Hi all,

Christmas is coming and of course, the talk of a White Christmas is on everyone’s lips. No doubt you’ll see the over-the-top nonsense in the mainstream media but how are our chances looking, realistically?

The latter part of this week, will be mild and frosts are not expected. It’s later next week that eyes turn to the north or northwest to the possibility of colder air drifting down across the UK, increasing the chance of some snow. It won’t be severe cold but cold enough for some wintry precipitation. Remember we only need one snowflake to call it a White Christmas officially.

Thursday: Cloudy to start with patchy rain moving west to east. It should become drier and eventually a bit brighter during the morning. Odd shower possible into the afternoon. Less cold. Max 9°C Min 3°C

Friday: Cloudy with a few bright spells here and there. Windy but this wind will be dragging in much milder air as the day goes on. It should be dry at least which is what we need right now. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Weekend: Mostly cloudy with brisk winds.

Saturday: Low pressure to the northwest and high pressure to our south means we will be in between with gusty, moist southwesterly winds. These will bring a lot of cloud, perhaps some hill-drizzle but most areas dry. Mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Cloudy but dry to start. As the day progresses weather fronts to our northwest will slowly slip southeast bringing the increased risk of some light rain or drizzle. Windy and mild once again. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Outlook: We start the week wet and in the mild air still. As the week progresses, and it will be a windy week, the Jet Stream will slip further and further, albeit slowly, south. This will allow cooler and then cold air to slip down from the north or northwest. In the few days leading up to Christmas, wintry showers are likely, so some snow is possible on higher ground. If this lasts until Christmas Day, 2023 could well be officially a White Christmas. Look out for updates on X (@ChadWeather).

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 13th of December 2023 at 7:30pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

November 2023 Stats:

After the cold spell, and some snow early in winter, the weather has slowly returned to what we are accustomed to. Rain. Less cold and a lack of sunshine. But today {Wednesday} was a brief cold and frosty day again. I certainly prefer those crisp blue skies even if it’s Baltic. And of course, I’m partial to a snowflake or ten.

Thursday: Cloudy with pulses of heavy rain moving north-north-east, especially into the afternoon. Brisk winds will become gusty (35mph) with a slightly milder, but still feeling cold airflow after a cold 24 hours prior. Max 7°C Min 6°C

Friday: Low pressure in charge bringing bands of showery rain. The odd bright spell in between but like gold-dust. Breezy at times especially during showers. Milder. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Weekend: Dominated by unsettled conditions.

Saturday: It’s a bit of a rinse and repeat, with showers or longer spells of rain coming in from the west after a dry start in the east. Remaining windy. Should sneak double-digits in a few favourable spots. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Sunday: Yet more rain is expected. Mild and breezy. Groundhog day. Max 9°C Min 6°C

Outlook: Little change into the first half of next week with the Jet Stream bringing bouts of rain. Signs of something less wet, cooler and not as mobile from midweek with a ridge of high pressure building leading to some drier conditions but mist or fog likely as winds slacken.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of December 2023 at 4:15pm.
Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Winter officially, and meteorologically-speaking, starts on Friday and we enter it with temperatures well-below average and with a moderate frosts on the go, but, snow is what we all want, yeah? Well it’s not everyone’s favourite ingredient and it looks like this lengthy cold spell is going to be wasted when it comes to a decent snowfall.

Thursday: Cold and frosty with some localised mist or fog which might be slow to clear. Otherwise dry with sunny spells. A little breezy. Max 3°C Min -4°C

Friday: Similar pattern continues. Sunny by day, once fog/low-cloud lifts, frosty by night. Dry. Max 3°C Min -4°C

Weekend: Perhaps more in the way of cloud with the chance of some wintry showers.

Saturday: Early freezing fog will clear to bright or sunny spells but some wintry showers, snow above 150M, could be knocking around. Hard to say at this stage but more possible than earlier in the week. A bitter day. Max 2°C Min -3°C

Sunday: Cloudier with some bright spells and again the chance of some scattered wintry showers. Nothing significant. Max 3°C Min -2°C

Outlook: We remain in the cold air, so more frosts to come but currently the models show a change will arrive around the 6th/7th of December, as we switch to a more south-westerly airflow bringing less cold air and eventually some rain and wind. It will have been a cold start to winter and disappointing to not have taken advantage of this and had some decent snowfall. Knowing our winters, the next cold spell will be March 😂.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

As always thanks for reading.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Tuesday 28th November 2023 at 7:38pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather

Hi all,

Still no 600-feet tall wall of snow on the way 😀 but our first cold snap as winter approaches is. Northerly winds will bring frost(s) and clearer blue skies with welcome sunshine but more importantly we’ve lost the relentless rain with high rainfall totals.

Tuesday was only our second day this month without measurable rainfall. So we need a break. There is still some rain around in this forecast but the general theme ahead is drier.

Thursday: A windy (30mph gusts) and cloudy day with some patchy rain. A more organised band of rain will sink south on a cold-front into the evening, pushing away the mild air and temperatures will fall away. Max 12°C Min 4°C

Weekend: Cold but milder air to return?

Friday: Cold Arctic air will slowly filter south, and with the windchill it will feel like a couple of degrees above freezing. The north-westerly wind will be gusty at times. Sunny spells with some cloud, especially out west. Clear skies and lighter winds overnight will lead to a frost forming. Max 6°C Min -2°C

Saturday: A frost to start then a cold but dry day with sunny spells and lighter winds. Frost likely to set in again into the evening and first part of the night but cloud could well lift temperatures later in the night. Max 5°C Min 0°C

Sunday: Depending on cloud-cover it could be another frosty start in places. Cloud is expected to topple down from the north-west making any sunshine hazy then lead to a cloudy afternoon. With the lack of sunshine it will feel cold still, despite less cold air feeding in. Patchy rain possible later into the evening. Max 6°C Min 3°C

Outlook: What the weather brings next week, is not certain. It’s more favourable to turn slightly milder again from the west with some showery rain and with some colder spells from the north-west.

But, some computer models today are signalling for an easterly wind to set in. Less likely to happen but if it were to lock-in, it will become much colder with a sharp wind, and perhaps cold enough for a few snow flurries. For updates on this, look out for my posts on X.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks again for reading.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of November 2023 at 12:32pm.

Images: http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

After a briefly colder, drier and brighter spell we’re back to awful rain and wind. Luckily for us, we missed out on the really strong winds brought by Storm Debi but parts of the region to our west and north did see 60-70mph.

The amount of rain is a concern with golf courses closed and gardens saturated. When will it end? Well, just maybe, high pressure will build in, in a week’s time. Please, we need this.

November 2023 so far……

Thursday: A chilly day with a northeasterly breeze. Mostly cloudy too with some rain arriving into the late-afternoon/evening. Max 8°C Min 5°C

Friday: Early rain then it should become drier and brighter into the afternoon. Similar temperatures. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Weekend: Unsettled with more rain to come.

Saturday: A cloudy and windy day in prospect as heavy rain moves in from the southwest. This will turn more showery and drizzly into the afternoon. Milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 9°C

Sunday: More rain but showery in nature. Again mild and windy. Max 12°C Min 8°C

Outlook: As we head into next week and the final third of November the weather will become cooler, but not that cold, more seasonal shall we say. There will still be some showers around but there is a hint of high pressure trying its best to build from the south-west to give us a respite from the relentless rain and breezy conditions.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 15th of November 2023 at 4:45pm.

Image: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/ & my weather station data

Hi all,

I mentioned last week about the possibility of another named-storm this week and Storm Ciarán was named a few days ago. It will bring some destructive winds but luckily for most of the UK, these will be in northwest France and the Channel Islands, where we could see gusts of over 100mph.

We will dodge the bullet, but the storm will bring us a spell of rain and reasonably gusty winds overnight Wednesday. But overall, it will be a non-event for us.

However, with us being close to the centre of the low we could see some record low pressure values being recorded.

My current record is 961.16mb in February 2014, where incidentally I recorded my strongest ever gust on this day too, of 72mph. Thursday morning is forecast to bring the pressure down to 959mb, so it’s going to be close.

I’ve seen the usual suspects in the media predicting, freezing temperatures and snow. There is currently no sign of this happening, so as usual ignore the clickbait.

So, what is the forecast for the next 4 days?

Thursday: Storm Ciarán will be battering parts way to our south but it’ll be nothing but a breezy one for us after a windy spell during the early hours. It will then be a day of showery rain coming and going, some heavy bursts and some drier spells in between. Feeling cool. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Friday: A better day but breezy. Cool winds and bright spells and a few showers. Max 10°C Min 5°C

Weekend: Chilly.

Saturday: I’m hopeful for a mostly dry morning albeit quite cloudy, with patchy rain arriving for the afternoon on an easterly breeze. Cool. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Sunday: Bright spells and scattered showers. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Remaining showery with south-westerly winds which will be gusty at times. Nothing significantly colder or milder. Hard to find a dry day.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

As always, thank you for stopping by to read my weekly blog.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 1st of November 2023 at 5:50pm.

Images: BBC Weather & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

October is certainly delivering a wet one, with plenty of flooding across the UK. So far we’ve seen 105mm of rain, and we’ve escaped the worst of it. The average for the whole of October is 107mm so we’ll be exceeding that before month-end. As we enter November little change is expected overall. More unsettled weather to come.

Thursday: Rain from overnight will drift away to the northeast during the morning. Some bright spells follow but with showers from the southwest and a steady breeze. A little milder than recently. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Friday: Low pressure anchored to our west feeding up bands of showers at times. Not all doom and gloom with some bright intervals in between. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Weekend: Low pressure rules again.

Saturday: Showers at times, some heavy and perhaps thundery and slow-moving. But like Friday, there will be slots of drier and perhaps brighter conditions. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Sunday: A little uncertainty for this particular day with a band of persistent and heavy rain likely during the morning. This moves away to the north leaving an afternoon of scattered heavy showers. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Into next week Monday sees further showers but these should be fewer and further between and with clearer skies later a chilly night follows. Tuesday looks the best day with a brief ridge of high pressure bringing a drier and sunnier day. Wind and rain to return as the week progresses. No sign of any drastic change in the daytime temperatures but they will drop a little next week making it feel a little chilly at times.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as ever for reading and I hope you find this weekly blog useful.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 25th October 2023 at 12:46pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & BBC Weather.

Hi all,

We’ve been enjoying warmer-than-average temperatures recently with a mixture of some warm bright days and then muggy wet ones. Our weather pattern is changing over the next few days and the thermometer is dropping but that doesn’t necessarily mean we won’t be seeing any sunshine. In fact, the total opposite as high pressure looks to visit our shores for a week or so.

Thursday: After a horrid Wednesday it will be a much-improved day with widespread sunny spells developing. Perhaps even wall-to-wall sunshine in places. But, we are now in a much cooler air-mass and after a chilly start, temperatures will only rise into the teens. Cloud will return into late-evening so not as fresh overnight with heavy rain moving in. Max 13°C Min 9°C

Friday: Cloud and rain again return on a milder southwesterly airflow. Similar to Wednesday, this rain will eventually sink away to the southeast and we look to the northwest for our weather as colder air arrives leading to a chilly night with clearing skies. Max 14°C Min 6°C

Weekend: Plenty of sunshine but cold nights.

Saturday: Sunny spells and just the odd afternoon shower feeding in from some Irish Sea convection. Feeling colder after Friday’s milder spell and with clear skies overnight a widespread ground-frost will form. Max 10°C Min 2°C

Sunday: It’s looking like a stunning Autumnal day with a ground-frost to start and again forming overnight. During the day it should remain dry with plenty of sunshine on offer. Despite the temperature it will still feel pleasant in the sunshine with light winds. Max 9°C Min 1°C

Outlook: It looks likely that high pressure will control the week’s proceedings bringing some cool nights and dry days with some glorious sunshine on offer. With a slight easterly flow temperatures will be around average for the time of year; maximums of the early-teens and into single figures overnight. Some patchy ground-frost and fog can’t be ruled out. The following week is likely to see a return to more unsettled conditions.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued Wednesday the 11th of October 2023 at 2:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

It’s looking likely that we will see temperatures rise well above normal as we enter the weekend but there is no heatwave expected across the north-west.

Conditions seem set to be warmer and sunnier the further south you are and the hottest weather will be reserved for south-eastern parts of the UK, which is generally the case when we have a waft of heat from France or Spain.

Thursday: Low pressure to our west will swing in some weather-fronts bringing rain at times, especially later with some heavier bursts. Cool and windy. Max 15°C Min 12°C

Friday: Cloudy with rain for the morning. It will tend to become drier into the afternoon with some warmer bright spells. Breezy. Max 19°C Min 13°C

Weekend: Waft of warmth. More cloud on Sunday.

Saturday: High pressure edges in from the south and brings some clearer skies and a warmer airmass. A day of pleasant, very warm sunny spells looks on the cards with temperatures rising. Max 23°C Min 12°C

Sunday: Another warm day is expected but it is also favourable to be cloudier with bright spells. Max 21°C Min 13°C

Outlook: Remaining pleasant to start the week with temperatures into the late-teens. Cooler from midweek with showers or longer spells of rain. Chilly weekend.

Thanks for reading and for up-to-date forecasts and warnings, follow @ChadWeather on X.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 4th of October 2023 at 4:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Thankfully it’s a lot fresher (for now!) than it was during the latter stages of that heatwave. A record dew point was recorded for September and although I enjoyed the dry and sunny weather, going to sleep with temperatures close to 30°C is not pleasant. Tuesday night was cold with a widespread frost in Scotland and a ground-frost in Northern England showing how quickly conditions can change in September.

I’m still to get around to doing all my weather stats from late-2012 to 2023. I need more time. This data will come one day, I promise.

Thursday: A mostly cloudy start with rain during the morning and then again later at night. Some bright spells in between feeling cool with a slight breeze which should ease later. Max 17°C Min 12°C

Friday: A weather-front will stall early on bringing dank conditions and patchy rain. But the current thinking is this should ease away from the region, moving north, during the morning leading to drier day with some warm bright spells. Milder and turning a little humid later. Max 19°C Min 13°C

Weekend: A little uncertainty on rainfall amounts.

Saturday: Looking humid with a risk of hefty and perhaps thundery showers breaking out as low pressure, to the south-west of the UK, controls our weather. A noticeable keen north-easterly wind. Max 19°C Min 14°C

Sunday: Similar with a muggy feel with rain or showers at times, some heavy. The exact positioning of these showers will be easier to forecast nearer the time. Quite warm despite the conditions and again a breezy day. Max 20°C Min 13°C

Outlook: Fresher with more of an Atlantic influence bringing bright spells in between spells of showers or prolonged rain. Temperatures around average.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & data provided by Highland Weather on X.

Forecast Issued on Wednesday the 13th of September 2023 at 6:16pm.