Hi all,

Personally, I’m not a fan once temperatures start to get into the mid-20s or beyond. Obviously I’m talking about this country where heat is usually accompanied by high dew points leading to humid conditions and uncomfortable nights trying to get to sleep.

I’ll be keeping an eye on the dew points and the humidity over the course of the heatwave, as it’s likely that the first couple of days will not be as muggy as you would expect. As the temperature rises day-on-day and the nights become warmer and the heatwave starts to reach its latter stage, it is likely that the humidity and dew point values will rise which some people will find unpleasant.

If you love a heatwave and hot conditions with plenty of sunny spells, then this forecast is for you.

Thursday: A heatwave is not declared until we have three consecutive days of 25°C or above. So technically the heatwave will not be confirmed until Saturday, but because we are confident that temperatures will exceed the threshold then today is the first day of the heatwave which is expected to last 5 days. Mostly light winds. Very warm sunny spells and not too humid for now. Max 26°C Min 15°C

Friday: Hot and sunny with light and variable winds. Max 30°C Min 17°C

Weekend: A scorcher.

Saturday: Another hot or very hot and sunny day. Hopefully a little bit of a breeze into the afternoon. A very low chance of an isolated thunderstorm but it seems highly unlikely. A warm night for sleeping. Starting to become more humid. Max 32°C Min 18°C

Sunday: Rinse and repeat for Sunday. If any difference perhaps the breeze will have picked up a little bit which will bring a bit of relief from a very hot day. Again, a very low risk of a shower on the hills. Fans on full blast for bedtime. Max 31°C Min 19°C

Outlook: The heat could eventually trigger some localised thundery downpours on Monday but this could well be delayed until Tuesday such is the uncertainty at this stage. But what looks certain is that the heatwave threshold will end with cooler temperatures arriving on Tuesday but still humid. After that the week looks warm, early-20s, muggy and with bright spells and heavy thundery showers.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as always for reading.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 9th of July 2025 at 5:30pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

As mentioned last week we didn’t experience a heatwave across the majority of Northwest England this week. We actually only saw one day exceed 25°C as the majority of the heat plume was reserved for more southern and eastern parts of England.

That said, it’s been uncomfortably muggy and hard to get to sleep at night, even with fans on in the bedroom. Thankfully a cold-front has now brought fresher air from the west and the evenings, for now, will be a bit more pleasant when turning in for the night.

Make the most of the next couple of days as we’ll see plenty of sunshine on offer and more pleasant temperatures but unfortunately the weekend is looking unsettled with low pressure in charge. Also with a lot more moisture in the air, the dew point will increase and again it will become quite humid.

Thursday: Windy at times but plenty of sunny spells. Can’t rule out an isolated shower. Temperatures around average so feeling pleasant in the sunshine, especially without the humidity. Max 20°C Min 11°C Max Gusts 25mph

Friday: A similar day. Plenty of sunny spells, mainly dry, just the outside chance of a shower but the risk is low and another breezy one. Cloud will begin to thicken towards evening and patchy rain will arrive and a more humid airmass will set in overnight. Max 21°C Min 13°C Max Gusts 20mph

Weekend: Rain at times but some drier spells.

Saturday: The morning looks cloudy with patchy rain. In the afternoon we might see a few bright spells develop, as the wind increases breaking the cloud up, but we can still expect some showers. Max 19°C Min 12°C Max Gusts 25mph

Sunday: The second half of the weekend looks like a day of bright spells and showers after a mostly cloudy start. Again, a breezy one and temperatures slightly below average. Max 18°C Min 11°C Max Gusts 20mph

Outlook: Another showery day on Monday and then the following few days seem a bit of a mixed bag. There’ll be high pressure to the southwest of the UK and low pressure or bands of showers to the northwest. We will be sandwiched in between, so we can expect bright spells and equally some showers. Temperatures below average until later in the week when they should return to the early twenties with some welcome sunshine returning in time for the weekend. No sign of another heatwave across our region just yet.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 2nd of July 2025 at 2:40pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com.

Hi all,

Where is time going? Almost a third of summer done.

So far June has an average temperature of 15.6°C which makes it the joint-second warmest June I’ve recorded with records back to June 2013. June 2023 was the warmest at 17.3°C. This is mostly down to some warm and muggy nights, and we have some more of these to come this week.

Thursday: A band of rain to start which will turn showery towards lunchtime. Generally turning brighter and drier into the afternoon but also fresher and windier. Max 20°C Min 13°C Max Gusts 30mph

Friday: There will be a new weather-front close by to our northwest on Friday. Parts of the region close to this front could well see some light rain with most places cloudy. Some bright spells in the southeast are possible. Starting to turn quite humid and windy again. Warm night. Max 22°C Min 17°C Max Gusts 25mph

Weekend: The thermometer rises into Sunday.

Saturday: Some early rain should move on quite quickly and then a breezy day with sunny spells and mostly dry conditions. Becoming very warm. Max 24°C Min 16°C Max Gusts 25mph

Sunday: Some stubborn cloud to clear and very warm to hot with sunny spells developing. Not as windy as recently. Max 25°C Min 16°C

Outlook: Monday will be another hot one with plenty of sunny spells. Fresher air will arrive on Tuesday with a few showers blown in on a northwesterly wind. After that becomes a little bit more uncertain, but a ridge of high pressure nudging up from the Azores is currently the favourable outcome. So we do see some hot weather as we enter next week but it will be short-lived and shouldn’t reach the heatwave threshold.

Thanks for stopping by to read. Follow @ChadWeather on X or Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 25th of June 2025 at 5pm

Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Spring was a belter, very dry and with some really warm days, but summer hasn’t got off to the best of starts. That said, we are about to experience our first heatwave of the season.

There is a certain threshold for it to be classed as a heatwave and no matter how long it lasts, there is no such thing as a “mini-heatwave”.

So far this year the warmest temperature I’ve recorded, came in April (30th) with a high of 25.9°C. That will certainly get beaten over the next few days. There’s an outside chance that somewhere could see 30°C. As we head into the weekend there will be a bit of a welcome breeze picking up and eventually cooler air and also the risk of a thunderstorm or two.

Hot days and warm nights ahead but how long will the heatwave last?

Thursday: A southerly airflow and plenty of hazy sunshine, making it feel toasty from mid-morning onwards as temperatures rocket. With light winds the heat will build and it will be hot into the afternoon. Overnight, expect a warm one but a bit breezier. Max 29°C Min 17°C

Friday: Another hot day but at least a wind will have picked up, helping those who hate the heat. Plenty of sunny spells and there’s a chance that some cloud could bubble up and set off an isolated shower towards evening but the risk is low. An uncomfortable night for sleeping. Max 28°C Min 18°C

💡 Heatwave safety tip: Keep pets cool and drink plenty of fluids with your BBQ 😉.

Weekend: Change into Sunday. Thunderstorms possible.

Saturday: Starting to feel more humid and after a morning of sunny spells, cloud is expected to bubble up and there will be a few scattered thundery downpours into the afternoon/evening and also overnight. Again it will be breezy and a switch to a westerly wind later into the night. Max 29°C Min 16°C

Sunday: Winds are now expected from a westerly direction, so this will have an impact on the temperature knocking it back down several degrees. Another reasonable day ahead with sunny spells but it will be breezy and there is a slight chance of an afternoon or evening shower which could be thundery. Max 23°C Min 15°C

Outlook: A mixed bag into next week with bright spells and a few showers. Temperatures returning to 19-20°C for a few days and then becoming a little bit warmer towards the end of the week and hopefully high pressure will build again. But at this stage what pans out after midweek next week is uncertain. So stay tuned to my social media accounts for updates.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of June 2025 at 6:16pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather

Hi all,

My weekly blog is back after a few weeks off and a cracking holiday in Zante and whilst I was away it pretty much rained every day back home and the very dry conditions have eased with more rain in the last 2-3 weeks than there has been in the previous few months.

Today, Wednesday, we have picked up a southeasterly feed which is dragging in much warmer and humid air. You will have noticed that it’s turned out on Wednesday to be a very warm day but the question is how long are these conditions set to last?

It’s going to remain humid for a couple of days, but we aren’t going to be seeing wall-to-wall sunshine. Weather-fronts will be moving in from the west and the southwest during Thursday and Friday so we are expecting some rain which could be thundery at times. It’ll be fresher by the weekend.

Thursday: It’ll be a warm and humid start with some sunny spells, but cloud will soon increase from the southwest. As we head towards the afternoon, a band of thundery rain is expected to arrive lasting a few hours and it will turn windy. Later in the day and heading towards late-evening it should become drier but it’ll still remain muggy leading to a uncomfortable night for sleeping. Max 23°C Min 15°C Max Gusts 30mph

Friday: Friday will be another humid day with some sunny spells, but cloud will bubble up later into the afternoon and there will be some isolated thundery showers breaking out which will be hit-and-miss. Once these move through, especially overnight away to the north of the region, slightly fresher air will arrive behind them. Max 24°C Min 12°C Max Gusts 25mph

Weekend: Not too bad at all.

Saturday: Sunny spells after any overnight rain pushes away to the north. I can’t rule out a dry day with a few showers breaking out into the afternoon, again these could be thunderstorms. Otherwise not too bad and feeling fresher. Windy at times. Max 20°C Min 10°C Max Gusts 25mph

Sunday: It looks like a decent day with conditions perfect as the humidity has now moved on. Sunny spells, dry and a little bit windy. Max 19°C Min 10°C Max Gusts 25mph

Outlook: As we head into next week, high pressure will initially ridge up from the Azores but for the first few days we will get some cloud coming round the high pressure from the northwest, but is it expected to stay mostly dry. Later in the week the high pressure will centre itself across the UK and we can expect the week to be dry with plenty of sunny spells and because of the wind direction, temperatures are expected to be around normal with no heatwave or high humidity expected. Beyond this is uncertain so make the most of next week and enjoy some pleasant temperatures.

Follow @ChadWeather on X or Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast issued on Wednesday 11th of June 2025 at 6:50pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & meteoblue.

Hi all,

The “rainless” May goes on here. Yes I know we had some rainfall early one morning but it didn’t register, so the total for May still stands at 0mm.

We (UK) are on course for the driest and sunniest spring ever recorded. It’s simply been an incredible season but places are getting desperate for rain now.

The local reservoir levels are at 56% compared to 83% this time last year.

So when will it rain? Not for at least another week. There are signs however of low pressure replacing high pressure as we head towards the Bank Holiday weekend, typical, but it still remains to be seen if the low will be strong enough to oust the stubborn high.

Before that, plenty more of the same. Sunny skies, warm, dry and breezy at times. No sign of a heatwave for now, as the positioning of the high means we won’t be tapping into any hot air from the south.

UV levels are now HIGH 11AM TO 2PM.

Thursday: Similar to Wednesday, there is a chance that we start the day with some low-cloud that has drifted in from the northeast. This will be a little stubborn to clear but it will burn off leading to another glorious day with plenty of sunshine. Winds a little gusty. Warmest in the west. Cool overnight where winds fall lighter.  Max 18-20°C Min 5°C Max Gusts 25mph

Friday: Temperatures rising a touch. Still windy though, more so into the afternoon. Dry and sunny. Max 22°C Min 7°C Max Gusts 25mph

Weekend: If you’ve not had a BBQ yet then what are you waiting for? Little change.

Saturday & Sunday: Might as well group these days together as they will be very similar. Plenty of sunshine, most likely wall-to-wall sunshine. Dry and again a breezy northeasterly. Max 22°C Min 8°C Max Gusts 20mph

Outlook: It’s quite a simple outlook for most of the week as high pressure continues to stay in charge, bringing sunny skies and dry conditions. Temperatures sitting around 20°C. It’s later in the week, where the forecast gets a little bit tricky from this far out, but there are signs, which I’ve been hinting at for a few days now, that high pressure will slip away and low pressure will start to bring weather-fronts in from the west. We will finally see some rain and this could mean the final week of May brings unsettled conditions. One to watch for now and look out for updates on social media. The petrichor smell will be epic.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 14th of May 2025 at 7:20pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

It’s turning out to be an amazing Spring with plenty of settled weather, also meaning it’s been very dry. It’s no surprise that we’ve had the sunniest March and April on record across the UK.

I’ve said it for a few weeks now. We need some rain. We are well below-average for Spring, sitting at 23% of the average rainfall, And yet again there is no sign of any significant rainfall amounts over the next 2 weeks.

High pressure, that has been in control of our weather this week, has been in a position to bring some cloud in from the North Sea, making it cooler at times. This cloud moves around the high so sunny spells have been coming and going.

Towards the end of the week, this high will slip away to the northeast and introduce a drier and warmer south-to-southeasterly airflow. Temperatures will respond. This will then be replaced by another high pressure that will slip in from the west as we head into next week bringing further dry weather and pleasant sunny spells.

It was a cold start to Tuesday this week, with a ground frost in many places and some places recording an air frost but this is not unusual for early-May, especially under the influence of high pressure, clear skies and light winds. A couple of chilly nights to come this week but from Friday the risk, for frost, for now has passed.

Thursday: Still variable amounts of cloud throughout the day so sunny spells one minute and then thicker cloud the next. Dry and with that high pressure starting to slip away there will be a keen breeze. Warmest in sheltered western parts. Max 18°C Min 5°C

Friday: Feeling much warmer with more in the way of sunshine and lighter winds. Very pleasant indeed. Max 20°C Min 6°C

Don’t forget your sun cream if you’re out and about in the sun for a lengthy period of time. UV levels are now up to HIGH around lunchtime and MEDIUM for most of the morning and the afternoon.

Weekend: Decent. One hand on the BBQ, one hand watering the garden .

Saturday: Some early mist and another great day, warm with sunny spells. Max 22°C Min 7°C

Sunday: With southerly winds in place and plenty of sunshine temperatures will lift and it will really feel like summer again. Some cloud could well bubble up enough later in the day/evening to produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm as the air gets a little bit of instability from a low pressure to the south of the UK. Max 22°C Min 9°C

Outlook: There is an outside chance, later on Sunday and into Monday, of an isolated shower. Otherwise, the week will be dominated again by high pressure slipping in from the west, bringing plenty of sunshine and temperatures close or into the 20s °C. With us only having a quarter of our rainfall during March and April, we will now be 2 weeks into May without any significant rain.

If this continues, we could well start to hear the words drought or hosepipe ban mentioned in the news. It’s got to change at some point and I’m not complaining about the lovely weather, but we are definitely in need of some rain.

Thanks for stopping by to read. For more forecasts and warnings please follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 7th of May 2025 at 6:06pm.

Images: The Met Office & http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & BBC Weather.

Hi all,

We’ve had more decent weather this week. It really has been a good spring so far and very dry. We are well-below average rainfall since the start of February.

The last day of April saw my warmest April day on record. My data goes back to 2013. The max was 25.9°C recorded at 4:49pm.

Humidity levels have been low too. Perfect drying weather.

For the NW of England it’s been the driest Feb-Apr period since 1938. Thanks to @kevirlam on X for this stat.

Thursday: Hot, with sunny spells and feeling more humid. It will be the last summer-like temperatures of this week as temperatures will cool off as a weakening cold-front comes down from the northwest. There will also be another weather-front to the south of the UK. So, the air will be a little bit more unstable on Thursday and with the heat there is just a chance (15%) that we see some isolated showers breaking out which could be locally heavy and thundery. Currently this is more likely to happen to the south of our region. Max 26°C Min 8°C

Friday: It looks like we’ll be in the middle of decaying weather-fronts, so a dry day is expected with plenty of sunny spells. Cooler than recently which some of you will be thankful for and dry. Cool overnight. Max 20°C Min 6°C

Long Weekend: Question marks over the bank holiday.

Saturday: Looks like a decent day with bright spells, dry and light winds. Temperatures still above average so feeling pleasant out there but a cool wind developing later. Cold night. Max 19°C Min 4°C

Sunday: Some uncertainty but it looks like a pool of colder air will drift in from the north/northeast with some thicker cloud making it feel chilly. Western areas could well hang on to some sunshine and temperatures warmer here. Winds will be gusty. Max 12-16°C Min 5°C Max Gusts 25mph

Bank Holiday Monday: Looks chilly with cloud dragged in on a cold wind from the northeast. Should remain dry. Warmer to the sheltered west/southwest. Cold night. Max 13°C Min 3°C

Outlook: A lot of dry weather and temperatures slowly recovering. Days of bright or sunny spells. The wait for unsettled weather with plenty of rain goes on.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 30th of April 2025 at 8:35pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

We’ve had some welcome rain this week, 4.2mm on Easter Monday. Typical that it rains on a Bank Holiday but Easter Sunday was a cracker. It wasn’t exactly cracking the flags, only 16°C, but plenty of sunshine was on offer and it felt warm.

It’s been a very dry 2025 and spring so far. So far in 2025 we’ve had only 58% of the average rainfall. These stats below show how dry it’s been with 44% of that rainfall falling on just 4 days.

Thursday: Not a bad day. Bright or sunny spells and very pleasant in the sun. Cloud will bubble up enough to produce a localised shower or two but most will stay dry. With inland convection going on this means west will be best with more sunshine along the coast. Cloud thickening overnight. Max 17°C Min 7°C

Friday: A bright start but clouding over from the west with some patchy rain arriving later in the day. Cooler with a slight breeze picking up. Max 15°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Improving into Sunday.

Saturday: Cloudy with morning rain, albeit patchy and light. Drier later with sunny spells. Max 15°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Sunny spells developing and temperatures responding nicely. Feeling warmer but a stiff southwesterly wind at times. Max 19°C Min 8°C

Outlook: The first half of next week looks good. Warm with sunny spells and the potential for some very warm temperatures. 21°C or more possible. If the weather patterns go to the forecast we could see 23°C easily. Dry throughout the week with sunny spells. The warmth might just trigger some home-grown showers later in the week. There is some uncertainty on how long the warmer-than-average spell lasts next week so look out for social media updates. At this stage it looks like it will cool off/break from the Friday.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of April 2025 at 5:40pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Our amazing first half of April is over and we’ve finally measured some rainfall this month. It is going to be a bit more unsettled over the next week or so. Pinning down how wet it’s going to be will be tricky as there will be weather-fronts close by, especially to the west, which is likely to see the wettest weather over the next few days.

If you’re looking for the best day of the week then Thursday and Saturday look the best.

Thursday: A much better day with plenty of sunny spells and breezy. Dry for most if not all. Just the low risk of an isolated shower breaking out. Feeling warm in the sunshine. UV levels moderate. Max 15°C Min 5°C Max Gusts 20mph

Friday: Temperatures still quite respectable on Friday. But any early brightness will fade as cloud will thicken from the west and southwest. There is a bit of uncertainty on where rain will fall on Friday, but any rain is expected to be mostly to the west with eastern areas remaining dry but cloudy. Max 16°C Min 6°C Max Gusts 20mph

Weekend: Hopeful but changes possible so look out for updates on social media.

Saturday: The forecast for the weekend over the last couple of days has flipped and flopped. One minute showery rain the next dry with sunny spells. At the moment the latter is favourable for Saturday with the UK surrounded by low pressure, we should be sitting pretty in between with sunny spells. Dry but windy, a keen northeasterly developing, taking the edge off the temperature. Max 14°C Min 3°C Max Gusts 30mph

Sunday: The northeasterly airflow is likely to start to drag some cloud in off the North Sea. So after a bright start it will cloud over but it should remain dry. Any brightness into the afternoon is likely to be the further west you are. Feeling chilly in a gusty wind. Max 14°C Min 5°C Max Gusts 25mph

Outlook: A reasonably active Jet Stream next week will mean we will see the occasional unsettled spell, so expect days with a few bright spells but equally some showers or showery rain at times. A bit of a mix. Anyone missing those endless days of blue skies yet?

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 16th of April 2025 at 9:18am.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com