternoon. With the lack of sunshine it will feel cold still, despite less cold air feeding in. Patchy rain possible later into the evening. Max 6°C Min 3°C

Outlook: What the weather brings next week, is not certain. It’s more favourable to turn slightly milder again from the west with some showery rain and with some colder spells from the north-west.

But, some computer models today are signalling for an easterly wind to set in. Less likely to happen but if it were to lock-in, it will become much colder with a sharp wind, and perhaps cold enough for a few snow flurries. For updates on this, look out for my posts on X.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks again for reading.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of November 2023 at 12:32pm.

Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

After a briefly colder, drier and brighter spell we’re back to awful rain and wind. Luckily for us, we missed out on the really strong winds brought by Storm Debi but parts of the region to our west and north did see 60-70mph.

The amount of rain is a concern with golf courses closed and gardens saturated. When will it end? Well, just maybe, high pressure will build in, in a week’s time. Please, we need this.

November 2023 so far……

Thursday: A chilly day with a northeasterly breeze. Mostly cloudy too with some rain arriving into the late-afternoon/evening. Max 8°C Min 5°C

Friday: Early rain then it should become drier and brighter into the afternoon. Similar temperatures. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Weekend: Unsettled with more rain to come.

Saturday: A cloudy and windy day in prospect as heavy rain moves in from the southwest. This will turn more showery and drizzly into the afternoon. Milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 9°C

Sunday: More rain but showery in nature. Again mild and windy. Max 12°C Min 8°C

Outlook: As we head into next week and the final third of November the weather will become cooler, but not that cold, more seasonal shall we say. There will still be some showers around but there is a hint of high pressure trying its best to build from the south-west to give us a respite from the relentless rain and breezy conditions.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of November 2023 at 4:45pm.

Image: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ & my weather station data

Hi all,

I mentioned last week about the possibility of another named-storm this week and Storm Ciarán was named a few days ago. It will bring some destructive winds but luckily for most of the UK, these will be in northwest France and the Channel Islands, where we could see gusts of over 100mph.

We will dodge the bullet, but the storm will bring us a spell of rain and reasonably gusty winds overnight Wednesday. But overall, it will be a non-event for us.

However, with us being close to the centre of the low we could see some record low pressure values being recorded.

My current record is 961.16mb in February 2014, where incidentally I recorded my strongest ever gust on this day too, of 72mph. Thursday morning is forecast to bring the pressure down to 959mb, so it’s going to be close.

I’ve seen the usual suspects in the media predicting, freezing temperatures and snow. There is currently no sign of this happening, so as usual ignore the clickbait.

So, what is the forecast for the next 4 days?

Thursday: Storm Ciarán will be battering parts way to our south but it’ll be nothing but a breezy one for us after a windy spell during the early hours. It will then be a day of showery rain coming and going, some heavy bursts and some drier spells in between. Feeling cool. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Friday: A better day but breezy. Cool winds and bright spells and a few showers. Max 10°C Min 5°C

Weekend: Chilly.

Saturday: I’m hopeful for a mostly dry morning albeit quite cloudy, with patchy rain arriving for the afternoon on an easterly breeze. Cool. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Sunday: Bright spells and scattered showers. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Remaining showery with south-westerly winds which will be gusty at times. Nothing significantly colder or milder. Hard to find a dry day.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

As always, thank you for stopping by to read my weekly blog.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 1st of November 2023 at 5:50pm.

Images: BBC Weather & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

October is certainly delivering a wet one, with plenty of flooding across the UK. So far we’ve seen 105mm of rain, and we’ve escaped the worst of it. The average for the whole of October is 107mm so we’ll be exceeding that before month-end. As we enter November little change is expected overall. More unsettled weather to come.

Thursday: Rain from overnight will drift away to the northeast during the morning. Some bright spells follow but with showers from the southwest and a steady breeze. A little milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Friday: Low pressure anchored to our west feeding up bands of showers at times. Not all doom and gloom with some bright intervals in between. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Low pressure rules again.

Saturday: Showers at times, some heavy and perhaps thundery and slow-moving. But like Friday, there will be slots of drier and perhaps brighter conditions. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Sunday: A little uncertainty for this particular day with a band of persistent and heavy rain likely during the morning. This moves away to the north leaving an afternoon of scattered heavy showers. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Into next week Monday sees further showers but these should be fewer and further between and with clearer skies later a chilly night follows. Tuesday looks the best day with a brief ridge of high pressure bringing a drier and sunnier day. Wind and rain to return as the week progresses. No sign of any drastic change in the daytime temperatures but they will drop a little next week making it feel a little chilly at times.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as ever for reading and I hope you find this weekly blog useful.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 25th October 2023 at 12:46pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather.