Hi all,

Well summer finally arrived but not exactly wall-to-wall sunshine, but instead sunny spells, dry, very warm and humid conditions.

It took a while but finally we had a day in June that was warmer than the warmest day in May.

After a cool June for most of the month, the averages for May and June are now close. June’s average was running well below May until this recent summery spell.

What has also been noticeable, if you’ve done your garden recently; is that it is drying out somewhat.

Currently June has only had 50% of its expected monthly rainfall. Some areas down in the southeast of England are sitting at only 10%. Currently it’s a 50/50 split with 13 days dry and 13 days with measurable rainfall.

But, cooler and fresher air is on the way as an area of low pressure, bringing gales to NW Scotland, pushes away the heat and humidity through Thursday.

Thursday: The cooler air will arrive Thursday morning as a weakening cold-front moves through. The day will start with a narrow band of patchy rain followed by sunshine. Sunny spells continue but some showers are possible, especially out west later in the day, most likely in the evening. Much cooler and fresher and turning windier later. Max 20°C Min 12°C

Friday: After a few early showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain, the showers will ease and the afternoon should be an improving picture with sunny spells developing. Windy though and this will make it feel like the mid-teens as temperatures return to below the average. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Temperatures below par.

Saturday: It’s expected to be cloudy with some splashes of rain here and there. Not as windy as recently so not feeling as cool. Max 18°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Sunday looks a fine day and hopefully a dry day. Sunny spells for the morning with cloud bubbling up during the day. Breezier again and temperatures disappointing. Max 17°C Min 12°C

Outlook: Poor for the time of year. Mostly cloudy at times with some showers and bright spells in between. Since the sun is strong, it will still feel pleasant where sunny spells occur. It will be occasionally windy and with the wind coming from a westerly or even northwesterly direction at times, temperatures will be below average with us struggling to reach 20°C.  This pattern looks set to continue for the first week of July. Cue the, “that’s summer over” quotes.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of June 2024 at 3:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

I hinted a few weeks ago that the latter part of June should finally bring some warmer weather and this now looks like being the case. I’m no Mystic Meg but June just had to improve at some point as it was so bad.

The warmer feel to our weather starts today, Wednesday, with highs of 20°C and sunny spells. Very pleasant indeed, and personally I prefer that to any sweaty, humid heatwave.

Of course the warmer temperatures will lift the June average, as currently it was at values we would expect to see in October but it won’t be the “warmest” on record like May was (see last week’s post for more information).

So why is it getting warmer? It’s all down to a shift in the Jet Stream which will move north meaning we’ll be on the southern flank where the warmer air is.

Thursday: A cloudy start with some early mist then warm sunny spells will break through. Dry and feeling pleasant. Max 22°C Min 13°C

Friday: Warm with sunny spells but cloud will build later from the west turning the sun hazy. Chance of some patchy rain into the late-evening. Warm. Max 21°C Min 12°C

Weekend: A bit of a blip on Saturday with Sunday the better day.

Saturday: Early cloudy conditions with some patchy rain and showers. Showers will ease and the weather-front will weaken and some sunny spells are expected later. Max 20°C Min 11°C

Sunday: A better day in prospect with warm sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up at times but remaining dry. Feeling warmer. Max 21°C Min 12°C

Outlook: High pressure will mostly control the weather and with a southerly breeze it will gradually become warmer with sunny spells. Temperatures likely to reach 22-24°C, perhaps the probability of 25-26°C as the week progresses but from midweek it is uncertain how the weather will pan out. Some models go hot for England and Wales with a heatwave developing, others show a breakdown from the west to a cooler and showery theme. That said, at least the weather for now is turning more to what we would like to expect in June and certainly more summery.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of June 2024 at 4:48pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

After a record-breaking May across the UK. Yes, it was the warmest (although I prefer the word mildest) on record and this was also the case for my dataset of weather records dating back to August 2012. I know it is only a small dataset but when you look at the average temperature and especially the nighttime temperatures you can see why.

There seems to be most of the general public who do not believe the statistics for May 2024. But what you’ve got to think about is why the statistics are doubted by many.

May 2024 was a cloudier month than normal, so during the daytime it didn’t feel warm on most days due to the lack of sunshine. Any kind of sunshine, regardless of temperature, in May feels warm to very warm due to the time of year. Cloudy nights meant very mild nights and it was these mild nights that lifted the average temperature value for May 2024 into record-breaking territory. And as you’re aware, most don’t notice the nighttime temperatures as they’re sleeping. Very warm sunny days can mean clear nights and nighttime temperatures into single-figures in May, even with localised ground-frosts but May 2024 was cloudier and much milder overnight. Again this is clear in the data.

The coldest night was only +7.4°C and we only had 9 nights below 10°C.

The average temperature overall for May 2024 here was 14.1°C which beats previous Mays easily.

We also had 6 days where the temperature was 21-24°C. Not many remember that. 12 days were 19°C or above, which is above the maximum average.

We also had more dry days than wet days and apart from a very wet day (33.6mm) the other 30 days’ total rainfall was below average. Hard to believe.

So what made May 2024 so disappointing and forgetful: The lack of sunshine which is noticeable by many of us more than anything else.

June is poor so far and will likely be our first below-average temperature month for a long time. I do think some heat is coming; whether this be late on in June or early-July, remains to be seen.

Thursday: A chilly start. Any early brightness fades as cloud thickens from the west and the breeze picks up. Rain will arrive around mid-afternoon. We’ll now have a southwesterly airflow so temperatures up a little but with that rise comes moisture. Max 16°C Min 12°C

Friday: Sunny spells and showers. The showers most frequent into the afternoon, and some heavy with hail and thunder. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Low pressure firmly in charge.

Saturday: A day of bright spells to start with hefty thundery showers brewing. Catch one and it will be a downpour. Lighter winds and in any sunshine it will feel pleasant and warm. UV levels are high as always at this time of the year. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Sunday: The low pressure drifts a little further north so it’s a bit breezy, especially later. Otherwise, rinse and repeat. Bright spells and beefy showers. Risk of hail and thunder. Max 17°C Min 10°C

Outlook: Low pressure(s) close by. The warm bright spells and showery theme will continue. Temperatures around average, 17-19°C. If you see “heatwave on the way” in the media. Ignore.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 12th of June 2024 at 5:55pm.

Image: http://www.wxcharts.com