Hi all,

Summer has come to a close. I need to pull my finger out and get my data all sorted so I can compare seasonal data with ease. But, as you may have seen, summer was cooler-than-average, the coolest since 2015 and also drier-than-average. And to top it off, duller-than-average too. All 3 months in fact, had below-average rainfall after a wet Spring.

Thursday: Interesting set-up with a cut-off low pressure sitting to the south of the UK. This means we will see a northeasterly airflow. The low will deliver a wet day to our south. For us, some sunny spells, windy at times and any sun/brightness turning hazy as cloud increases from the south. Feeling cool in the wind but turning humid later. Showers possible overnight. Max 19°C Min 15°C

Friday: Another windy day, with gusts of 30-40mph not out of the question. Despite the wind it will be sunnier with some decent spells of sunshine expected and temperatures will rise rapidly, as will the muggy-feel to the weather, especially at night. Max 24°C Min 16°C

Weekend: Not all plain sailing.

Saturday: Overnight showers may have pushed up from the south but once these clear it should be a day of sunny spells and again windy conditions but not as gusty as Friday. Temperatures down a little. Max 22°C Min 15°C

Sunday: Looks a similar day to Saturday but with the showers coming during the daytime. Odd one could be heavy and thundery. Breezy. Max 21°C Min 14°C

Outlook: Littered with uncertainty but it’s siding towards a more unsettled week, after early ridges of high pressure, and possibly cooler with a northerly airflow slipping in for a day or two later in the week. Overall not too much rainfall expected.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued Wednesday the 4th of September at 5:14pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Summer is coming to a close and the “highlight” for me is the lack of sunshine and hardly any prolonged very warm or hot spells. It is also notable that after a very wet Spring, all 3 Summer months will have had below-average rainfall totals.

I mentioned last week that Summer would end well and that still looks the case.

Thursday: A fresher start to the day and it’s expected to be a day of sunshine and a few scattered showers. A steady enough breeze from the west. Not as humid or as warm as recent days. Max 18°C Min 8°C

Friday: High pressure is now beginning to build so we can expect a dry day with bright or sunny spells and temperatures up a notch after a misty start. Feeling pleasant in the sunshine. Max 21°C Min 9°C

Weekend: Decent enough.

The sun is only as strong as mid-April now, so UV levels are only medium.

Saturday: Misty start but high pressure still in charge but drifting away into the North Sea slightly. This means we’ll introduce a bit of a north-easterly breeze. That said, it’ll still be another pleasant day, dry with plenty of sunny spells. Feeling warm in the sunshine and warmer the further west you are, sheltered from the breeze. Max 21°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Hello autumn. Yes meteorologically-speaking, it’s arrived. Early mist then more in the way of cloud possible on Sunday, but still a reasonable day, warm mostly light winds and sunny spells. Max 22°C Min 11°C

Outlook: A weakening band of showery rain is likely on Monday, but the following few days do look reasonably settled with sunny spells and just the odd shower. What happens towards the end of the week is uncertain, but it’s likely that low pressure returns from the west.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading.
Jon

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 28th of August 2024 at 12:35pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Well summer finally arrived but not exactly wall-to-wall sunshine, but instead sunny spells, dry, very warm and humid conditions.

It took a while but finally we had a day in June that was warmer than the warmest day in May.

After a cool June for most of the month, the averages for May and June are now close. June’s average was running well below May until this recent summery spell.

What has also been noticeable, if you’ve done your garden recently; is that it is drying out somewhat.

Currently June has only had 50% of its expected monthly rainfall. Some areas down in the southeast of England are sitting at only 10%. Currently it’s a 50/50 split with 13 days dry and 13 days with measurable rainfall.

But, cooler and fresher air is on the way as an area of low pressure, bringing gales to NW Scotland, pushes away the heat and humidity through Thursday.

Thursday: The cooler air will arrive Thursday morning as a weakening cold-front moves through. The day will start with a narrow band of patchy rain followed by sunshine. Sunny spells continue but some showers are possible, especially out west later in the day, most likely in the evening. Much cooler and fresher and turning windier later. Max 20°C Min 12°C

Friday: After a few early showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain, the showers will ease and the afternoon should be an improving picture with sunny spells developing. Windy though and this will make it feel like the mid-teens as temperatures return to below the average. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Temperatures below par.

Saturday: It’s expected to be cloudy with some splashes of rain here and there. Not as windy as recently so not feeling as cool. Max 18°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Sunday looks a fine day and hopefully a dry day. Sunny spells for the morning with cloud bubbling up during the day. Breezier again and temperatures disappointing. Max 17°C Min 12°C

Outlook: Poor for the time of year. Mostly cloudy at times with some showers and bright spells in between. Since the sun is strong, it will still feel pleasant where sunny spells occur. It will be occasionally windy and with the wind coming from a westerly or even northwesterly direction at times, temperatures will be below average with us struggling to reach 20°C.  This pattern looks set to continue for the first week of July. Cue the, “that’s summer over” quotes.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of June 2024 at 3:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

I hinted a few weeks ago that the latter part of June should finally bring some warmer weather and this now looks like being the case. I’m no Mystic Meg but June just had to improve at some point as it was so bad.

The warmer feel to our weather starts today, Wednesday, with highs of 20°C and sunny spells. Very pleasant indeed, and personally I prefer that to any sweaty, humid heatwave.

Of course the warmer temperatures will lift the June average, as currently it was at values we would expect to see in October but it won’t be the “warmest” on record like May was (see last week’s post for more information).

So why is it getting warmer? It’s all down to a shift in the Jet Stream which will move north meaning we’ll be on the southern flank where the warmer air is.

Thursday: A cloudy start with some early mist then warm sunny spells will break through. Dry and feeling pleasant. Max 22°C Min 13°C

Friday: Warm with sunny spells but cloud will build later from the west turning the sun hazy. Chance of some patchy rain into the late-evening. Warm. Max 21°C Min 12°C

Weekend: A bit of a blip on Saturday with Sunday the better day.

Saturday: Early cloudy conditions with some patchy rain and showers. Showers will ease and the weather-front will weaken and some sunny spells are expected later. Max 20°C Min 11°C

Sunday: A better day in prospect with warm sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up at times but remaining dry. Feeling warmer. Max 21°C Min 12°C

Outlook: High pressure will mostly control the weather and with a southerly breeze it will gradually become warmer with sunny spells. Temperatures likely to reach 22-24°C, perhaps the probability of 25-26°C as the week progresses but from midweek it is uncertain how the weather will pan out. Some models go hot for England and Wales with a heatwave developing, others show a breakdown from the west to a cooler and showery theme. That said, at least the weather for now is turning more to what we would like to expect in June and certainly more summery.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of June 2024 at 4:48pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

After a record-breaking May across the UK. Yes, it was the warmest (although I prefer the word mildest) on record and this was also the case for my dataset of weather records dating back to August 2012. I know it is only a small dataset but when you look at the average temperature and especially the nighttime temperatures you can see why.

There seems to be most of the general public who do not believe the statistics for May 2024. But what you’ve got to think about is why the statistics are doubted by many.

May 2024 was a cloudier month than normal, so during the daytime it didn’t feel warm on most days due to the lack of sunshine. Any kind of sunshine, regardless of temperature, in May feels warm to very warm due to the time of year. Cloudy nights meant very mild nights and it was these mild nights that lifted the average temperature value for May 2024 into record-breaking territory. And as you’re aware, most don’t notice the nighttime temperatures as they’re sleeping. Very warm sunny days can mean clear nights and nighttime temperatures into single-figures in May, even with localised ground-frosts but May 2024 was cloudier and much milder overnight. Again this is clear in the data.

The coldest night was only +7.4°C and we only had 9 nights below 10°C.

The average temperature overall for May 2024 here was 14.1°C which beats previous Mays easily.

We also had 6 days where the temperature was 21-24°C. Not many remember that. 12 days were 19°C or above, which is above the maximum average.

We also had more dry days than wet days and apart from a very wet day (33.6mm) the other 30 days’ total rainfall was below average. Hard to believe.

So what made May 2024 so disappointing and forgetful: The lack of sunshine which is noticeable by many of us more than anything else.

June is poor so far and will likely be our first below-average temperature month for a long time. I do think some heat is coming; whether this be late on in June or early-July, remains to be seen.

Thursday: A chilly start. Any early brightness fades as cloud thickens from the west and the breeze picks up. Rain will arrive around mid-afternoon. We’ll now have a southwesterly airflow so temperatures up a little but with that rise comes moisture. Max 16°C Min 12°C

Friday: Sunny spells and showers. The showers most frequent into the afternoon, and some heavy with hail and thunder. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Low pressure firmly in charge.

Saturday: A day of bright spells to start with hefty thundery showers brewing. Catch one and it will be a downpour. Lighter winds and in any sunshine it will feel pleasant and warm. UV levels are high as always at this time of the year. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Sunday: The low pressure drifts a little further north so it’s a bit breezy, especially later. Otherwise, rinse and repeat. Bright spells and beefy showers. Risk of hail and thunder. Max 17°C Min 10°C

Outlook: Low pressure(s) close by. The warm bright spells and showery theme will continue. Temperatures around average, 17-19°C. If you see “heatwave on the way” in the media. Ignore.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 12th of June 2024 at 5:55pm.

Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Apologies for no weekly blog over the last two weeks. A busy schedule meant time was limited. I’m back this week with a full 4-day forecast and an outlook after a very wet and miserable Wednesday.

Thursday: The low pressure responsible for Wednesday’s deluge will still be anchored across the UK and this will continue to bring spells of rain throughout the day. It will become patchier into the evening and it will be breezier than recently. Max 13°C Min 11°C

Friday: The low beings to fill but it will still mean a disappointing day with mostly cloudy skies and some showers at times. Muggy with lighter winds. Brighter spells later on are possible. Max 15°C Min 10°C

Weekend: Much warmer but still showery.

Saturday: Sunny spells and with only the outside chance of a shower as cloud bubbles during the day, it’s a much-improved day. Feeling much warmer too. Max 20°C Min 13°C

Sunday: A weakening weather-front will mean a cloudier Sunday looks likely with bright spells and some heavy showers, which could be thundery. Max 18°C Min 10°C

Bank Holiday Monday: A ridge of high pressure will mean a day of warm sunny spells developing after early showers decay. Max 18°C Min 11°C

Outlook: A ridge of high pressure means it doesn’t stay around for long, so back to a theme of sunshine and showers with perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, especially after Tuesday. It will be a west or southwesterly air-flow so remaining on the average side in terms of temperature and a little humid at times.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of May 2024 at 5:37pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Netweather Radar.