Hi all,

Winter, meteorologically-speaking is here. We ended Autumn as we start Winter, with below-average temperatures and with the weather set in a pattern. A huge high pressure across eastern Europe, originally building over Scandinavia is controlling our weather. When this happens, we can drag in cloud off the still relatively warm North Sea and hence have days on end of little change. The doom and gloom can come in the form of fog/low-cloud especially with little wind and with any brightness to the west or even as far west as the coast. We are currently in this predicament but slight changes are on the way.

Thursday: Similar to recent days. A lot of cloud, low-cloud on the hills, mostly overcast and cold. That said temperatures could be a degree of two up on recent days. Max 7°C

Friday: A slight easterly breeze in place with plenty of cloud being dragged in from the North Sea. The cloud could be thick enough at times for the odd patch of drizzle first-off. As the day progresses, little change but perhaps the odd bright spell to the west. Max 6°C

Weekend: Slowly colder with the breeze picking up leading to a windchill and showers possible.

Saturday: Generally cloudy with a raw easterly breeze. Mostly dry with any lucky spots seeing limited brightness, mainly to the west. Dry but the odd shower may occur. Max 5°C

Sunday: Overcast with a keen wind and cold with a feels-like temperature of 0°C. Can’t rule out an isolated shower which would be wintry on the tops of the Pennines. Max 5°C

Outlook: Very little change for the next couple of days but after that does look interesting as there’s the potential for high pressure to build towards Greenland and low pressure over Scandinavia which will allow for a cold northerly airflow to develop, straight from the Arctic. Nothing extremely cold but cold enough for a few snow showers, even to lower-levels. Temperatures look set to remain below-average with the risk of wintry showers increasing. The second week of December could see a battlefield developing. Will milder air push in from the south-west or could it turn much colder from the east; not exactly what we need with energy prices! Watch this space.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 30th of November 2022 at 7:50pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

The typical autumnal weather continued over the past week with further rain taking the month total to 95mm. The recent pattern is set to continue then a few models are hinting at a drier, more settled start to December with a possible cold spell with frost and fog on the horizon.

Thursday: A bright start with some sunny spells. Winds will increase, locally 35mph later, as cloud thickens from the southwest. A band of rain, some heavy will move through the region during the afternoon. Showers follow later. Max 9°C

Friday: Not a bad day with sunny spells after morning-showers fade away. Windy though. Max 10°C

Weekend: Rain returns but milder.

Saturday: Any brightness fading as cloud thickens into the afternoon. Rain will arrive later and it will bring with it milder air from the south-west. Windy. Max 11°C

Sunday: Early rain clears to a mostly cloudy picture and the odd scattered shower. Breezy. Max 11°C

Outlook: Becoming cooler again with temperatures around or perhaps just below average. Some rain or showers at first but high pressure is favourable to build in and settle things down; so becoming drier and with some frost and fog where skies clear. Beyond that there are a few hints of a cold easterly or north-easterly airflow setting up which could deliver the first cold spell of winter. For now though, as always, it’s too far away to confirm.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 23rd of November 2022 at 6:30pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

A very mild but mobile outlook as bands of rain push north-east over the next few days, with brighter skies following on behind. Timings of these areas of rain will change over the coming days so look out for updates on Twitter.

Not only will the daytime maximum temperatures be above-average, we will have mild nights. Once we enter November, temperatures start to return to more nearer to normal, as winds swing westerly, perhaps north-westerly at times.

Thursday: Showery rain will move through during the morning. The afternoon will consist of bright spells and a few showers. Windy but not as gusty as Wednesday. Very mild. Max 17°C

Friday: Another windy day and with temperatures into the mid-teens. Sunny spells and showers are likely again, some heavy and more frequent during the morning. Max 16°C

Weekend: Little change.

Saturday: Cloudy with a spell of rain easing into the afternoon but staying particular overcast. Very mild and breezy. Max 17°C

Sunday: At this stage Sunday looks drier as we are sandwiched between rain out west and to our east. A strong southerly wind but a little cooler, signs of things to come. Bright spells at times. Max 15°C

Outlook: It looks like it will turn even more unsettled with several areas of low pressures which could be quite deep bringing the risk of gales and perhaps a named-storm. Generally it will become cooler with temperatures back into the 11-13°C range.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of October 2022 at 7:15pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

It’s likely to stay on the mild side as we go through the latter stages of the second month of autumn as winds generally come from a moist source. Tuesday was a beautiful day, cold and fresh to start, locally 3°C and lovely and warm {in the sunshine} during the day. Sitting out for my lunch felt so warm. None of that luxury over the coming weeks as showers seem to dominate.

Thursday: Less windy but generally cloudy with some patchy rain out west and localised downpours to the east, chance of thunder and lightning. Risk of some heavier rain for a time before it turns showery and then drier and brighter later in the day. Mild. Max 15°C

Friday: Low pressure in charge, anchored to the south-west of the UK. A fresh breeze again with bright spells and after a dry start showers will push north-east, some heavy with thunder. Mild for the time of year. Max 16°C

Weekend: Fewer showers?

Saturday: After a cloudy start any showers should begin to fade and it turns drier with bright or sunny spells. Still breezy and mild. Max 16°C

Sunday: A nagging easterly wind and bright spells for the morning. Uncertainty for the afternoon with the chance of some rain developing to our south-west and moving in later. A bit cooler. Max 14°C

Outlook: The working week looks set to be quite mobile with low pressure parked out in the Atlantic, driving spells of showery rain across the country for most, if not all of the week. Again, some downpours will contain hail and thunder. With a south-westerly airflow temperatures are set to be above average with overnight frosts unlikely.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of October 2022 at 7pm.
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

September’s stats are in and finally a month where the total rainfall was not below-average. September is definitely a month of change and it’s feeling a lot more autumnal now and we have more rain to come after a wet start to October.

Thursday: Sunny spells for the morning but cloudier for the afternoon as an area of showers moves in. Drier into the evening. Windy. Max 15°C

Friday: A band of rain will move south-east followed by bright spells and showers. Breezy. Max 14°C

Weekend: Drier with a ridge of high pressure.

Saturday: Overall not a bad day. Dry with bright or sunny spells. Not as windy as recently. Max 15°C

Sunday: Bright start with cloud increasing. Patchy rain arriving during the evening. Max 14°C

Outlook: Drier start to the working week with another ridge of high pressure but limited amounts of sunshine. More unsettled during the week as bands of showery rain return. Temperatures above-average and windy at times.

September 2022 Stats

Max 22.5°C (5th)
Min 2.9°C (28th)
Av. 13.5°C
Wettest 25mm (30th)
Av. Humidity 82%
Av. Barometer 1014.0 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 94.2mm (average)
Rain Registered Days 17
Dry Days 13

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of October at 5:30pm.

Hi all,

The weekly blog is back this week and with it news of unsettled weather as the Jet Stream returns across the UK. September is definitely the month of change and another grass-frost this morning, signalling the trend to much cooler weather compared to only a few weeks ago. That said, milder air is on the way but plenty of rain and wind to go with it.

Thursday: A fresh start with sunny spells but cloud will soon increase. Breezy but warmer than recently. Bright spells continue into the afternoon with the chance of a fleeting shower. Chilly night. Max 16°C

Friday: A large area of low pressure will anchor to the northwest of the UK and dominate the weather. Cloud thickening quickly, and any brightness fading as heavy rain sweeps in from the west during the morning. Winds increasing later to gust locally to 40mph. The rain will turn showery into the evening. Max 14°C

Weekend: Autumnal but improvements.

Saturday: Windy with frequent showers which could be thundery with hail. Bright spells in between. Feeling fresh and gusty during showers. Max 13°C

Sunday: Showers continuing for most of the morning but these will ease and become more scattered into the afternoon. Still windy. Max 14°C

Outlook: Maximum temperatures staying in the mid-teens. Mixed conditions with bright spells and showers. Nothing significantly cold or warm. Ground-frosts unlikely.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 28th of September 2022 at 5:10pm
Image: www wxcharts.com

Hi all,

Remember, for the latest forecasts and warnings, follow @ChadWeather on Twitter. When our weather is unsettled forecasting is tricky, so always keep an eye on Twitter for any updates.

Thursday: After a bright start with some sunny spells clouds will bubble up and with low pressure close by, heavy thundery showers will break out again. Risk of hail. Max 20°C

Friday: Cloudier and the area of low pressure that has dominated the UK’s weather since the start of the week will slip east and start to fill slightly. As it does so, there will be a fresh north to north-easterly wind and showers will develop again. Max 19°C

Weekend: Low pressure moves into Europe allowing a brief ridge of high pressure to slip in.

Saturday: Lighter winds and drier with bright or sunny spells. With more brightness around it will feel warmer. Chance of an isolated shower towards evening but most dry. Max 19°C

Sunday: The ridge of high pressure will be squeezed away as the remnants of ex-Hurricane Danielle will drift towards the UK. So a cloudier day with winds increasing from the south-east and becoming quite gusty. Showery rain for the latter half of the day or more likely, overnight. Humidity increasing. Max 20°C

Outlook: Little change. Showers or bands of rain, perhaps thundery at times and temperatures around normal. Bright spells too. So far, Autumn is making up for that decent summer.

August 2022 Stats

Max 30.4°C (12th)
Min 8.5°C (6th)
Av. 17.6°C
Wettest 13.6mm (2nd)
Av. Humidity 73%
Av. Barometer 1019.0 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 38mm (well below-average)
Rain Registered Days 10
Dry Days 21

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 7th of September 2022 at 7:20pm

Hi all,

Apologies for no weekly blog last week. I had some family-time away in the Cotswolds. Back this week with some good news as high pressure brings us a settled period of weather, perfect timing for a Bank Holiday weekend. Temperatures will be pleasant and still feeling very warm in the sunshine.

UV levels are no longer HIGH, but MEDIUM, which is still strong enough for you to get sunburnt easily without sun-cream between 11am and 2pm.

Thursday: Fresher air has arrived so we lose the muggy and humid conditions that we’ve had this week. Early cloud will eventually break to a dry day with sunny spells. Max 21°C

Friday: Sunny spells for the morning. A band of cloud will arrive into the afternoon which just might be thick enough to give some patchy rain to the west, but the main thinking is most will stay dry. Max 20°C

Weekend: High pressure takes charge and temperatures rising a touch. Depending on the location of the high pressure we might sneak into the mid-20s for Bank Holiday Monday.

Saturday: Sunny spells and pleasant with warmer temperatures. A bit of cloud will bubble up here and there meaning we have the low risk of an isolated shower, especially towards the hills. Max 22°C

Sunday: Very similar to Saturday. Perhaps the sunshine turning hazy. Max 23°C

Bank Holiday Monday: A slight northeasterly breeze but plenty of dry weather and warm sunny spells once more. Even though the high pressure has drifted away a little it is still in charge. Max 23-25°C

Outlook: It seems that the high pressure will hold for most of the week but with a northeasterly airflow temperatures will range from 19-22°C. Plenty of dry weather, local shower possible. Again, a shift in wind direction could easily lift temperatures. More unsettled by the weekend looks on the cards but it could be short-lived with another high pressure following .

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 24th of August 2022 at 7:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

Hi all,

Last month was the driest July in England since 1935 according to the data collated by the Met Office. I mentioned numerous times that we were on for well below-average rainfall and even though we ended the month with 11 consecutive days of measurable rainfall, we only saw 38% of the average. August has started with two days of rain and a total of 16mm already. But, despite a few showers, the main trend now is to much drier conditions once more and warmer temperatures into next week.

Some computer models are certainly hinting at a heatwave returning from the second week of August and perhaps lasting 7-10 days, especially in southern (mostly SE) England. I did post a chart on Twitter the other day to show that a model predicts 40°C again. Of course this is an outlier and very unlikely, or in my own words last time, “will never happen”. My thoughts are again very similar, I can’t see it happening but with temperatures into the 30s looking likely once more, never say never.

It’s been a muggy few days but we are slowly slipping into fresher air now and the next few days will see temperatures below-average but I’ll take that as it will be matched with brighter skies and drier weather. Before today we have seen welcome rainfall deliver 46mm on 13 consecutive days.

Thursday: Fresher air under a north-westerly airflow. Morning-showers move through quickly leaving a breezy day with sunny spells and a few scattered showers. Max 19°C

Friday: A similar day. No humid air so pleasant in the sunshine as we see a day of bright spells and isolated showers. Most staying dry. Max 18°C

Weekend: Slowly warmer with high pressure building.

Saturday: Perhaps disappointing cloud amounts at times, limiting the amount of sunshine but dry and bright. Max 18°C

Sunday: Sunny spells and warmer. Slight breeze, again from the north-west so not feeling humid. Max 21°C

Outlook: A lot of dry weather with high pressure in control. The position of the high and the wind-flow will be important and determine how quickly temperatures rise. Temperatures expected to be in the early-20s with the chance of them creeping into the mid-20s later in the week. The warmth could introduce more in the way of humid air and this could set off an isolated home-grown shower, otherwise warm and dry.

July 2022 Stats

Max 36.6°C (19th)
Min 9.7°C (16th)
Av. 17.0°C
Wettest 10mm (24th)
Av. Humidity 75%
Av. Barometer 1021.2 hPa
Max Gust 21.9mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 35mm (38% of av.)
Rain Registered Days 15
Dry Days 16

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest weather forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 3rd of August 2022 at 5:50pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Hi all,

As a weather enthusiast, that was an exciting few days to witness the hot plume of air bring us the promised boiling but short-lived (thankfully!) heatwave. Records looked set to be smashed and they were, nationally and locally as the UK hit 40°C for the first time ever. When we will see those kind of temperatures again I wonder? The heatwave had all the perfect ingredients to fuel astonishing temperatures. It’ll happen again, and maybe sooner than you think, but for now, that was the Perfect Sauna and personally it wasn’t pleasant.

New National Records

NW England Extremes (official) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

NW England Maximum Temperatures (unofficial sites) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

NW England Highest Minimum Temperatures (unofficial sites) on Tuesday 19th July 2022

New Records at Chadderton HQ

Highest Daytime Maximum: 36.6°C (19/07/2022)
Highest Night-time Minimum: 22.6°C (night of 18/07/2022)
Highest Temperature Recorded between 6pm & 6am: 28.5°C (19/07/2022)

For now we’re back to normal values, but we are still experiencing very low rainfall totals (only 5.6mm for July). So far we have had 6 out of the 7 months of 2022 with lower-than-average rainfall. The environment needs rain, clearly highlighted with the amount of wildfires seen this week.

Thursday: Generally cloudy with a chance of some light patchy rain or drizzle. A lucky few will see bright spells into the afternoon but still we can’t rule out a shower. A warm night. Max 20°C

Friday: Cloudy with a weak weather-front across the region. Today was looking promising a few days ago but not now with showers likely, perhaps thundery, so the odd heavy shower but not the widespread rain we need. Max 18°C

Weekend: Low pressure approaching but temperatures rising.

Saturday: A brief ridge of high pressure leading to a dry morning with plenty of sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up into the afternoon and showers will feed in on a warm south-westerly wind, gusty at times. Humid. Max 22°C

Sunday: Bright spells and showers, risk of a thundery one as low pressure takes control. Warm or very warm in any sunshine and muggy but fresher later/overnight as a cold-front moves through. Max 23°C

Outlook: Fresher and still showery on Monday and breezy. High pressure to build, Tuesday to Thursday, so plenty of dry and quite warm weather with sunny spells. Looks like this will slip away for the weekend allowing showery conditions to return. Temperatures just below average or around average.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 20th of July 2022 at 8:47pm
National Records & NW England Extremes: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk