Hi all,

The rain keeps coming and after a 7-day dry spell earlier in the month we’ve now had a 9-day wet spell of weather with approx. 1 1/2 inches of unwanted rain. Despite that, it has been mild to very mild but winds are set to turn to a colder direction as we bring March to a close.

Thursday: A better day than yesterday, with mostly cloudy skies, but the cloud will be thin enough at times to allow a few hazy sunny spells to come through. The last milder-than-average day to come this week. Chance of the odd light shower especially later. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Friday: A cold-front will have moved through and with it cloudy skies and some patchy rain. Skies should brighten and it will turn cooler with winds swinging to the northwest. Plenty of sunny spells on offer but convection in the Irish sea will feed in some showers as the day progresses which could be wintry on the hilltops. A much colder-feel especially in the gusty wind. Max 9°C Min 3°C

Weekend: Sunday looks best.

Saturday: A windy and cold day with frequent showers. These will be heavy at times with hail and thunder possible. Bright spells in between. Max 8°C Min 4°C

Sunday: Drier with any early showers becoming confined to the east of the Pennines. Some sunny spells breaking out and winds eventually easing. Still chilly. Max 10°C Min 4°C

Outlook: It’s favourable that it turns a little cooler for the final week of March with some chilly nights and showers, some beefy and thundery with hail by day. Temperatures returning to normal for the last couple of days, perhaps back close to the mid-teens before we enter April. No sign of anything significantly warm yet. I wonder if we’ll see the first 20°C of the year in April or May?

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued Wednesday the 20th of March 2024 at 5pm.
Images: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com, http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com.

Hi all,

Our dry spell earlier this month was not long enough as we still have plenty of saturated ground to drain. We will see further spells of rain over the next 7-10 days but I can’t see a day with very high rainfall amounts, so hopefully with it being spread out it won’t cause too much further localised flooding.

Thursday: Cloudy with a spell of rain during the first half of the morning, then a drier slot but remaining mostly cloudy. Showery rain will return mid-afternoon with some gusty winds. Despite the wind it will feel very mild. Max 14°C Min 8°C

Friday: The odd bright spell but there will also be showers which could be quite heavy at times and thundery. As the afternoon progresses, the showers should ease away and winds will swing to the northwest and it will become cooler. Chilly overnight. A touch of ground-frost overnight cannot be ruled out. Max 10°C Min 3°C

Weekend: Further rain and milder again.

Saturday: A fresh start then most of Saturday doesn’t seem too bad, but from mid-afternoon, after a few bright spells during the morning, cloud will become thick enough and showery rain will arrive from the southwest, especially so into the evening. Not as windy as recent days. Milder overnight. Max 10°C Min 9°C

Sunday: A bit windier and milder and again another mostly cloudy day with showers at times. Max 13°C Min 7°C

Outlook: The first few days of next week, Monday to Wednesday, look to be mild with temperatures of around 13°C. With all that moisture, there’s still bound to be a few showers around. Once an area of low pressure clears, we will drag in some northerly winds for the second half of the week, meaning it will become cooler with temperatures dropping to around 9 or 10°C. Some chilly nights, but there’ll be some welcome sunshine around and the odd scattered shower.

A much colder spell in March with snow is not unusual but there is no sign of it happening this year. It would be nice to have a settled spell of weather again, after 8 dry days earlier this month, and with some warmth, but there is no sign of that either as we remain mixed and unsettled.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast issued: Wednesday the 13th of March at 8:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Finally, we’ve had a break from the relentless rain and unsettled conditions. This week, we’ve seen some pleasant sunshine as we entered the season, meteorological-speaking, of Spring. It’s felt quite warm in the sunshine and sheltered from the breeze and even lawns are being cut. But, although we’ve still had a few frosts, the main plus, has been drier days. But, will this theme continue, as low pressure threatens from our south.

Thursday: More cloud is expected compared to recent days and also the wind is likely to increase as the day wears on to become particularly gusty. Some bright spells around but a bit more of a disturbance in the atmosphere is likely to mean we see a few showers cropping up late-afternoon. Feeling cool in the wind. Max 10°C Min 4°C

Friday: Overcast to start then some sunny spells breaking out here and there. Notably windy with a gusty easterly, to 35mph at times. Feeling chilly in exposure to the wind. A dry day is expected and no frost overnight as cloud rolls in from the south-south-east. Max 9°C Min 4°C

Weekend: Cloudier. Risk of rain returning.

Saturday: A mostly cloudy and windy day with the cloud thick enough at times for some patchy rain or drizzle. Hopefully a bit drier later in the day. Max 10°C Min 6°C

Sunday: Cloudy with some rain or drizzle around in the morning which should ease away into the afternoon. Brightness looks limited. Again, windy taking the edge off the temperature. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Outlook: Western parts of the UK will become more unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain. These weather-fronts will try their best to move into the region but a battle could be on, as high pressure to the east/north-east holds firm. If this high holds out then we might not see much in the way of a lot of rain next week as the GIF below shows. Fingers crossed for another low rainfall total week. Temperatures around average though and no frosts expected. Any winter-like weather looks like it’s done with {famous last words}.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of March 2024 at 6:34pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

It’s been another wet week (now rained for 14 days consecutively) and the same can be said about February, which on average, is the 6th driest month of the year. It now has well-above the average rainfall. 158% to be precise. It’s been another poor month with a lack of sunshine and certainly not wintry apart from one snowfall event which was mostly confined to higher ground.

Thursday: A cold-front will come through before dawn bringing a squall-line of heavy rain and gusty winds. Also, it will bring a colder airmass. The rest of the day will have bright spells and some blustery showers will could be thundery and wintry on the tops. Feeling much colder than recently, especially in the breeze. Patchy ground-frost overnight. Max 8°C Min 2°C

Friday: Cloudy for the morning with some scattered showers. More in the way of bright spells as the day progresses, still with the odd shower. Drying up later with the skies clearing, leading to an overnight frost and ice. Max 9°C Min -1°C

Weekend: Drier than recently.

Saturday: A frosty start, and it looks like a promising day with sunny spells and drier than recently. I can’t rule out an isolated shower drifting in from the Irish Sea though. Lighter winds. Max 9°C Min 1°C

Sunday: There is a chance that a low pressure drifting across southern England reaches us. But, for now that’s not the most likely outcome. However, it will bring some high-cloud, so expect some hazy bright spells after a cold start. Hopefully a dry day but feeling cool with more in the way of a breeze compared to yesterday. Max 8°C Min 4°C

Outlook: A ridge of high pressure building in from the southwest means a couple of settled days to start the working week. Bright spells, a bit windy at times and dry. Temperatures around average but it seems we will have too much of a breeze and cloud-cover to lead to any frosts. After that, it looks set to turn unsettled once more.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 21st of February 2024 at 6pm.

Hi all,

Two weeks left of meteorological winter and the remainder of it looks generally mild to very mild, but there are hints that it turns colder towards the end of the season and into the beginning of Spring.

Thursday: It’ll be a very mild day with moist southerly winds. The day will start cloudy with bits and pieces of rain here and there and some more organised rain around lunchtime. A drier slot then more rain into the evening. This weather-front is a cold front so overnight it will become a little bit cooler. Max 15°C Min 9°C

Friday: A cloudy start with a few showers, but it should improve a little bit into the afternoon with some bright spells, but I can’t rule out it remaining dry everywhere. Quite a brisk westerly wind and cooler than yesterday. Max 11°C Min 7°C

Weekend: More rain but hopefully most will come overnight.

Saturday: Generally cloudy with a few bright spells. The cloud will thicken further as the day progresses and rain is expected late in the day and overnight. Again, it will be very mild for the time of year and breezy. Max 13°C Min 9°C

Sunday: Sunday could well start with a bit of rain which will move away quite swiftly and then it should be a drier day with the odd bright spell and again another mild one. The cloud will thicken further as the day progresses and rain is expected late in the day. Temperatures down just a notch as winds swing more west-to-northwest later. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: We start the working week with mostly cloudy skies and a few batches of showers. A brief ridge of high pressure should allow for a day or a couple of days of drier weather midweek but then it looks to turn a little bit cooler and possibly even colder towards the end of the month with a risk of wintry showers. The colder end to February and start of March is not certain so look out for updates on X. I’m sure winter’s not done with us yet. 

Follow at @Chadweather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 14th of February 2024 at 4:40pm. 

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com, my Weather Station Data and the Weather&Radar app.

Hi all,

Snow is on the way which could be disruptive in places on Thursday, especially so on trans-Pennine routes and areas >300M.

There are two warnings in place. Yellow and Amber.

Yellow from THU 6am to FRI 6am.

Amber from THU Noon to THU 6pm.

Snow is still possible to low-levels with 1-3cm not out of the question. The current Met Office warning has up to 25cm on those higher routes so stay tuned to the forecast.

From the charts above I’m swinging towards chart 3, 4 or 5. I think snow-lovers west of Manchester will be disappointed. I do expect to see some big flakes of snow which are always nice to see even if they don’t stick. So look out for Prawn Cracker snowflakes.

Thursday: Cloudy with rain, sleet and snow pushing up from the south. It is expected to start around 7am. Not too windy for the first half of the day but later on and overnight 50mph gusts are possible with a bitter, sub-zero windchill.

Most areas will see a spell of snow for several hours leading to accumulations even at low-levels but with the intensity varying west of Manchester, here is likely to see rain, sleet and snow, so I can’t guarantee a snow-cover everywhere.

As the day wears on into the afternoon, the snow will continue above 250M, but on lower-lying areas it is expected to become a bit more patchy and we’re likely to see rain and sleet.

A further spell of rain, sleet and snow will arrive overnight, but the snow is expected to be confined to the highest hills and Pennines as temperatures rise.

As always, forecasting snow can be a nowcast situation so look out for my posts on X during Thursday. I expect quite a contrast between lower-levels and areas with elevation above 250-300M.

The Amber warning is there for a reason. If you do plan to travel over the tops, then you might want to consider your travel arrangements as disruptive snow is expected on higher routes. Max 3°C Min 0°C

Friday: The low pressure bringing the rain, sleet and snow will have moved further north now, meaning we are in the milder air. Most areas will have rain at times with any snow being confined to the tops of the Pennines. A thaw of any lying snow will begin. Again, especially during the morning it will be windy with 40mph gusts making it feel cold. Max 6°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Low pressure anchored across the UK.

Saturday: Cloudy with showers here and there and misty to start. Some bright spells are possible in the afternoon. Quite breezy but not as strong as recent days. Milder. Max 9°C Min 4°C

Sunday: Little change. If anything, more in the way of rain. Perhaps a little cooler later as winds switch direction. Max 7°C Min 3°C

Outlook: Mostly cloudy with temperatures around average for the time of year or just above. There will also be patchy rain or showers, but perhaps a brief ridge of high pressure midweek will bring a brighter day. No sign of any significant cold or snow.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 7th of February 2024 at 5:45pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Another winter month completes today and after a cold start it’s ended up being the norm; mild and occasionally wet.

Thursday: A brief ridge of high pressure means a settled day. There will be some bright or sunny spells knocking around but these will tend to be quite hazy. Temperatures will be just a little bit above average but still feeling a little cool. Max 8°C Min 4°C

Friday: A cloudy day with the cloud thick enough to produce some light rain or drizzle and low-cloud on the hills. We’re introducing southwesterly winds which will be very moist and bring with it some very mild air. Max 13°C Min 10°C

Weekend: Mild with the chance of rain.

Saturday: Generally overcast with a weakening band of rain moving south. Mild and windy. Max 12°C Min 8°C

Sunday: Very little change as the band of patchy rain stalls across the region. Not much brightness expected, windy and still mild. Max 12°C Min 7°C

Outlook: Little change. We will stay on the mild side of the Jet Stream. Mostly cloudy with a mild southwesterly airflow bringing patchy rain or drizzle. Perhaps a little more unsettled towards the end of the week. Then, a little cooler from the north as we approach the 10th of February. The wait for our next proper cold spell goes on.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 31st January 2024 at 5pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.eu & http://www.netweather.tv

Hi all,

It’s been a turbulent week. 7 days. 2 named-storms. We’ve now had 10 storms this season. Will we see more before winter is out? Probably yes, but currently no sign of one in the immediate future. Also, little sign of wintry conditions with even frosts redundant.

Unfortunately though, there will be more rain and not much in the way of sunshine, bar Friday.

Thursday: Cloud will have spread in from the southwest overnight. So it will be a wet morning with showery rain moving northeast. Bit of a dry spell and then into the afternoon and evening further showers will move in from the southwest. We are introducing a warm sector though, so it will be very mild for the time of year. Max 13°C Min 8°C

Friday: We lose the warm air as cold fronts move through the region. These will bring some showers for the morning which should soon disappear and with a ridge of high pressure building from the south, it should be a much better day with sunny spells but remaining breezy and notably cooler. Cold overnight with a ground frost. Max 8°C Min 2°C

Weekend: Weather systems to the northwest, high pressure to the south of the UK.

Saturday: A weak cold-front will move through the region bringing a spell of rain but this is not expected to last too long as it will weaken. Quite breezy. Max 9°C Min 5°C

Sunday: A mostly cloudy day as expected and again it will be another breezy one. Just a chance that the cloud might be thick enough for a little bit of drizzle at times as another weather front decays over the region. A little milder. Max 11°C Min 6°C

Outlook: It’ll be mild at first with temperatures into double-figures. The week does look quite unsettled though with rain at times and temperatures slowly cooling off slightly as the week goes on. But no significant cold or frosts are expected and at the moment it won’t be windy enough for any more named-storms.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast issued: Wednesday the 24th of January 2024 at 7:23pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Met Éireann.

Hi all,

It’s been a cold week, very cold at night and snow fell across the region during Tuesday. I know it’s winter and nothing new but we don’t get these wintry spells as often as we used to. Certainly feels that way, so whether you love the snow or crisp winter sunshine it’s nice to have a seasonal spell of weather, rather than the relentless rain and wind. Well, unfortunately the latter is set to return with the potential for some very windy days over the next 7 days.

I’ve spent today walking around Heaton Park. Frost or snow on the ground, Arctic air blue skies and little to no wind make for the best days. We definitely don’t get many days like today that’s for sure! Got to make the most of it.

So, after little rainfall over the last 15 days, including 7 dry days, rain is set to return to bring a wet 4 or 5 days next week.

Thursday: Last night could well have been the coldest night of the winter so far with lows of -8°C rurally. This is helped when snow-cover is present, cooling the air further. Despite the cold and frosty start it will be another stunning day with wall-to-wall sunshine. There is a chance of some snow showers through the region into the late-evening. Another cold night to come. Max 2°C Min -5°C

Friday: Frosty start then another dry day with sunny spells becoming hazy later as the wind swings southwesterly and change is on the way. Patchy frost in the evening lifting later as temperatures slowly rise and cloud rolls in. Max 4°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Milder and wetter.

Saturday: Cloudy but hopefully staying dry for the morning. Drizzle then patchy rain will move in during the afternoon. Less cold, temperatures rising steadily during the day, but with it becoming windy it will still feel cold. Max 6°C Min 5°C

Sunday: Mostly cloudy then a deep area of low pressure will bring much milder temperatures, wind and rain. Warning already in place. Max 11°C Min 8°C

Outlook: Temperatures above normal, especially on Tuesday where we could see values scrape into the teens. A wet week with rain or showers at times and turbulent with Tuesday night into Wednesday showing up as being potentially very windy with gusts to 50 mph. Hopefully high pressure will build back in for a drier and sunnier end to the month.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 17th January 2024 at 2:50pm.

Images: http://www.charts.com, http://www.theweatheroutlook.com & the Met Office

Hi all,

I have weather records for the last 11-12 years. 2023 ranked top when it comes to overall average temperatures.

2023 10.7°C
2022 10.5°C
2014 10.2°C

I went and conducted my second tornado site investigation on Sunday to fill in the gaps of missing data. Again, a lot of damage to property, ridge and slate tiles missing. Also trees damaged from twisted, ripped off branches to full uproots. Here’s a selection of the photos from that day.

So as you can see. Next week looks a lot more complex than this week has been. This week being dominated by high pressure means it can be easy to predict plenty of dry weather although predicting cloud amounts and where those breaks appear can be a challenge. Even a large high can be cloudy and have cloud thick enough for drizzle. Predicting that isn’t easy either.

So will it snow next week? The chances are increasing and certainly more precipitation seems to be in the mix and when we have cold air in place at this time of the year, snow cannot be ruled out. So, watch out for updates on X.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy with a few breaks here and there and also the odd patch of drizzle. Cool. Max 6°C Min 3°C

Friday: Still cloudy but the cloud should not be as thick so drizzle unlikely and more bright spells possible. Lighter winds and a little cooler. Max 5°C Min 1°C

Weekend: Colder air is coming.

Saturday: Another cloudy day and with westerly winds some patchy rain or drizzle could return, especially later in the day. Max 6°C Min 2°C

Sunday: Little change initially with cloudy skies and areas of drizzle. Later in the day the winds will turn more northerly or northwesterly and allow colder, Arctic air to filter south behind cold fronts. Frosty overnight as skies clear. Max 6°C Min -1°C

Outlook: Sunny and cold to start with a few wintry showers on Tuesday. Wednesday could well see sleet and snow push up from the southwest. Where the low pressure tracks will determine how the weather pans out for the remainder of the week and of course which areas will see snow. Look out for updates on X.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of January 2024 at 6pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & the Met Office.