Hi all,

October is certainly delivering a wet one, with plenty of flooding across the UK. So far we’ve seen 105mm of rain, and we’ve escaped the worst of it. The average for the whole of October is 107mm so we’ll be exceeding that before month-end. As we enter November little change is expected overall. More unsettled weather to come.

Thursday: Rain from overnight will drift away to the northeast during the morning. Some bright spells follow but with showers from the southwest and a steady breeze. A little milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Friday: Low pressure anchored to our west feeding up bands of showers at times. Not all doom and gloom with some bright intervals in between. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Low pressure rules again.

Saturday: Showers at times, some heavy and perhaps thundery and slow-moving. But like Friday, there will be slots of drier and perhaps brighter conditions. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Sunday: A little uncertainty for this particular day with a band of persistent and heavy rain likely during the morning. This moves away to the north leaving an afternoon of scattered heavy showers. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Into next week Monday sees further showers but these should be fewer and further between and with clearer skies later a chilly night follows. Tuesday looks the best day with a brief ridge of high pressure bringing a drier and sunnier day. Wind and rain to return as the week progresses. No sign of any drastic change in the daytime temperatures but they will drop a little next week making it feel a little chilly at times.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as ever for reading and I hope you find this weekly blog useful.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 25th October 2023 at 12:46pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather.

Hi all,

We’ve been enjoying warmer-than-average temperatures recently with a mixture of some warm bright days and then muggy wet ones. Our weather pattern is changing over the next few days and the thermometer is dropping but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t be seeing any sunshine. In fact, the total opposite as high pressure looks to visit our shores for a week or so.

Thursday: After a horrid Wednesday it will be a much-improved day with widespread sunny spells developing. Perhaps even wall-to-wall sunshine in places. But, we are now in a much cooler air-mass and after a chilly start, temperatures will only rise into the teens. Cloud will return into late-evening so not as fresh overnight with heavy rain moving in. Max 13°C Min 9°C

Friday: Cloud and rain again return on a milder southwesterly airflow. Similar to Wednesday, this rain will eventually sink away to the southeast and we look to the northwest for our weather as colder air arrives leading to a chilly night with clearing skies. Max 14°C Min 6°C

Weekend: Plenty of sunshine but cold nights.

Saturday: Sunny spells and just the odd afternoon shower feeding in from some Irish Sea convection. Feeling colder after Friday’s milder spell and with clear skies overnight a widespread ground-frost will form. Max 10°C Min 2°C

Sunday: It’s looking like a stunning Autumnal day with a ground-frost to start and again forming overnight. During the day it should remain dry with plenty of sunshine on offer. Despite the temperature it will still feel pleasant in the sunshine with light winds. Max 9°C Min 1°C

Outlook: It looks likely that high pressure will control the week’s proceedings bringing some cool nights and dry days with some glorious sunshine on offer. With a slight easterly flow temperatures will be around average for the time of year; maximums of the early-teens and into single figures overnight. Some patchy ground-frost and fog can’t be ruled out. The following week is likely to see a return to more unsettled conditions.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued Wednesday the 11th of October 2023 at 2:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

It’s looking likely that we will see temperatures rise well above normal as we enter the weekend but there is no heatwave expected across the north-west.

Conditions seem set to be warmer and sunnier the further south you are and the hottest weather will be reserved for south-eastern parts of the UK, which is generally the case when we have a waft of heat from France or Spain.

Thursday: Low pressure to our west will swing in some weather-fronts bringing rain at times, especially later with some heavier bursts. Cool and windy. Max 15°C Min 12°C

Friday: Cloudy with rain for the morning. It will tend to become drier into the afternoon with some warmer bright spells. Breezy. Max 19°C Min 13°C

Weekend: Waft of warmth. More cloud on Sunday.

Saturday: High pressure edges in from the south and brings some clearer skies and a warmer airmass. A day of pleasant, very warm sunny spells looks on the cards with temperatures rising. Max 23°C Min 12°C

Sunday: Another warm day is expected but it is also favourable to be cloudier with bright spells. Max 21°C Min 13°C

Outlook: Remaining pleasant to start the week with temperatures into the late-teens. Cooler from midweek with showers or longer spells of rain. Chilly weekend.

Thanks for reading and for up-to-date forecasts and warnings, follow @ChadWeather on X.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 4th of October 2023 at 4:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Thankfully it’s a lot fresher (for now!) than it was during the latter stages of that heatwave. A record dew point was recorded for September and although I enjoyed the dry and sunny weather, going to sleep with temperatures close to 30°C is not pleasant. Tuesday night was cold with a widespread frost in Scotland and a ground-frost in Northern England showing how quickly conditions can change in September.

I’m still to get around to doing all my weather stats from late-2012 to 2023. I need more time. This data will come one day, I promise.

Thursday: A mostly cloudy start with rain during the morning and then again later at night. Some bright spells in between feeling cool with a slight breeze which should ease later. Max 17°C Min 12°C

Friday: A weather-front will stall early on bringing dank conditions and patchy rain. But the current thinking is this should ease away from the region, moving north, during the morning leading to drier day with some warm bright spells. Milder and turning a little humid later. Max 19°C Min 13°C

Weekend: A little uncertainty on rainfall amounts.

Saturday: Looking humid with a risk of hefty and perhaps thundery showers breaking out as low pressure, to the south-west of the UK, controls our weather. A noticeable keen north-easterly wind. Max 19°C Min 14°C

Sunday: Similar with a muggy feel with rain or showers at times, some heavy. The exact positioning of these showers will be easier to forecast nearer the time. Quite warm despite the conditions and again a breezy day. Max 20°C Min 13°C

Outlook: Fresher with more of an Atlantic influence bringing bright spells in between spells of showers or prolonged rain. Temperatures around average.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & data provided by Highland Weather on X.

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 13th of September 2023 at 6:16pm.

Hi all,

It’s not unusual to have nice weather either side of summer, normally in May and September. So, having high pressure in place leading to wall-to-wall sunshine is no surprise, but the temperatures that we are experiencing, especially in the south-east of the UK are unusually high for the time of year. This is down to the decent weather appearing early in September, so not further into Autumn, and also France and Spain are still hot, into the 30s. The weather set-up is called an Omega block.

More here: https://news.sky.com/story/uk-heatwave-what-is-an-omega-block-and-how-is-it-causing-our-extreme-weather-12956027

Some will call it an Indian Summer, and I used to, but that’s premature. This is reserved for later in Autumn when a warm and dry spell follows the first frosts or the first killing-frost. Scotland has already had frosts this September, but in England and Wales we are nowhere near that stage in our weather.

The humidity has increased today so, if you haven’t moaned already, it’ll be too hot for some.

How long does it last? Here’s your 4-day forecast and a peek into the rest of next week.

As always thanks for reading and interacting on X.

Wednesday Night: More in the way of cloud with just the chance of an isolated thunderstorm later in the night. Very warm and humid. Min 19°C

Thursday: Not as much sunshine as recently to start, with mid-level cloud, possibly sparking an isolated thundery shower, however these are more likely to stay out in the Irish Sea. Into the afternoon further hot sunny spells will break through. Max 27°C Min 17°C

Friday: Light winds but with a misty/low-cloud start. It won’t take long for hot sunny spells to burn through once more. Max 29°C Min 17°C

Weekend: Low pressure to the west increasing the instability but the heat will still be around.

Saturday: Looks like the last day of some decent lengthy sunny spells. After a misty start it will be another hot day as further hot air wafts up from the south. Cloud will bubble up but the chance of a shower seems slim. Humid and hot, possibly 30°C in some spots. Max 29°C Min 18°C

Sunday: One more day of the heatwave to come with hot sunny spells once more.  Cloud could well bubble-up enough to deliver some evening thunderstorms or a sharp shower. Max 28°C Min 15°C

Outlook: Low pressure replaces high pressure. Bright spells, showers at times, some thundery, especially on Monday as the heatwave ends. Cooler too with temperatures eventually back to maximums of only 19°C by midweek. Not a washout though with some sunny periods as well as showers. What will be noticeable though, will be the cooler nights, with lows close to single-figures.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of September 2023 at 5:42pm
Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & http://www.wxcharts.com & X

Hi all,

That’s it. Summer turns to Autumn on Friday, meteorologically-speaking of course. We’ve had, at least 5 or 6 weekends in-a-row with rain or showers and low pressure nearby or on top of the UK. This weekend is looking different as finally, a high pressure builds in. No summer heatwave but pleasant enough.

Thursday: A misty and chilly start but a nice one with sunny skies. Cloud will soon thicken from the south-west with patchy rain and drizzle. A little breezy. Max 17°C Min 13°C

Friday: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers, some heavy. These ease later in the day as high pressure begins to build and the Jet Stream splits. A little warmer. Max 19°C Min 13°C

Weekend: Best weekend for a long while but cloud could well be stubborn in a few places early on.

Saturday: Cloudy to start in a few spots after early mist lifts. Sunny spells developing. Feeling warm, UV levels are still medium, in the sunshine but cool if you hang onto cloud for part of the day. Max 21°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Little change. Enjoy the warmth and sunny spells whilst you can. We’ve been starving of a decent weekend for a good while. Max 22°C Min 10°C

Outlook: High pressure stays around as the kids return to school. No surprise! So plenty of dry weather with sunny spells. Temperatures close to 20°C so no early Autumn heatwave planned. Still, some settled weather at last. Later in the week, towards the weekend, showers could develop as the high pressure beginning to decline.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as always for popping by to read my weekly blog.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 30th August 2023 at 3:20pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

After two weeks off, COVID and a holiday to sunny Bognor Regis, the weekly blog is back. I wish I was the bearer of good news, a late summery burst of warmth and sunshine, but unfortunately not. The difference this week between the NW of England and the SE of England was again plain to see. Temperatures into the mid-20s down there, and although we did see temperatures into the early-20s we continued to see rainfall.

Thursday: Low pressure to the north of the UK. Overall it will be cooler with sunny spells and a few showers once a band of cloud and some rain moves south-east. A little breezy. That said, it will still be pleasant in any sunshine later. Max 18°C Min 11°C

Friday: Sunny spells and showers. A breeze, notably from the north-west or north introducing fresher air. Temperatures not much different but dew point values will drop making it feel cooler at night. Max 17°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Plenty of brightness but showers still present.

Saturday: The low pressure will drift away to the east, ever so slowly, and with high pressure to the west this will kill off some of the showers, especially later, but they will still be around with the odd heavy one. Sunny spells in between. Max 17°C Min 9°C

Sunday: More in the way of cloud with a few showers. Temperatures down a little. Max 16°C Min 10°C

Bank Holiday Monday: A dry morning and hopefully we hold onto this into the early-afternoon before cloud thickens and light rain/drizzle arrives on a milder airflow. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Outlook: Little change. No late summer heat, mostly cloudy with showers. Next weekend could see more in the way of sunshine with a brief area/ridge of high pressure but don’t hold your breath. Indian Summer anyone?

Follow @ChadWeather on X (formerly Twitter) for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of August 2023 at 12:58pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Good riddance to July. What a truly dreadful month. The stats say it all.

Preston managed 302% of the July average rainfall whereas for us it was 232%. It was more like Autumn with numerous areas of low pressure powered by the Jet Stream and this is clearly shown with the average pressure reading.

Thursday: The low that brought Wednesday’s rain will have moved away to the east allowing a cooler N-to-NW’ly airflow develop across the region. This will drag down some scattered showers, some heavy. Windy at times with sunny spells in between. Max 18°C Min 11°C

Friday: A similar day but with slightly less windy conditions and showers eventually fading and being confined to eastern parts. Max 17°C Min 10°C

Weekend: Details a little uncertain.

Saturday: It was looking like another wet weekend day with low pressure arriving, but, the latest suggests that this will now slip south of us. Therefore the current thinking is bright spells and thundery showers and particularly cool and windy. With details uncertain for Saturday, look out for updates on Twitter. Max 14°C Min 9°C

Sunday: A strong and gusty westerly wind transporting in another scattering of showers, perhaps heavy with hail and thunder. Max 16°C Min 11°C

Outlook: The first few days sees little change but then signs are there for high pressure to build in the Atlantic then move across the UK. This will bring drier and sunnier conditions, something we haven’t seen for a long time. The issue is, this looks like it will only last 3-4 days at best before we return to an unsettled theme. That said, sometimes a high pressure can really build and lock itself upon us for a while, so fingers crossed we see something we can call summer again. Depending on how long the high can last and what direction the wind flows from, will determine how warm we’ll get. Watch this space.

July 2023 Stats

Max 26.1°C (7th)
Min 8.8°C (25th)
Av. 15.6°C
Wettest 27.2mm (23rd)
Av. Barometer 1009.5 hPa
Max Gust 30mph
Av. Wind Direction WSW
Rain 205.2mm (232% of average)
Rain Registered Days 27
Dry Days 4

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 2nd of August 2023 at 10am.
Images: Met Office & http://www.wxcharts.com