More anticyclonic gloom this week but at least this time it won’t last that long. That said, after a slight change over the weekend, we could well be back to overcast skies next week until the Atlantic returns bringing more unsettled weather. As we approach the festivities we could well see some colder air come down from the north.
Thursday: Very similar to recent days. Cloudy skies and perhaps thick enough for some hill-drizzle. Otherwise, mostly light winds, dull and dry. No frost due to cloud-cover. Max 7°C Min 3°C
High pressure has been in charge this week. But it’s been a “cloudy high”.
Friday: A bit of rinse and repeat. Overcast. Perhaps the odd splash of rain and winds turning southwesterly later. Max 8°C Min 3°C
Weekend: Turning milder.
Saturday: Early cloud and patchy rain will sink southeastwards with bright spells following on behind. Cloudy late-evening. Breezy. Max 8°C Min 6°C
Sunday: Milder with plenty of cloud and reasonably windy. Misty on the hills. Max 12°C Min 7°C
Outlook: Monday/Tuesday look mostly dry, windy and cloudy. Temperatures just creeping into double-figures. It is then expected to turn more unsettled later in the week. As we approach Christmas the long-range forecast suggests slightly colder with plenty of wintry showers. Don’t rule out a snowflake falling on the 25th just yet.
Wintry showers on Christmas Day?
Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Winter is here but the temperatures have been a bit up-and-down over the last few days. Currently we’re cold and milder air will again return for Thursday. And yes, you’ve guessed it, colder air returns after that, but this time it’s set to stay. This won’t be proper cold (yet!) but certainly more seasonal with wintry showers, frost and a notable wind-chill.
A powerful Jet Stream will drive our weather over the coming days. Image: Met Office.
Thursday: Not a bad morning with dry spells and some hazy sunshine. Cloud increasing and heavy rain arrives for the afternoon, risk of localised flooding. Also turning windy, potentially 40-50mph later in the night (warning in place). Mild but cooler again overnight. Max 13°C Min 5°C
Friday: We turn colder once again with sunny spells and wintry showers feeding down on a northwesterly wind which will be gusty at times. Max 8°C Min 1°C
Weekend:Some uncertainty but a chance of some strong winds or potentially some hill-snow.
Risk of disruptive winds on Saturday. All depends where the low tracks (the centre is noticeable on the charts).
Saturday: At the time of writing, a low pressure system is expected to come in from the west and deepen across the UK. There is still some uncertainty on the track and it could track across the central part of the country, meaning we will see some strong winds, rain followed by hill-snow. If it is to track further south along the south coast, then it’d be a day similar to Friday with sunny spells and a few scattered wintry showers and obviously not as windy. It could be our next named-storm. Max 5°C Min -1°C
Different models predict different positioning for the deep low on Saturday. A few miles can make a big difference in whether we see very strong winds and even hill-snow.
Sunday: Wherever the low tracks, it will be out of the way by Sunday and we can expect winds to start to turn to a more northerly direction and it will feel cold. Sunny spells and any wintry showers should become confined to any coastal regions. Frost at night. Max 6°C Min 0°C
Outlook: With high pressure out to the west, eventually a northeasterly airflow will develop and it is going to be turning colder with sharp overnight frosts and a few wintry showers but some decent sunny spells. As the week progresses, if the high pressure can start to position itself to the north of the UK, we could start to feed in more of an easterly breeze which again will keep temperatures on the cold side but mostly dry with overnight frosts.
Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday 4th December 2024 at 5:25pm
We enter meteorological winter in this forecast but after some snow last week; is there anymore on the way? No. And to be fair, very little sign of anything particularly cold apart from some chilly nights once we get another very mild spell out of the way.
After last week’s snow, much milder air pushed in and introduced a rapid-thaw, leading to localised flooding. Plus, add 2-3 inches of rain on top of that too. Temperatures continued to climb Saturday night and managed to be steady at 14°C overnight. A couple of degrees higher down south. Exceptional for the time of year.
A widespread frost Wednesday night so deicer at the ready on Thursday morning
Thursday: A cold and frosty start with some patchy fog and ice. A decent but cold day with plenty of late-autumn sunshine on offer. Clear spells continue overnight but the wind will increase and this will help to drag in milder air from the southwest, so no frost overnight. If anything temperatures will rise during the night albeit slowly. Max 6°C Min 5°C
A milder airmass arrives overnight Thursday
Friday: Weather-fronts will be gathering out west but we’ll have another dry day with bright or sunny spells. Notably windy taking the edge off the slightly milder temperatures. Max 10°C Min 8°C
Weekend: Very mild and eventually wet.
Saturday. A windy and mostly cloudy day but it should remain dry for daylight hours. Some bright spells. Max 13°C Min 10°C
Sunday: Those rain-bearing fronts out west are likely to slip in across the region bringing periods of rain which will become showery in nature as a ridge of high pressure builds from the west, decaying the rain-band. Still mild but a cooler night. Max 13°C Min 6°C
Outlook: A brief ridge of high pressure should mean Monday and Tuesday are drier but cooler with plenty of cloud and some brightness. After that it looks like the low pressure systems in the Atlantic will win out bringing spells of wind, rain and milder conditions, with short bursts of cooler air and some bright spells after the lows clear into the North Sea.
Long-term there were some hints at colder-than-average air returning for mid-December. If this trend looks more favourable I’ll post some thoughts on social media.
Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky (search Oldham Weather) for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday 27th November 2024 at 6:18pm.
After a very dry first half of November, things have turned much colder this week and our first taste of winter arrived before the season has even started. We saw some snow on Monday night which was mostly wet-snow but it gave several cms in places and it’s remained on the hills as temperatures have struggled to only a few degrees above freezing.
It’s set to stay much colder-than-average for the majority of this week with a chance of some snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday night, especially so the latter. This could give another dusting in places.
I took a trip to Greenbooth and Naden reservoirs on Wednesday. It was stunning.
The weather is all set to change as we head into the weekend as a deep area of low pressure takes control from the Atlantic bringing strong winds and rain, preceded by some snow. Temperatures will creep up and we will be back into double-digits later on Saturday and into Sunday.
Thursday: Very cold and not as sunny as recently, as we drag in some cloud from the Irish Sea. This cloud could produce some wintry showers during the day, but there is a more active setup into the evening with a trough favoured to bring some sleet and snow showers. Several cms of snow can’t be ruled out even in low-lying areas before the showers turn more sleety later on. There is a bit of uncertainty around this trough, so look out for my posts during Thursday. Max 3°CMin -2°C
Friday: Sunny spells, with the odd wintry shower decaying away. Cloudy later as that change from the Atlantic begins. Max 4°CMin -1°C
A trough will bring some sleet and snow showers Thursday night, mostly out west (rain along the coast) but these might drift more inland so don’t rule out another cover of snow from this. Possible named-storm, Storm Bert, on Saturday. Strong winds, rain preceded by snow and much milder air arriving.
Weekend: Turning milder but wet and windy after early snowfall.
Saturday: Snow is possible for a time in the morning, especially on higher ground. But soon the snow will turn back to rain and it will become very windy {possible named-storm}. The heavy rain will give way to hefty showers. It will be a slow process but much milder into the late-evening. Gusts to 50mph during the day can’t be ruled out so a warning for wind might be issued. Max 11°CMin 9°C
Some snow will precede the rain on Saturday morningMuch milder air will replace the cold Arctic air during Saturday
Sunday: Remaining very windy with sunshine and showers. Very mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C
Outlook: Still windy on Monday with showers. The low pressure then moves away into the North Sea and a brief ridge of high pressure will build and it will turn cooler once again for a couple of days but with some welcome sunny spells. Later in the week, low pressure will return, introducing milder conditions again with southwesterly winds, but also some periods of rain or showers. No snow is expected next week.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings. I am also on Bluesky so you can also follow there.
As always, thanks for reading.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of November 2024 at 5:06pm.
Winter isn’t coming just yet, but the feel of it is. Lots of media “articles” (which I hinted would be the case after I posted that chart last week) about snowfall.
Colder, yes. Much colder-than-average, yes. The coldest weather for 8 months, yes. Risk of wintry showers here, yes. Snow for the hills and mountains of Scotland and parts of Northern England, yes. Widespread snow for most of the UK? Unlikely and impossible to say this far out.
Thursday: High pressure still in charge but it’s now a bit similar to what we had last week. Plenty of cloud, low-cloud at that with hill-fog. Light winds and perhaps some brightness early on. Max 11°C Min 8°C
High pressure still there on Thursday but it will be pushed away this weekend to be replaced by low pressure by Sunday
Friday: Generally cloudy but much windier as weather-fronts start to gather out to the northwest Atlantic bringing a squeeze in the isobars. Can’t rule out some drizzle, especially late-on and on higher ground. Max 11°C Min 7°C
Weekend:A change in airmass is coming.
Saturday: Any bright spells fading as cloud thickens and a weather-front comes down from the northwest. This will bring a narrow band of rain and it will feel cool, exaggerated by the gusty wind. Colder air slips in overnight. Max 10°C Min 3°C
Rain on Saturday. Not much but it will bring a change to colder air in its wake.
Sunday: Some bright spells and feeling colder, especially in the wind. Chance of showers, as a low pressure builds, which could be wintry on higher ground. Any clear spells overnight will lead to a patchy frost. Max 8°C Min 1°C
Colder air from the Arctic is currently being forecast to spread south across the country into the start of next week
Outlook: Even colder air continues to dig in as we enter the new working week. Straight from the Arctic. The weather pattern is then uncertain as we have no defined high or low pressure over us. We can expect cold days, frosty nights and where we do see the odd shower during the day, it will be wintry.
As for more of a chance of some persistent snow, then we would need all the ingredients to come together. In other words, a low slipping in across the region bringing more general heavy rain to southern England but snow on its northern edge. Fine margins, especially since we’re still in November and autumn.
There were hints of a low pressure bringing snow on its northern edge for next Wednesday or Thursday but the latest trend suggests the precipitation will stay further to the south into France.
So for now, ignore any media reports of several inches of snow coming next week. Look out for my posts on X. I can’t see it happening myself. I would expect us to stay in the cold weather for all of the week with sub-zero nights and well below-average temperatures during the day with wintry showers. Then, as we head towards the end of next weekend, a slow change to something less cold.
Snow depth maps for next week. Take with caution as this is 10+ days away and it’s more unlikely than likely. Snow in the forecast is more reliable closer to the event. Sometimes even 24 hours out it can be tricky to pinpoint and we can still be wrong.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of November 2024 at 4:43pm.
Anticyclonic gloom. If you don’t know what that is, you do by now. It’s when we have an area of high pressure in charge but cloud gets trapped within that high pressure and it can’t lift and break. Meaning the days are dull, overcast, dank and usually with a bit of mizzle.
The worst type of weather in my opinion and this is just relentless. When is it going to end? I hear you ask. Not anytime soon unfortunately but the good news is, plenty of dry weather will be knocking around apart from pockets of drizzle and just perhaps some light rain. Very little rain over the next 10 days.
Thursday: Very little change. Dry with plenty of cloud with only a subtle difference of a breeze picking up, which just might break up the cloud in western parts allowing for some brightness into the early afternoon. Mild for the time of year. Max 14°C Min 8°C
Friday: Rinse and repeat. Cloudy after a misty start. Again the breeze might help break up some of the cloud. Don’t bank on it though. Some patchy rain or drizzle later in the day. Max 13°C Min 7°C
Weekend: Nothing exciting.
Saturday: Another dull day looks likely with plenty of thick cloud but mostly dry. Brightness like gold-dust. A little cool. Max 12°C Min 9°C
Sunday: Another weakening weather-front is possible from the west, bringing some patchy rain, if any at all, later in the day, after another cloudy one. Max 13°C Min 9°C
Outlook: Promising, in terms of more dry weather as another high pressure builds across the UK bringing settled conditions. Initially, with more of a westerly airflow, we should clear the overcast conditions so sunny spells seem more likely. As the week goes on, little change, dry and temperatures around normal but cloud amounts could increase again with cloudier days back on the cards.
More high pressure next week
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of November 2024 at 9:05pm.
I visited Spain in September and the area was desperate for rain and this week the rain came; but too much, in such a short space of time in parts of eastern Spain. 343mm fell in 4 hours in one location and over a year’s worth of rain fell in over 8 hours (500mm). With the land so dry and arid, this volume of water immediately ran off surfaces, into the streets turning them into dirty, raging rivers. The loss of life is of no surprise.
Unfortunately, since weather warnings don’t always come true, a lot will have ignored warnings. Whether it’s a yellow, amber or a red warning, you should always read it and take onboard the risk. It could save your life, whatever country you’re in.
Valencia, Spain – the morning after the relentless thunderstorms and in some spots tornadoes were reported.
Luckily our weather is now in a much more settled, benign and boring pattern with high pressure in control. Unfortunately it’s a “cloudy high”. Cloud gets trapped under the high and circles around it, hard to shift now that the sun is lacking in strength at this time of the year. With high pressure in place at least there’s plenty of dry weather to be had, apart from drizzle where cloud is at its thickest.
Thursday: I’m hopeful we see a drier day than Wednesday after it was drizzly in places. A mostly cloudy day with perhaps some bright spots here and there. Dry for most but again I can’t rule out some pockets of drizzle. Max 14°C Min 8°C
Friday: Rinse and repeat for Friday. Little change. Max 14°C Min 8°C
Weekend: Hopefully some sunny spells by Sunday. Some local low-cloud bringing some mist and fog patches, especially on the hills.
Saturday: Cloudy, dry and a little cooler. Slight southeasterly breeze. Max 13°C Min 7°C
Sunday: Cool with sunny spells developing after a cloudy start. Another dry day. Colder night than recently where clear spells persist. Max 12°C Min 5°C
Outlook: High pressure staying in control. Dry weather aplenty. Variable amounts of cloud during the day with some sunny spells. A sunnier week than this week looks likely. Cold nights where skies clear with some localised ground-frost and mist or fog patches. No rain expected all week.
A very dry 10 days ahead. High pressure in charge next week. Any significantly colder air kept at bay.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 30th of October 2024 at 5:20pm.
Really busy day today, so not much input into the weekly blog apart from a quick outlook. Good really as there is a lot of uncertainty going into the weekend so seems a bit pointless spending a lot of time trying to pin down a forecast when it’s difficult to know what’s going to happen.
Thursday: Another dry day on the cards during daylight hours with cloud coming and going. Some bright spells and mild for the time of year but increasingly windy. Odd shower possible from the south after dark. Max 16°C Min 11°C
Friday: The high pressure to our southeast/east slips away which allows low pressure, albeit a bit slack to drift in from the west. Scattered showers developing during the day but a bit hit-and-miss. Not as windy but not as much brightness as Thursday. Max 16°C Min 8°C
Low pressure, although nothing like Storm Ashley arrives as we head into the weekend.
Weekend: Uncertain forecast.
Saturday: It looks like this low pressure will end up decaying (some uncertainty but that looks favourable) leaving a legacy of cloud but mostly dry conditions. Sunny spells developing into the afternoon. Max 15°C Min 7°C.
Sunday: A bit cooler but hopefully another reasonable day with bright or sunny spells and a little cooler. Max 14°C Min 8°C
Outlook: Monday’s looking like a cloudier day as a weakening weather-front/low comes in from the west with any rain on it easing. After that it looks like high pressure builds to the SE of the UK meaning plenty of dry weather, albeit cloudy at times.
Not much rainfall being projected for the next 10 days. Not exclusively dry, but no high rainfall totals on the horizon.
No sign of any SNOW so ignore those media clickbait nonsense stories and if anyone tells you snow is coming, set them straight.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings. Thanks as always for reading.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of October 2024 at 7:45pm
We had some chillier weather this past week but milder air has returned and there’s no sign of anything significantly colder or warm and sunny (Indian Summer). Wednesday was very mild but also very wet in places.
A clear west/east split on Wednesday. Persistent and heavy rain out west has brought 2 inches of rain and flooding.
Thursday: Early cloud and any rain will move away to the north then a decent day. Very mild with some sunny spells, albeit hazy at times. Temperatures above average but slightly fresher air compared to Wednesday.Windy. Max 17°C Min 9°C
Friday: A misty start with low-cloud. Some hazy bright spells for a time before rain, patchy at first, comes in from the west towards evening. Winds increasing, gusting 35mph later. Max 16°C Min 10°C
Weekend: Hopefully not a bad Saturday then the chance of a named-storm.
Saturday: Rain during the early hours soon clearing to a day of sunny spells but a breezy with the chance of a shower. Max 15°C Min 9°C
Sunday: One to watch. Currently looks like a deep area of low pressure will track across the northwestern half of the UK. Expect a very windy day with heavy rain during the morning, followed by blustery showers into the afternoon. Max 15°C Min 9°C
A selection of charts showing Sunday’s deep low pressure, which could be named, bringing rain then blustery showers.
Outlook: Remaining mild. Changeable with some spells of showers or rain. In between bright or sunny spells. Colder towards next weekend.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks, Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 16th of October 2024at 5:40pm
It’s been a wet one today, much wetter in places than was forecast. Some areas seeing nearly an inch of rain falling in the first 12 hours of Wednesday. Good news, drier but colder weather is on the way.
I mentioned “Kirk” last week. The remnants of ex-hurricane Kirk was then named Storm Kirk (they keep their original hurricane name) and it hit northern parts of Portugal and Spain and also France. You can see it clearly on the graphic above.
Thursday: There could well be a cloudy start but this will soon clear to the south as brighter skies filter down from the north with colder air. A decent day in prospect, although fresh, especially in the breeze with plenty of sunny spells into the afternoon. Overnight we can expect a localised ground-frost. Max 11°C Min 2°C
Colder air from the north as we enter Thursday
Friday: Some localised mist and the ground-frost to start, then a day of sunny spells with a bit of cloud bubbling up at times. Low chance of a shower. Cold in the wind which will be gusty. Max 12°C Min 3°C
Weekend:Risk of showersbut plenty of drier weather.
Saturday: Chilly and windy with bright spells and a few showers brewing. Max 12°C Min 2°C
Sunday: I do think there’s a chance of a few showers. Otherwise another cool day. Quite breezy but plenty of dry weather knocking around with sunny spells. Not as cold overnight. Max 12°C Min 6°C
Outlook: High pressure close by at first, which should bring mostly dry conditions with some sunshine. Temperatures will pick up a little as well, making their way back into the mid-teens. From midweek it looks like rain-bearing clouds will return from the west.
After a reasonable start to next week, it looks like the rain will return midweek onwards.
Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.
Thanks,
Jon
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 9th of October 2024 at 5:32pm.
Oldham Weather 