Hi all,

Winter isn’t coming just yet, but the feel of it is. Lots of media “articles” (which I hinted would be the case after I posted that chart last week) about snowfall.

Colder, yes. Much colder-than-average, yes. The coldest weather for 8 months, yes. Risk of wintry showers here, yes. Snow for the hills and mountains of Scotland and parts of Northern England, yes.  Widespread snow for most of the UK? Unlikely and impossible to say this far out.

Thursday: High pressure still in charge but it’s now a bit similar to what we had last week. Plenty of cloud, low-cloud at that with hill-fog. Light winds and perhaps some brightness early on. Max 11°C Min 8°C

Friday: Generally cloudy but much windier as weather-fronts start to gather out to the northwest Atlantic bringing a squeeze in the isobars. Can’t rule out some drizzle, especially late-on and on higher ground. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Weekend: A change in airmass is coming.

Saturday: Any bright spells fading as cloud thickens and a weather-front comes down from the northwest. This will bring a narrow band of rain and it will feel cool, exaggerated by the gusty wind. Colder air slips in overnight. Max 10°C Min 3°C

Sunday: Some bright spells and feeling colder, especially in the wind. Chance of showers, as a low pressure builds, which could be wintry on higher ground. Any clear spells overnight will lead to a patchy frost. Max 8°C Min 1°C

Outlook: Even colder air continues to dig in as we enter the new working week. Straight from the Arctic. The weather pattern is then uncertain as we have no defined high or low pressure over us. We can expect cold days, frosty nights and where we do see the odd shower during the day, it will be wintry.

As for more of a chance of some persistent snow, then we would need all the ingredients to come together. In other words, a low slipping in across the region bringing more general heavy rain to southern England but snow on its northern edge. Fine margins, especially since we’re still in November and autumn.

There were hints of a low pressure bringing snow on its northern edge for next Wednesday or Thursday but the latest trend suggests the precipitation will stay further to the south into France.

So for now, ignore any media reports of several inches of snow coming next week. Look out for my posts on X. I can’t see it happening myself. I would expect us to stay in the cold weather for all of the week with sub-zero nights and well below-average temperatures during the day with wintry showers. Then, as we head towards the end of next weekend, a slow change to something less cold.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of November 2024 at 4:43pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Anticyclonic gloom. If you don’t know what that is, you do by now. It’s when we have an area of high pressure in charge but cloud gets trapped within that high pressure and it can’t lift and break. Meaning the days are dull, overcast, dank and usually with a bit of mizzle.

The worst type of weather in my opinion and this is just relentless. When is it going to end? I hear you ask. Not anytime soon unfortunately but the good news is, plenty of dry weather will be knocking around apart from pockets of drizzle and just perhaps some light rain. Very little rain over the next 10 days.

Thursday: Very little change. Dry with plenty of cloud with only a subtle difference of a breeze picking up, which just might break up the cloud in western parts allowing for some brightness into the early afternoon. Mild for the time of year. Max 14°C Min 8°C

Friday: Rinse and repeat. Cloudy after a misty start. Again the breeze might help break up some of the cloud. Don’t bank on it though. Some patchy rain or drizzle later in the day. Max 13°C Min 7°C

Weekend: Nothing exciting.

Saturday: Another dull day looks likely with plenty of thick cloud but mostly dry. Brightness like gold-dust. A little cool. Max 12°C Min 9°C

Sunday: Another weakening weather-front is possible from the west, bringing some patchy rain, if any at all, later in the day, after another cloudy one. Max 13°C Min 9°C

Outlook: Promising, in terms of more dry weather as another high pressure builds across the UK bringing settled conditions. Initially, with more of a westerly airflow, we should clear the overcast conditions so sunny spells seem more likely. As the week goes on, little change, dry and temperatures around normal but cloud amounts could increase again with cloudier days back on the cards.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of November 2024 at 9:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

I visited Spain in September and the area was desperate for rain and this week the rain came; but too much, in such a short space of time in parts of eastern Spain. 343mm fell in 4 hours in one location and over a year’s worth of rain fell in over 8 hours (500mm). With the land so dry and arid, this volume of water immediately ran off surfaces, into the streets turning them into dirty, raging rivers. The loss of life is of no surprise.

Unfortunately, since weather warnings don’t always come true, a lot will have ignored warnings. Whether it’s a yellow, amber or a red warning, you should always read it and take onboard the risk. It could save your life, whatever country you’re in.

Luckily our weather is now in a much more settled, benign and boring pattern with high pressure in control. Unfortunately it’s a “cloudy high”. Cloud gets trapped under the high and circles around it, hard to shift now that the sun is lacking in strength at this time of the year. With high pressure in place at least there’s plenty of dry weather to be had, apart from drizzle where cloud is at its thickest.

Thursday: I’m hopeful we see a drier day than Wednesday after it was drizzly in places. A mostly cloudy day with perhaps some bright spots here and there. Dry for most but again I can’t rule out some pockets of drizzle. Max 14°C Min 8°C

Friday: Rinse and repeat for Friday. Little change. Max 14°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Hopefully some sunny spells by Sunday. Some local low-cloud bringing some mist and fog patches, especially on the hills.

Saturday: Cloudy, dry and a little cooler. Slight southeasterly breeze. Max 13°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Cool with sunny spells developing after a cloudy start. Another dry day. Colder night than recently where clear spells persist. Max 12°C Min 5°C

Outlook: High pressure staying in control. Dry weather aplenty. Variable amounts of cloud during the day with some sunny spells. A sunnier week than this week looks likely. Cold nights where skies clear with some localised ground-frost and mist or fog patches. No rain expected all week.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 30th of October 2024 at 5:20pm.

Images: BBC Weather, http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Really busy day today, so not much input into the weekly blog apart from a quick outlook. Good really as there is a lot of uncertainty going into the weekend so seems a bit pointless spending a lot of time trying to pin down a forecast when it’s difficult to know what’s going to happen.

Thursday: Another dry day on the cards during daylight hours with cloud coming and going. Some bright spells and mild for the time of year but increasingly windy. Odd shower possible from the south after dark. Max 16°C Min 11°C

Friday: The high pressure to our southeast/east slips away which allows low pressure, albeit a bit slack to drift in from the west. Scattered showers developing during the day but a bit hit-and-miss. Not as windy but not as much brightness as Thursday. Max 16°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Uncertain forecast.

Saturday: It looks like this low pressure will end up decaying (some uncertainty but that looks favourable) leaving a legacy of cloud but mostly dry conditions. Sunny spells developing into the afternoon. Max 15°C Min 7°C.

Sunday: A bit cooler but hopefully another reasonable day with bright or sunny spells and a little cooler. Max 14°C Min 8°C

Outlook: Monday’s looking like a cloudier day as a weakening weather-front/low comes in from the west with any rain on it easing. After that it looks like high pressure builds to the SE of the UK meaning plenty of dry weather, albeit cloudy at times.

No sign of any SNOW so ignore those media clickbait nonsense stories and if anyone tells you snow is coming, set them straight.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings. Thanks as always for reading.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of October 2024 at 7:45pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com and http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

It’s been a wet one today, much wetter in places than was forecast. Some areas seeing nearly an inch of rain falling in the first 12 hours of Wednesday. Good news, drier but colder weather is on the way.

Thursday: There could well be a cloudy start but this will soon clear to the south as brighter skies filter down from the north with colder air. A decent day in prospect, although fresh, especially in the breeze with plenty of sunny spells into the afternoon. Overnight we can expect a localised ground-frost. Max 11°C Min 2°C

Friday: Some localised mist and the ground-frost to start, then a day of sunny spells with a bit of cloud bubbling up at times. Low chance of a shower. Cold in the wind which will be gusty. Max 12°C Min 3°C

Weekend: Risk of showers but plenty of drier weather.

Saturday: Chilly and windy with bright spells and a few showers brewing. Max 12°C Min 2°C

Sunday: I do think there’s a chance of a few showers. Otherwise another cool day. Quite breezy but plenty of dry weather knocking around with sunny spells. Not as cold overnight. Max 12°C Min 6°C

Outlook: High pressure close by at first, which should bring mostly dry conditions with some sunshine. Temperatures will pick up a little as well, making their way back into the mid-teens. From midweek it looks like rain-bearing clouds will return from the west.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 9th of October 2024 at 5:32pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

I’m back after a fantastic 5-day break in Spain golfing. 27-34°C then back to 12°C and localised flooding. Bit of a shock but no surprise. I really do detest the weather in this country sometimes, but at least the coming days are better.

High pressure is now building so we will see some welcome sunshine and drier conditions. Unfortunately, low pressure from the west will slip in later over the weekend, returning the weather to unsettled conditions. You will have heard a bit of talk in the media about ex-hurricane Kirk and it looks like that will come close or even be across the UK by this time next week. For now, it is too early to say.

Thursday: High pressure in charge leading to a decent day with sunny spells. Sunniest in the morning once mist/fog clears and a cold start with a patchy ground-frost. Some fair-weather cloud into the afternoon but remaining dry. Pleasant in the sunshine away from the breeze. Max 16°C Min 6°C

Friday: Another reasonable day with plenty of sunny spells after early mist clears. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine. Unfortunately, it will still be a bit breezy taking the edge off the temperature. Max 16°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Change is waiting out in the Atlantic.

Saturday: Low pressure out west will be tightening the isobars and this means a strong and gusty south or southeasterly wind. After a sunny start cloud will increase from the west for the afternoon and into the evening, showers or patchy rain is likely. Milder overnight. Max 15°C Min 11°C

Sunday: Milder but still windy with showers. Max 18°C Min 11°C.

Outlook: The first couple of days seem to bring sunshine and showers, so a little unsettled. Breezy too. Lots of uncertainty from midweek as some models are hinting at a deep area of low pressure, which would be the remnants of ex-Hurricane Kirk (cue the media OTT articles). One to watch over the coming days to see where this storm tracks. At this stage I can’t confirm if it will indeed bring impacts to the UK.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 2nd of October 2024 at 4:45pm.

Images: Met Office and http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

It’s been fabulous this week once early-morning mist, fog and low-cloud cleared. It felt lovely and warm in the sun and with light winds, for me this is the perfect weather and temperatures. The rest of this week will see the sunshine remain, especially into the afternoon but the wind is set to increase and we have a change on the way, which will be most noticeable on Sunday, or Monday.

Thursday: High pressure still in control but it will be drifting further northeast allowing a northeasterly wind to develop. A cloudy start in some spots, mostly in the east, but this will eventually burn off and it’ll be another lovely day with sunny spells developing widely. Max 20°C Min 11°C

Friday: Cloud will have encroached again overnight, perhaps low enough to give some patches of mist/fog. So, away from the far west, you can expect a cloudy start to Friday. Again, as the day goes on this will break up and warm sunny spells will break through. The northeasterly wind will be strong and gusty at times, but not as windy to the west. Low pressure will be approaching the UK from the south with a little bit of instability. There is the outside chance of a late-in-the day shower, most likely on the Pennines. Max 20°C Min 12°C

Weekend: Eventually unsettled with a risk of downpours?

Saturday: Cloudy/misty start with sunny spells developing. Warm but windy and the risk of a shower increasing as the weather begins to break. Max 20°C Min 13°C

Sunday: Low pressure drifting up from the south. Sunny spells for the morning then showers are likely to develop, some potentially heavy and thundery. Cooler and still that keen northeasterly wind. Max 18°C Min 9°C

Outlook: The Jet Stream looks set to return to the UK bringing spells of showery rain or longer spells of rain and wind. In between some brighter spells. We will eventually lose the brisk northeasterly and southwest to westerly winds will return, driving low pressure systems across the region.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of September 2024 at 7:30pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Autumn has got going this week, with our first airmass from the Arctic, bringing cooler temperatures and cold nights. Also, an area of low pressure introduced an unsettled spell of sunshine and showers. With an unstable atmosphere and a northwesterly airflow, the Irish Sea is good at brewing showers and on Wednesday we certainly had plenty of those, as a trough delivered over half-an-inch of rain in places, as well as some hail and thunder.

Thursday: There will be showers to start the day along the coast feeding into the Cheshire Gap. Inland it will be a sunny start but chilly with perhaps a touch of ground-frost in rural spots. Another windy day with sunny spells, and showers will develop inland but there will be nowhere near as many as Wednesday. There’s even a chance some areas could escape dry throughout the day. Still chilly but less cold air is on the way, but before that we will see a ground-frost overnight, or perhaps an air-frost rurally. Max 13°C Min 0°C

Friday: High pressure is building in from the southwest so this will kill off any remaining showers and it should be a mostly dry day with winds easing and not as cold as recently. After a sunny start cloud will spill in from the southwest. Max 14°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Milder but risk of rain on Sunday.

Saturday: Breezy and dry with sunny spells which are likely to be hazy at times. Warmer as we’ve now introduced a southwesterly airflow. Max 18°C Min 11°C

Sunday: A cloudier day as a weakening weather-front sinks south bringing some patchy rain. Breezy and feeling a little cooler with the lack of sunshine. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Outlook: It’s looking increasingly likely that high pressure will build across the UK bringing sunnier weather, drier conditions and temperatures rising back up close to 20°C, so above-average. It looks set to drift north later in the week meaning we introduce quite a gusty easterly wind taking the edge off the temperature.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 11th of September 2024 at 4:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & The Met Office

Hi all,

Summer has come to a close. I need to pull my finger out and get my data all sorted so I can compare seasonal data with ease. But, as you may have seen, summer was cooler-than-average, the coolest since 2015 and also drier-than-average. And to top it off, duller-than-average too. All 3 months in fact, had below-average rainfall after a wet Spring.

Thursday: Interesting set-up with a cut-off low pressure sitting to the south of the UK. This means we will see a northeasterly airflow. The low will deliver a wet day to our south. For us, some sunny spells, windy at times and any sun/brightness turning hazy as cloud increases from the south. Feeling cool in the wind but turning humid later. Showers possible overnight. Max 19°C Min 15°C

Friday: Another windy day, with gusts of 30-40mph not out of the question. Despite the wind it will be sunnier with some decent spells of sunshine expected and temperatures will rise rapidly, as will the muggy-feel to the weather, especially at night. Max 24°C Min 16°C

Weekend: Not all plain sailing.

Saturday: Overnight showers may have pushed up from the south but once these clear it should be a day of sunny spells and again windy conditions but not as gusty as Friday. Temperatures down a little. Max 22°C Min 15°C

Sunday: Looks a similar day to Saturday but with the showers coming during the daytime. Odd one could be heavy and thundery. Breezy. Max 21°C Min 14°C

Outlook: Littered with uncertainty but it’s siding towards a more unsettled week, after early ridges of high pressure, and possibly cooler with a northerly airflow slipping in for a day or two later in the week. Overall not too much rainfall expected.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued Wednesday the 4th of September at 5:14pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Summer is coming to a close and the “highlight” for me is the lack of sunshine and hardly any prolonged very warm or hot spells. It is also notable that after a very wet Spring, all 3 Summer months will have had below-average rainfall totals.

I mentioned last week that Summer would end well and that still looks the case.

Thursday: A fresher start to the day and it’s expected to be a day of sunshine and a few scattered showers. A steady enough breeze from the west. Not as humid or as warm as recent days. Max 18°C Min 8°C

Friday: High pressure is now beginning to build so we can expect a dry day with bright or sunny spells and temperatures up a notch after a misty start. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine. Max 21°C Min 9°C

Weekend: Decent enough.

The sun is only as strong as mid-April now, so UV levels are only medium.

Saturday: Misty start but high pressure still in charge but drifting away into the North Sea slightly. This means we’ll introduce a bit of a north-easterly breeze. That said, it’ll still be another pleasant day, dry with plenty of sunny spells. Feeling warm in the sunshine and warmer the further west you are, sheltered from the breeze. Max 21°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Hello autumn. Yes meteorologically-speaking, it’s arrived. Early mist then more in the way of cloud possible on Sunday, but still a reasonable day, warm mostly light winds and sunny spells. Max 22°C Min 11°C

Outlook: A weakening band of showery rain is likely on Monday, but the following few days do look reasonably settled with sunny spells and just the odd shower. What happens towards the end of the week is uncertain, but it’s likely that low pressure returns from the west.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading.
Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 28th of August 2024 at 12:35pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com