Hi all,

January was quite a cold month and wet with 108mm of rain. The overall average temperature was +3.1°C. We managed a high of 11.0°C (16th). By contrast we pretty much saw temperatures at zero or below, overnight, on the first 12 days of the month.

One thing to note about the 108mm of rain is: most of this fell over 3 days. 30.2mm (1st), 27mm (5th), and 13mm (27th). So realistically January had plenty of dry days. In fact 9 days dry and a further 9 days with <= 1mm of rain.

We also saw some snow which caused disruption at Manchester airport, 4 days out of 5. And enough snow for me to enjoy some sledging.

February has started with rain falling on 4 out of the first 5 days but drier days are ahead; but colder. How cold? Read on for the full outlook.

Thursday: It’ll be a frosty start with perhaps a few mist patches and once these are clear, it’ll be a lovely winter’s day with plenty of sunshine and light winds. Another frost overnight with a higher risk of mist or fog forming. Max 7°C Min -1°C

Friday: Another cold start with fog in places and a frost once again, albeit not as cold as Thursday. The mist might lift into low-cloud in places and be a bit stubborn to clear, but once it does another day of bright or sunny spells, variable cloud and feeling just a little cooler. Cold wind. Max 6°C Min -1°C

Weekend: Colder air from the east.

Saturday: It’s likely to be a cloudier start which will take some shifting, but eventually, especially west of high ground, some sunny spells will break through. Another dry day with the temperature coming down a notch and not windy. Max 5°C Min 0°C

Sunday: A patchy frost to start where areas have seen some clear spells overnight. Otherwise, the easterly flow has dragged in some cloud. So a cloudier day is expected and feeling colder due to the lack of brightness. Any sunshine is likely to be in the west and southwest. But at least it’s dry with just the outside chance of some snow flurries where cloud is thickest. Max 5°C Min 0°C

Outlook: There’s been a lot of talk about significant cold coming from Russia. Even though we start the week with an easterly feed and temperatures below average, the weather is expected to stay in a similar pattern with similar temperatures for the remainder of the week and a lot of dry conditions. There just might be the odd shower drifting in from the east which could be wintry but there will also be a notable wind-chill.

It’s a long way off at the moment, but the models were hinting, earlier this week, that some significant cold was coming from the east, as we head towards next weekend, but yesterday the models did a U-turn. This could chop and change over the coming days. But at this stage and so far out, deep-cold is favouring a no-go. So stay tuned to my updates on social media. Of course the media have already got a hold of this, so you’re bound to see over the top sensational headlines in the tabloids.

Follow @Chadweather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 5th of February 2025 at 5pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather.

Hi all,

It was a wet and wild weekly blog last week but even after two more named-storms in the Atlantic since then, we haven’t seen any disruptive weather like other parts of the UK have experienced. Some parts of Ireland are still without power after Storm Éowyn.

Not much happening over the coming days. A mixture of some reasonable days with bright or sunny spells and equally some cloudy days. The latter will be when weather-fronts are coming through the region but weakening all the while as it comes up against high pressure which will have developed over continental Europe. Nothing significantly cold, very snowy or very wet in the next 7 days.

Thursday: A widespread frost to start, although there’s a chance of some cloud bringing a light shower out west, then a decent day with sunny spells, perhaps turning hazy later. That sun is starting to get some warmth in it now and we should start to record UV levels very soon. Breezy later and cloud thickening overnight means another frost is unlikely. Max 7°C Min 1°C

Friday: Cloudy and breezy to start after rain during the early hours (wintry on the tops with the chance of a dusting of snow in places) eases away. Bright spells follow, eventually, and winds will ease. Still chilly but nothing particularly cold. Max 7°C Min 2°C

Weekend: Mostly dry but risk of mist.

Saturday: A misty start and this could lift into low-cloud in places which will struggle to clear. Other places seeing bright spells. Dry. Max 7°C Min 3°C

Sunday: Cloudier but I’m hopeful it will be another dry day during daylight hours, with limited brightness even though a weather-front will come in from the west, it is likely to decay. Possible hill-drizzle towards evening. Temperatures similar. Max 7°C Min 2°C

Outlook: Looks like high pressure will be the most dominant of weather but some weakening weather-fronts will sink southeast bringing patchy rain. No sign of anything significantly cold just yet but some models hint at an easterly as we enter the second week of February. Believe it when I see it.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 29th of January 2025 at 4:41pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Since the deluge of New Year’s Eve/New Year’s Day and the 5th of the month, rainfall amounts over the past couple of weeks have been suppressed, but it’s not been exclusively dry and bright. We’ve seen many days cloudy, dull, foggy and damp with extensive drizzle and patchy rain. The weather hasn’t been that mobile over the past 10 days due to high pressure being close by, bringing benign conditions. With a more active Jet Stream on the way, we are set to see unsettled weather return from Thursday onwards and as some might say, ‘we are back to the norm’.

Thursday: Thursday will start bright and cold but cloud will soon thicken from the west and rain is expected from mid-morning and this will last into the afternoon, probably towards the evening in a few places. After a relatively calm start, it will be a windy afternoon with 40mph gusts, but remember this is not Storm Éowyn, as that will be coming on Friday. Max 7°C Min 3°C

Friday: Most of the recent named-storms that we have had, have seen the strongest winds occur during nighttime, when most people are at home. This storm will bring the strongest winds during the daytime, which means disruption will be high across parts of the UK. Yes, we will mostly miss the worst of the winds but I’m still expecting gusts, widely, of 45-65mph and on coasts and hills in excess of 75 mph, locally higher.

Currently parts of the region are split into two warning areas. An amber warning and a yellow warning. I for one would certainly stay at home if I was in the amber warning area.

With it expected to be a wild day, if you can stay at home and don’t need to travel, then do so.

Parts of the UK most at risk are Northern Ireland, Southern Scotland and parts of North Wales, Northern England and the far North West of England. These areas could see gusts in excess of 80-90 mph. There will be people that need to travel or just ignore these warnings and unfortunately it would not surprise me to see some fatalities. The conditions are going to be so bad.

At the time of writing there has not been a red warning issued by the Met Office, but it would not surprise me if they do issue one. Take this storm seriously. It will be one of the strongest for many years for some areas, whereas other areas, nothing more than a typical winter storm.

This storm has been formed by the recent cold plunge in America, where cold air has met tropical air. The temperature gradient has kick-started the Jet Stream, which then picks up an area of low pressure out in the Atlantic and because it’s very active, top speeds of 250-265mph, the area of low pressure deepens rapidly, hence this powerful storm (winds of 120-140mph out to sea).

Aside from the wind, the weather won’t actually be too bad. Early rain clears to sunny spells and the odd shower. Winds drop off significantly into the night allowing a frost to form. Max 8°C Min 0°C

Weekend: Saturday’s best.

Saturday: We have a bit of a respite with a ridge of high pressure, albeit brief on Saturday. This means it will start chilly with a frost in places, but then we should have a day of sunny spells and dry conditions and it will be much calmer with lighter winds compared to Friday. Cloud increasing later into the evening. Max 6°C Min 1°C

Sunday: Hopefully a dry start and we might squeeze out most of the morning dry but cloud will thicken from the west again, as another area of low pressure arrives. Rain is expected into the afternoon and evening and winds will increase again, nothing like Friday, but 40mph gusts are still possible. Feeling cold, especially with the wind but turning slightly milder overnight. Max 7°C Min 5°C

Outlook: Remaining unsettled with spells of cloud, wind and rain. Temperatures around average so feeling particularly chilly when windy and some cool nights, but not many frosts are expected due to the cloud cover and breeze. Any good news I hear you say? Hopefully by next weekend there are signs that the weather may settle down again, so fingers crossed! No sign of anything significantly cold or snowy.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast issued on Wednesday the 22nd of January 2025 at 4:10pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com, Met Office & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

High pressure is close by this week, so controlling our weather, but with light winds and at this time of the year this can bring stubborn cloud or fog but also depending on your position relevant to the high, sunny spells.

The weather has settled down recently after a lengthy cold and snowy spell. It will snow again this winter no doubt and be very cold but I bet we don’t see a week of cold and snow again this winter, even though the long range weather models are predicting a very cold spell. Those spells seem to be getting more rare these days.

For the here and now, more fog has been around these past 24-36 hours but this should shift as the breeze picks up and drier air arrives. And, with the stubborn cloud to our southeast and rain-bearing clouds to our far northwest; it looks like we will see some decent sunny spells for a day or two. Enjoy it if you manage to get out and about.

Thursday: A cold start with a widespread ground-frost and an air-frost in places. Plenty of mid-winter sunny spells on offer and feeling pleasant in the sun. Cloud will increase into the evening and the southerly breeze will pick up so the night will be frost-free. Max 7°C Min 3°C

Friday: Looks like a mostly cloudy day with some breaks. Clear spells overnight leading to a cold one. Max 8°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Colder. 

Saturday: We drag in colder air from the near continent. After a cloudy start sunny spells should break through. Breezy. Max 5°C Min 0°C

Sunday: A few bright spells for the morning but the general thinking is that a weakening weather-front moves in from the west with very little or no rain on it at all. Cold. Max 4°C Min 1°C

Outlook: After that weak weather-front decays another high pressure builds in, so a bit of a repeat of what we are seeing this week. Plenty of dry conditions, some bright spells but some low-cloud coupled with foggy days can’t be ruled out. Towards the end of the week it currently looks favourable for the Atlantic to return, so spells of wind and rain. Of course this far out, nothing is certain and some models go the opposite with much colder air filtering in from the east. The battle of mild vs. cold could well be on.

Thanks for reading and follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of January 2025 at 10:50am.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com and snow melting in the Clough Head Café car park.

Hi all,

Hello. My weekly blog is back after a 2-week break over the Christmas period. I hope you all had a great holiday and I wish you all the best for 2025.

It’s been an eventful 2 weeks with heavy and persistent rain on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day. I recorded the most rainfall ever in a 24-hour period. In fact, 68mm of rain fell in just 18 hours, bringing horrendous flooding to parts of the region.

More recently the weather has turned much colder and we are now into our fifth day of lying snow in some places. It’s not often these days that we get snow, let alone see snow falling day-after-day. And I can’t remember the last time that Manchester airport had delays for three days in a row for snow on the runway.

The first initial snowfall was accompanied by some strong winds which led to drifting on the hills where depths were recorded of 1-2ft. Normally, when we get a warning for snow, which in this case was not just a yellow warning but an amber warning; a lot of us expect it to be a false alarm, especially on low ground where normally it’s rain or sleet that arrives. But this time even lower ground managed to get some snow with several inches in places. Here in Chadderton I managed 2.5 inches (6cm) and enjoyed Sunday morning out sledging.

I hate the cold when it’s wet but I love the cold when it’s sunny and especially when we have some snow. So I’ve enjoyed the last few days and I managed to get out and about on Wednesday to Ogden reservoirs and the scenery was stunning.

So, when will the cold go?

It is set to remain cold until into the weekend. With clearing skies over the next couple of nights, temperatures will plummet and because we have snow-cover in some areas, this will help to lower the temperature further and I would not be surprised to see rurally in the hills, -10°C and in Northern England or Scotland a low between -15°C and -20°C.

Thursday: A harsh frost to start with plenty of ice. There could also be the odd freezing fog patch. Hopefully, once cleared, it should be a nice day with plenty of sunshine, albeit a bit hazy. There will be some wintry showers but these should be way out to the west. Temperatures struggling to get above freezing and after dark another severe frost will set in and temperatures could get close to negative double-figures rurally and where we have snow-cover. Max 1°C Min -9°C

Friday: Dry with hazy bright or sunny spells after a very cold start. Cloud will thicken later but it should remain dry with another frost overnight but not as cold as recently due to more in the way of cloud. Max 2°C Min -3°C

Weekend: Slowly but surely milder air will start to push the cold away into the continent.

Saturday: A slight frost to start and then it should be a mostly cloudy day making it feel cold with limited bright spells. There is a weather-front moving in from the west slowly, which is going to bring milder air and initially this might have some light sleet and snow on it. But at this stage this is expected to decay as it pushes into the region so not much in the way of precipitation is expected. The breeze will pick up which will make it feel colder than what it is but still a chilly day overall. Max 3°C Min -1°C

Sunday: Sunday looks like the day of change but the majority of the day should still be cold and cloudy. Winds will pick up later in the day and will eventually switch to a milder southwesterly direction. Chilly especially in the wind, but overnight temperatures will start to rise as milder air pushes in from the Atlantic. Max 4°C Min 3°C

Outlook: Much milder with temperatures returning close to double figures. The first part of the week is expected to be cloudy. Perhaps thick enough for drizzle at times but a lot of dry weather and the second half of the week should see more in the way of sunshine. Snow is not expected. In fact not much rain is expected either with a lot of dry weather due to high pressure being in charge.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 8th of January 2025 at 6:08pm.

Images: http://www.netweather.tv & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

December, these days, always seems mild. Much colder years ago and this December has been no different. Temperatures on Wednesday morning were into the teens in some places. A White Christmas is on-hold for another year.

Thursday: Much colder air now in place with a fresh west-to-northwesterly airflow. A decent day though with sunny spells and most showers out to the west, which could fall as hail. Windy, making it feel colder (like 0°C). Ground-frost developing later but lifting as cloud arrives later in the night. Max 6°C Min 3°C

Friday: Back to the mild and wet. Cloud thickening during the morning with rain pushing east late-morning and into the afternoon. Drier into the evening. Windy. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Weekend: Very windy at times, some wintry showers and eventually colder.

Saturday: A weather-front will bring some patchy rain from the north-west during the morning, turning showery later. Tightly-packed isobars means a strong and gusty wind will be present, with gusts to 50mph. Possible warning could be issued but as for a named-storm, this for now, seems unlikely. Max 10°C Min 4°C

Sunday: Colder air will have followed in behind those showers and with it again being a windy day (45mph), the wind-chill will be notable (0°C). Generally cloudy with some showers, which could be wintry on the tops and fall as hail in places. Max 6°C Min 4°C

Outlook: Damp and mild at first but hopefully drier for Christmas Day with high pressure building leading to some bright spells and mild with temperatures of about 10-12°C. The following days look good; dry with sunny spells developing and feeling pleasant in any sunshine with light winds and maximum temperatures into double-figures. No chance of a White Christmas.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com
Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 18th of December 2024 at 6:40pm

Hi all,

More anticyclonic gloom this week but at least this time it won’t last that long. That said, after a slight change over the weekend, we could well be back to overcast skies next week until the Atlantic returns bringing more unsettled weather. As we approach the festivities we could well see some colder air come down from the north.

Thursday: Very similar to recent days. Cloudy skies and perhaps thick enough for some hill-drizzle. Otherwise, mostly light winds, dull and dry. No frost due to cloud-cover. Max 7°C Min 3°C

Friday: A bit of rinse and repeat. Overcast. Perhaps the odd splash of rain and winds turning southwesterly later. Max 8°C Min 3°C

Weekend: Turning milder.

Saturday: Early cloud and patchy rain will sink southeastwards with bright spells following on behind. Cloudy late-evening. Breezy. Max 8°C Min 6°C

Sunday: Milder with plenty of cloud and reasonably windy. Misty on the hills. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Monday/Tuesday look mostly dry, windy and cloudy. Temperatures just creeping into double-figures. It is then expected to turn more unsettled later in the week. As we approach Christmas the long-range forecast suggests slightly colder with plenty of wintry showers. Don’t rule out a snowflake falling on the 25th just yet.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 11th December 2024 at 9:05pm

Hi all,

Winter is here but the temperatures have been a bit up-and-down over the last few days. Currently we’re cold and milder air will again return for Thursday. And yes, you’ve guessed it, colder air returns after that, but this time it’s set to stay. This won’t be proper cold (yet!) but certainly more seasonal with wintry showers, frost and a notable wind-chill.

Thursday: Not a bad morning with dry spells and some hazy sunshine. Cloud increasing and heavy rain arrives for the afternoon, risk of localised flooding. Also turning windy, potentially 40-50mph later in the night (warning in place). Mild but cooler again overnight. Max 13°C Min 5°C

Friday: We turn colder once again with sunny spells and wintry showers feeding down on a northwesterly wind which will be gusty at times. Max 8°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Some uncertainty but a chance of some strong winds or potentially some hill-snow.

Saturday: At the time of writing, a low pressure system is expected to come in from the west and deepen across the UK. There is still some uncertainty on the track and it could track across the central part of the country, meaning we will see some strong winds, rain followed by hill-snow. If it is to track further south along the south coast, then it’d be a day similar to Friday with sunny spells and a few scattered wintry showers and obviously not as windy. It could be our next named-storm. Max 5°C Min -1°C

Sunday: Wherever the low tracks, it will be out of the way by Sunday and we can expect winds to start to turn to a more northerly direction and it will feel cold. Sunny spells and any wintry showers should become confined to any coastal regions. Frost at night. Max 6°C Min 0°C

Outlook: With high pressure out to the west, eventually a northeasterly airflow will develop and it is going to be turning colder with sharp overnight frosts and a few wintry showers but some decent sunny spells. As the week progresses, if the high pressure can start to position itself to the north of the UK, we could start to feed in more of an easterly breeze which again will keep temperatures on the cold side but mostly dry with overnight frosts.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 4th December 2024 at 5:25pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com, The Met Office & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

We enter meteorological winter in this forecast but after some snow last week; is there anymore on the way? No. And to be fair, very little sign of anything particularly cold apart from some chilly nights once we get another very mild spell out of the way.

After last week’s snow, much milder air pushed in and introduced a rapid-thaw, leading to localised flooding. Plus, add 2-3 inches of rain on top of that too. Temperatures continued to climb Saturday night and managed to be steady at 14°C overnight. A couple of degrees higher down south. Exceptional for the time of year.

Thursday: A cold and frosty start with some patchy fog and ice. A decent but cold day with plenty of late-autumn sunshine on offer. Clear spells continue overnight but the wind will increase and this will help to drag in milder air from the southwest, so no frost overnight. If anything temperatures will rise during the night albeit slowly.  Max 6°C Min 5°C

Friday: Weather-fronts will be gathering out west but we’ll have another dry day with bright or sunny spells. Notably windy taking the edge off the slightly milder temperatures. Max 10°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Very mild and eventually wet.

Saturday. A windy and mostly cloudy day but it should remain dry for daylight hours. Some bright spells. Max 13°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Those rain-bearing fronts out west are likely to slip in across the region bringing periods of rain which will become showery in nature as a ridge of high pressure builds from the west, decaying the rain-band. Still mild but a cooler night. Max 13°C Min 6°C

Outlook: A brief ridge of high pressure should mean Monday and Tuesday are drier but cooler with plenty of cloud and some brightness. After that it looks like the low pressure systems in the Atlantic will win out bringing spells of wind, rain and milder conditions, with short bursts of cooler air and some bright spells after the lows clear into the North Sea.

Long-term there were some hints at colder-than-average air returning for mid-December. If this trend looks more favourable I’ll post some thoughts on social media.

Follow @ChadWeather on X and Bluesky (search Oldham Weather) for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 27th November 2024 at 6:18pm.

Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & a photo from my trip to Hebden Bridge on Wednesday.

Hi all,

After a very dry first half of November, things have turned much colder this week and our first taste of winter arrived before the season has even started. We saw some snow on Monday night which was mostly wet-snow but it gave several cms in places and it’s remained on the hills as temperatures have struggled to only a few degrees above freezing.

It’s set to stay much colder-than-average for the majority of this week with a chance of some snow showers on Wednesday and Thursday night, especially so the latter.  This could give another dusting in places.

The weather is all set to change as we head into the weekend as a deep area of low pressure takes control from the Atlantic bringing strong winds and rain, preceded by some snow. Temperatures will creep up and we will be back into double-digits later on Saturday and into Sunday.

Thursday: Very cold and not as sunny as recently, as we drag in some cloud from the Irish Sea. This cloud could produce some wintry showers during the day, but there is a more active setup into the evening with a trough favoured to bring some sleet and snow showers. Several cms of snow can’t be ruled out even in low-lying areas before the showers turn more sleety later on. There is a bit of uncertainty around this trough, so look out for my posts during Thursday. Max 3°C Min -2°C

Friday: Sunny spells, with the odd wintry shower decaying away. Cloudy later as that change from the Atlantic begins. Max 4°C Min -1°C

Weekend: Turning milder but wet and windy after early snowfall.

Saturday: Snow is possible for a time in the morning, especially on higher ground. But soon the snow will turn back to rain and it will become very windy {possible named-storm}. The heavy rain will give way to hefty showers. It will be a slow process but much milder into the late-evening. Gusts to 50mph during the day can’t be ruled out so a warning for wind might be issued. Max 11°C Min 9°C

Sunday: Remaining very windy with sunshine and showers. Very mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Still windy on Monday with showers. The low pressure then moves away into the North Sea and a brief ridge of high pressure will build and it will turn cooler once again for a couple of days but with some welcome sunny spells. Later in the week, low pressure will return, introducing milder conditions again with southwesterly winds, but also some periods of rain or showers. No snow is expected next week.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings. I am also on Bluesky so you can also follow there.

As always, thanks for reading.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of November 2024 at 5:06pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.meteociel.com