Hi all,

Well summer finally arrived but not exactly wall-to-wall sunshine, but instead sunny spells, dry, very warm and humid conditions.

It took a while but finally we had a day in June that was warmer than the warmest day in May.

After a cool June for most of the month, the averages for May and June are now close. June’s average was running well below May until this recent summery spell.

What has also been noticeable, if you’ve done your garden recently; is that it is drying out somewhat.

Currently June has only had 50% of its expected monthly rainfall. Some areas down in the southeast of England are sitting at only 10%. Currently it’s a 50/50 split with 13 days dry and 13 days with measurable rainfall.

But, cooler and fresher air is on the way as an area of low pressure, bringing gales to NW Scotland, pushes away the heat and humidity through Thursday.

Thursday: The cooler air will arrive Thursday morning as a weakening cold-front moves through. The day will start with a narrow band of patchy rain followed by sunshine. Sunny spells continue but some showers are possible, especially out west later in the day, most likely in the evening. Much cooler and fresher and turning windier later. Max 20°C Min 12°C

Friday: After a few early showers and perhaps a longer spell of rain, the showers will ease and the afternoon should be an improving picture with sunny spells developing. Windy though and this will make it feel like the mid-teens as temperatures return to below the average. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Temperatures below par.

Saturday: It’s expected to be cloudy with some splashes of rain here and there. Not as windy as recently so not feeling as cool. Max 18°C Min 10°C

Sunday: Sunday looks a fine day and hopefully a dry day. Sunny spells for the morning with cloud bubbling up during the day. Breezier again and temperatures disappointing. Max 17°C Min 12°C

Outlook: Poor for the time of year. Mostly cloudy at times with some showers and bright spells in between. Since the sun is strong, it will still feel pleasant where sunny spells occur. It will be occasionally windy and with the wind coming from a westerly or even northwesterly direction at times, temperatures will be below average with us struggling to reach 20°C.  This pattern looks set to continue for the first week of July. Cue the, “that’s summer over” quotes.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of June 2024 at 3:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

I hinted a few weeks ago that the latter part of June should finally bring some warmer weather and this now looks like being the case. I’m no Mystic Meg but June just had to improve at some point as it was so bad.

The warmer feel to our weather starts today, Wednesday, with highs of 20°C and sunny spells. Very pleasant indeed, and personally I prefer that to any sweaty, humid heatwave.

Of course the warmer temperatures will lift the June average, as currently it was at values we would expect to see in October but it won’t be the “warmest” on record like May was (see last week’s post for more information).

So why is it getting warmer? It’s all down to a shift in the Jet Stream which will move north meaning we’ll be on the southern flank where the warmer air is.

Thursday: A cloudy start with some early mist then warm sunny spells will break through. Dry and feeling pleasant. Max 22°C Min 13°C

Friday: Warm with sunny spells but cloud will build later from the west turning the sun hazy. Chance of some patchy rain into the late-evening. Warm. Max 21°C Min 12°C

Weekend: A bit of a blip on Saturday with Sunday the better day.

Saturday: Early cloudy conditions with some patchy rain and showers. Showers will ease and the weather-front will weaken and some sunny spells are expected later. Max 20°C Min 11°C

Sunday: A better day in prospect with warm sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up at times but remaining dry. Feeling warmer. Max 21°C Min 12°C

Outlook: High pressure will mostly control the weather and with a southerly breeze it will gradually become warmer with sunny spells. Temperatures likely to reach 22-24°C, perhaps the probability of 25-26°C as the week progresses but from midweek it is uncertain how the weather will pan out. Some models go hot for England and Wales with a heatwave developing, others show a breakdown from the west to a cooler and showery theme. That said, at least the weather for now is turning more to what we would like to expect in June and certainly more summery.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of June 2024 at 4:48pm

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

After a record-breaking May across the UK. Yes, it was the warmest (although I prefer the word mildest) on record and this was also the case for my dataset of weather records dating back to August 2012. I know it is only a small dataset but when you look at the average temperature and especially the nighttime temperatures you can see why.

There seems to be most of the general public who do not believe the statistics for May 2024. But what you’ve got to think about is why the statistics are doubted by many.

May 2024 was a cloudier month than normal, so during the daytime it didn’t feel warm on most days due to the lack of sunshine. Any kind of sunshine, regardless of temperature, in May feels warm to very warm due to the time of year. Cloudy nights meant very mild nights and it was these mild nights that lifted the average temperature value for May 2024 into record-breaking territory. And as you’re aware, most don’t notice the nighttime temperatures as they’re sleeping. Very warm sunny days can mean clear nights and nighttime temperatures into single-figures in May, even with localised ground-frosts but May 2024 was cloudier and much milder overnight. Again this is clear in the data.

The coldest night was only +7.4°C and we only had 9 nights below 10°C.

The average temperature overall for May 2024 here was 14.1°C which beats previous Mays easily.

We also had 6 days where the temperature was 21-24°C. Not many remember that. 12 days were 19°C or above, which is above the maximum average.

We also had more dry days than wet days and apart from a very wet day (33.6mm) the other 30 days’ total rainfall was below average. Hard to believe.

So what made May 2024 so disappointing and forgetful: The lack of sunshine which is noticeable by many of us more than anything else.

June is poor so far and will likely be our first below-average temperature month for a long time. I do think some heat is coming; whether this be late on in June or early-July, remains to be seen.

Thursday: A chilly start. Any early brightness fades as cloud thickens from the west and the breeze picks up. Rain will arrive around mid-afternoon. We’ll now have a southwesterly airflow so temperatures up a little but with that rise comes moisture. Max 16°C Min 12°C

Friday: Sunny spells and showers. The showers most frequent into the afternoon, and some heavy with hail and thunder. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Low pressure firmly in charge.

Saturday: A day of bright spells to start with hefty thundery showers brewing. Catch one and it will be a downpour. Lighter winds and in any sunshine it will feel pleasant and warm. UV levels are high as always at this time of the year. Max 17°C Min 11°C

Sunday: The low pressure drifts a little further north so it’s a bit breezy, especially later. Otherwise, rinse and repeat. Bright spells and beefy showers. Risk of hail and thunder. Max 17°C Min 10°C

Outlook: Low pressure(s) close by. The warm bright spells and showery theme will continue. Temperatures around average, 17-19°C. If you see “heatwave on the way” in the media. Ignore.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 12th of June 2024 at 5:55pm.

Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Apologies for no weekly blog over the last two weeks. A busy schedule meant time was limited. I’m back this week with a full 4-day forecast and an outlook after a very wet and miserable Wednesday.

Thursday: The low pressure responsible for Wednesday’s deluge will still be anchored across the UK and this will continue to bring spells of rain throughout the day. It will become patchier into the evening and it will be breezier than recently. Max 13°C Min 11°C

Friday: The low beings to fill but it will still mean a disappointing day with mostly cloudy skies and some showers at times. Muggy with lighter winds. Brighter spells later on are possible. Max 15°C Min 10°C

Weekend: Much warmer but still showery.

Saturday: Sunny spells and with only the outside chance of a shower as cloud bubbles during the day, it’s a much-improved day. Feeling much warmer too. Max 20°C Min 13°C

Sunday: A weakening weather-front will mean a cloudier Sunday looks likely with bright spells and some heavy showers, which could be thundery. Max 18°C Min 10°C

Bank Holiday Monday: A ridge of high pressure will mean a day of warm sunny spells developing after early showers decay. Max 18°C Min 11°C

Outlook: A ridge of high pressure means it doesn’t stay around for long, so back to a theme of sunshine and showers with perhaps some longer spells of rain at times, especially after Tuesday. It will be a west or southwesterly air-flow so remaining on the average side in terms of temperature and a little humid at times.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 22nd of May 2024 at 5:37pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & Netweather Radar.

Hi all,

I don’t know about you but I’m glad to get April out of the way. It will go down for a lack of sunshine but also for how wet it was in the first half of the month especially. You’d think it was colder-than-average but this was down to the cloudy and windy days and below average sunshine hours. Temperatures actually came out at around average.

Despite the poor temperatures, the sun is now gaining strength and is as strong as August, with the UV levels soon stepping up into the high category. So when we do have sunny days and you are out and about, take note, it does not have to be very warm or hot for you to get sunburnt.

Thursday: After a calmer day on Wednesday, Thursday will be a windy day once more. The north-easterly breeze will not be as cold as it normally is, as it is sourcing air from the warmer continent to the south-east. It will however, drag some cloud in from the east which will be slow to clear, but it should break and it should be a decent day with some warm sunny spells sheltered from the wind. There’s a chance that a few eastern areas could hang on to some stubborn cloud. In sheltered spots and the further west you are, we will likely reach 20°C. Max 19°C Min 11°C

Friday: After a dry start, cloud will increase from the south and we are expecting some pulses of rain to arrive which could be quite heavy and thundery. With the cloud and rain it will be cooler especially in the breeze. Max 16°C Min 10°C

Long Weekend: Could be worse. Sunday perhaps the best day. Staying on the warmish side.

Saturday: Likely to start off cloudy with a few showers or spots of rain/drizzle. Slowly, as we head into the afternoon, some brighter spells should drift up as cloud clears from south to north. Max 16°C Min 9°C

Sunday: Sunny spells are expected after early mist and cloud slowly lifts. A slight breeze into the afternoon but with more in the way of sunshine temperatures will lift a little and it will feel pleasant but some home-grown showers threaten for later. Max 17°C Min 10°C

Bank Holiday Monday: Some uncertainty this far out, but it looks like low pressure will begin to develop across the UK, albeit quite slack. This means relatively light winds and apart from the odd bright spell, we’re expected to grow some beefy slow-moving showers into the afternoon which could be thundery. Max 17°C Min 9°C

Outlook: Low pressure to take control of the weather then possibly drift away to the North Sea. Unfortunately, high pressure that was looking like it might build across the country, will only build out into the Atlantic, meaning we will be in a showery airflow with west to north-westerly winds and temperatures remaining around the same. So, in any drier spells with sunshine, pleasant enough but equally some showers.

Small hint that high pressure will drift in later in the week. No sign of any heatwave or “summer blast” as the media keeps reporting but if the high pressure builds then temperatures can slowly rise, day-on-day, but how high all depends on the direction of the wind.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks as ever for reading. I hope you find my weekly blogs useful.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 1st of May 2024 at 4:55pm.

Images: Met Office, BBC Weather & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Busy this week so the blog will be short and sweet.

After more rain this week, and some autumnal weather on Monday, bringing strong winds, 20mm of rain, hail & thunder, the weather is slowly but surely becoming more settled and drier but it’s not a smooth passage. Rain is still in the forecast but the high pressure mentioned last week is coming to our shores to dominate for the weekend. As said on a few X posts, it’s not going to be days upon days of wall-to-wall sunshine nor is it going to be that warm. 

Before all that, tonight will be frosty. So gardeners beware.

Thursday: A cold and frosty start for those up early. Sunny spells won’t last too long though as cloud will thicken from the northwest as an area of low pressure topples over the top of the Atlantic high. So patchy rain for the afternoon and lasting into the evening. Temperatures below average. Max 10°C Min 7°C

Friday: A cold-front will have moved south so cooler air across the region and a steady northerly breeze. Bright spells on offer though and it is expected to be mostly dry. Max 10°C Min 3°C

Weekend: High pressure on top of the UK.

Saturday: The position of the high pressure is crucial and the way it is positioned this weekend means there will be colder air lurking to the east. So west is best in shelter for higher temperatures. Overall dry with sunny spells, cloudier in the east at times. Max 13°C Min 5°C

Sunday: It looks set to be cloudier than Saturday as we drag in a northeasterly airflow and with it stubborn areas of cloud. This will make it feel cool. Any brightness further west. Can’t rule out cloud thick enough for drizzle on the tops. Max 13°C Min 6°C

Outlook: It would only take the high to drift a little further east for temperatures to be 3 to 4 degrees higher. But, as we enter the working week it looks like the high will drift back west allowing the northerly wind to return bringing colder air again. That said, plenty of dry weather up to midweek then it becomes uncertain; mostly likely outcome is the high drifts away and unsettled showery conditions return.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 17th April 2024 at 7:37pm

Images: http://www.metrocentre.com & http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

April has started as what seems to be the norm these days with yet more rain, unsettled conditions and named-storms. We have already had 98% of the average April rainfall in the first third of the month. It’s been relentless and we are still yet to see a dry day this month.

As I said last week, it’s got to end sometime. So are we on the cards for a beautiful May? At this stage looking to mid-month and just after, there isn’t any concrete signs of it settling down, apart from the chance of an area of high pressure building. We are getting the odd warmer day and when the sun’s out it does feel very pleasant indeed but the rain keeps coming.

Having the odd dry day here and there is not good enough. We need a prolonged dry spell and I mean at least 10 days or our gardens will continue to look like this.

Thursday: A very mild start with temperatures into double-figures. A morning of some bright or sunny spells and dry. Cloud tending to increase into the afternoon. We will have a warmer airflow, southwesterly, which will be gusty at times but it will lift the temperatures to the late-teens. So despite the breeze it will feel quite warm. Max 18°C Min 11°C

Friday: There might have been some rain overnight as a warm-front brings thicker cloud and this will leave a legacy of cloud which looks set to hang around for most of the day. Unfortunately it might be thick enough at times for some drizzle. Still mild and breezy but not as warm. Some bright spells are possible later in the day. Max 16°C Min 11°C

Weekend: Cooler and showery as low pressure moves in to dominate.

Saturday: It’s looking like a day of sunshine and showers. Some of the showers, mostly into the afternoon, will be blustery and possibly heavy with hail and thunder. Cooler air filtering in as the day wears on. Max 14°C Min 6°C

Sunday: Another day of sunshine and showers but hopefully the showers will become more scattered into the afternoon to allow more sunny spells to filter through. Feeling cool though, especially in the breeze. Max 11°C Min 5°C

Outlook: Cool or even feeling cold early next week with showers. Less cold as the week goes on but showers seem to remain, but, some models are showing settled weather later in the week. It’s over a week away so I’m not holding my breath.

Follow @ChadWeather on X for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday 10th April 2024 at 4:40pm

Images: BBC Weather, @lauraloo_1988 on X & http://www.wxcharts.com.