The first week of July has been disappointing with spells of showers and temperatures below-average but not a lot of rain has fallen (5.6mm). Our environment certainly needs rain, after the first 6 months of the year had 5 months with below-average rainfall. February being the exception.
Things are about to heat up, albeit slowly, as high pressure creeps in from the Azores. The high, this week so far, has given us cool and often cloudy conditions on a north-westerly airflow. During the weekend and into the following week it looks likely that the position of the high will be more favourable, allowing warmer air to be dragged in. How hot we get is still not certain. It depends on the high’s location and also how long it hangs around for. With very little rain on the way and drying ground, and increasing sunshine, temperatures will rise day-by-day.
The past few days has been an eye-opener when it comes to scanning the temperature forecast, with some crazy temperatures being “predicted” for mid-July. Earlier this week, for southern parts of the UK, 41°C was being output. This is very unlikely to occur but the computer models are still outputting extreme heat for mid-July, with it likely to get into the 30s across the southern half (mostly SE) of the UK and occurring over several days. One thing to certainly note, is the lack of rainfall.
Remember UV is still high at this time of the year, regardless of the temperature.
Thursday: After a mild night, it will be a mostly cloudy but slightly warmer day, as we start an upward trend on the thermometer. Still that north-westerly airflow though. Brighter skies expected as the afternoon progresses. Max 19°C
Friday: Cloud drifting in from the north-west at times, some brightness here and there. Warm in any sunshine. Max 19°C
Weekend: More in the way of sunny spells after cloudy starts. Warmer.
Saturday: Cloudy with sunny spells developing. Pleasantly warm with a mostly gentle breeze. Max 20°C
Sunday: Sunny spells and dry. A little warmer once more. Max 22°C
Outlook: High pressure to dominate. Lots of dry weather and sunny spells. If temperatures do become hot, then we could have a few home-grown thunderstorms to look out for. I would expect to see 24-27°C across the region during the first half of the week with temperatures into the 30s down south. As I mentioned, how high the mercury rises and how long the heatwave lasts is still uncertain and it all depends on the location of the high and its airflow. Some humid and muggy nights to come and evenings watering the garden.
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Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of July 2022 at 6:45pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.metoffice.gov.uk