Showery, mild & windy – Thursday 27th October 2022 – Sunday 30th October 2022

Hi all,

A very mild but mobile outlook as bands of rain push north-east over the next few days, with brighter skies following on behind. Timings of these areas of rain will change over the coming days so look out for updates on Twitter.

Not only will the daytime maximum temperatures be above-average, we will have mild nights. Once we enter November, temperatures start to return to more nearer to normal, as winds swing westerly, perhaps north-westerly at times.

Thursday: Showery rain will move through during the morning. The afternoon will consist of bright spells and a few showers. Windy but not as gusty as Wednesday. Very mild. Max 17°C

Friday: Another windy day and with temperatures into the mid-teens. Sunny spells and showers are likely again, some heavy and more frequent during the morning. Max 16°C

Weekend: Little change.

Saturday: Cloudy with a spell of rain easing into the afternoon but staying particular overcast. Very mild and breezy. Max 17°C

Sunday: At this stage Sunday looks drier as we are sandwiched between rain out west and to our east. A strong southerly wind but a little cooler, signs of things to come. Bright spells at times. Max 15°C

Outlook: It looks like it will turn even more unsettled with several areas of low pressures which could be quite deep bringing the risk of gales and perhaps a named-storm. Generally it will become cooler with temperatures back into the 11-13°C range.

Areas of low pressure look set to dominate next week. How deep these lows are, is yet to be determined.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 26th of October 2022 at 7:15pm.
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

A showery and breezy outlook – Thursday 20th October 2022 – Sunday 23rd October 2022

Hi all,

It’s likely to stay on the mild side as we go through the latter stages of the second month of autumn as winds generally come from a moist source. Tuesday was a beautiful day, cold and fresh to start, locally 3°C and lovely and warm {in the sunshine} during the day. Sitting out for my lunch felt so warm. None of that luxury over the coming weeks as showers seem to dominate.

Thursday: Less windy but generally cloudy with some patchy rain out west and localised downpours to the east, chance of thunder and lightning. Risk of some heavier rain for a time before it turns showery and then drier and brighter later in the day. Mild. Max 15°C

Risk of heavy rain: An area of heavy rain will develop over south-east England on Thursday but some models track it more towards our region.

Friday: Low pressure in charge, anchored to the south-west of the UK. A fresh breeze again with bright spells and after a dry start showers will push north-east, some heavy with thunder. Mild for the time of year. Max 16°C

Weekend: Fewer showers?

Saturday: After a cloudy start any showers should begin to fade and it turns drier with bright or sunny spells. Still breezy and mild. Max 16°C

Sunday: A nagging easterly wind and bright spells for the morning. Uncertainty for the afternoon with the chance of some rain developing to our south-west and moving in later. A bit cooler. Max 14°C

Outlook: The working week looks set to be quite mobile with low pressure parked out in the Atlantic, driving spells of showery rain across the country for most, if not all of the week. Again, some downpours will contain hail and thunder. With a south-westerly airflow temperatures are set to be above average with overnight frosts unlikely.

The final third of October looks wet to very wet across most of the UK, especially out west.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 19th of October 2022 at 7pm.
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

A decent Thursday but rain will return – Thursday 13th October 2022 – Sunday 16th October 2022

Hi all,

Autumnal conditions continue with more rain today, albeit patchy. It’s certainly been a wet start to October, with the monthly total already up to 35mm. There’s little in the way of anything settled and sunny for a prolonged period on the horizon, so you’ll have to make the most of some sunshine on Thursday.

Thursday: A decent day as we avoid weather systems. Sunny spells, light winds and feeling pleasant. Max 15°C

Friday: Strong and blustery westerly winds bringing a few showers/showery rain at times. Hopefully some sunny spells and drier conditions to end the day. Max 13°C

Weekend: Jet Stream back in charge. Unsettled and feeling cool at times.

Saturday: Windy with showers continuing as clouds bubble up during the day. Again, some of these showers could be heavy and thundery and winds will be gusty when they arrive. Max 13°C

Low pressure in charge brings showers aplenty on Saturday

Sunday: Little change. If anything a little less windy and showers perhaps more scattered, especially later. Cool. More general rain overnight and into Monday morning.  Max 12°C

Outlook: Hard to see anything but limited bright spells and showers as low pressure stays out to our west/south-west and in control of our weather. Nights are now looking mild as we keep a south-westerly airflow. Temperatures back up into the mid-teens early on but overall we will tend to see around average maximum temperatures for the time of year.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 12th of October 2022 at 4:10pm
Image: http://www.wxcharts.com

Better for the Weekend – Thursday 6th October 2022 – Sunday 9th October 2022

Hi all,

September’s stats are in and finally a month where the total rainfall was not below-average. September is definitely a month of change and it’s feeling a lot more autumnal now and we have more rain to come after a wet start to October.

Thursday: Sunny spells for the morning but cloudier for the afternoon as an area of showers moves in. Drier into the evening. Windy. Max 15°C

Friday: A band of rain will move south-east followed by bright spells and showers. Breezy. Max 14°C

Weekend: Drier with a ridge of high pressure.

Saturday: Overall not a bad day. Dry with bright or sunny spells. Not as windy as recently. Max 15°C

Sunday: Bright start with cloud increasing. Patchy rain arriving during the evening. Max 14°C

Outlook: Drier start to the working week with another ridge of high pressure but limited amounts of sunshine. More unsettled during the week as bands of showery rain return. Temperatures above-average and windy at times.

September 2022 Stats

Max 22.5°C (5th)
Min 2.9°C (28th)
Av. 13.5°C
Wettest 25mm (30th)
Av. Humidity 82%
Av. Barometer 1014.0 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 94.2mm (average)
Rain Registered Days 17
Dry Days 13

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks for reading as always.

Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 6th of October at 5:30pm.

Turning wet and windy – Thursday 29th September 2022 – Sunday 2nd October 2022

Hi all,

The weekly blog is back this week and with it news of unsettled weather as the Jet Stream returns across the UK. September is definitely the month of change and another grass-frost this morning, signalling the trend to much cooler weather compared to only a few weeks ago. That said, milder air is on the way but plenty of rain and wind to go with it.

Thursday: A fresh start with sunny spells but cloud will soon increase. Breezy but warmer than recently. Bright spells continue into the afternoon with the chance of a fleeting shower. Chilly night. Max 16°C

Friday: A large area of low pressure will anchor to the northwest of the UK and dominate the weather. Cloud thickening quickly, and any brightness fading as heavy rain sweeps in from the west during the morning. Winds increasing later to gust locally to 40mph. The rain will turn showery into the evening. Max 14°C

A lively low brings heavy rain and gusty winds on Friday, especially into the afternoon and evening.

Weekend: Autumnal but improvements.

Saturday: Windy with frequent showers which could be thundery with hail. Bright spells in between. Feeling fresh and gusty during showers. Max 13°C

Sunday: Showers continuing for most of the morning but these will ease and become more scattered into the afternoon. Still windy. Max 14°C

Outlook: Maximum temperatures staying in the mid-teens. Mixed conditions with bright spells and showers. Nothing significantly cold or warm. Ground-frosts unlikely.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 28th of September 2022 at 5:10pm
Image: www wxcharts.com

Plenty of dry weather but turning cooler with the chance of a ground-frost – Thursday 15th September 2022 – Sunday 18th September 2022

Hi all,

So far in September (up to the 14th) we’ve had 50mm of rain, so already passing the previous 3 months of summer’s individual monthly totals. Autumn is making up for that decent summer but we now enter a dry spell once again, which could last over a week and it will start to feel chilly.

**UV levels are now down to MEDIUM (4) between 12pm-2pm**

After some sunny spells earlier this week, cloudier conditions and cooler air is set to arrive.

Thursday: Fresh start then a dry day with a north-westerly breeze and sunny spells. Cloud bubbling up during the day. Max 16°C Min 7°C

Friday: High pressure out to our west, so plenty of dry weather with variable cloud feeding down from the north-west on a cool and gusty breeze with sunny spells. Cool but pleasant enough in the sunshine and sheltered from the wind. Cold night ahead with the chance of ground-frost in rural spots. Max 15°C Min 4°C

Colder air from the north arrives during Friday.

Weekend: Cloudier second-half.

Saturday: The fresh north-westerly airflow continues and cloud will increase after a bright morning. Dry. More in the way of cloud overnight so not as cold. Max 15°C Min 8°C

Sunday: The high pressure will have drifted a little bit further east, so the wind should not be as strong. Cloudy day expected with some breaks here and there. Feeling cooler with less in the way of brightness. Max 14°C Min 7°C

Outlook: High pressure to hang around for a few more days, so little change. It will then drift away later in the week, allowing for a steady south-westerly breeze to pick up, dragging in cloud with the odd patch of rain but most will stay dry. Temperatures will recover a little but no sign of a late summer-burst on the horizon!

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Note: There will be no blog next week as I’m off to Spain for a golfing holiday. Forecast tweets will continue and maybe the odd Spanish photo or two ;).

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 14th of September at 5:35pm.

Drier and More Settled Weekend before ex-Hurricane Danielle – Thursday 8th September 2022 – Sunday 11th September 2022

Hi all,

Remember, for the latest forecasts and warnings, follow @ChadWeather on Twitter. When our weather is unsettled forecasting is tricky, so always keep an eye on Twitter for any updates.

Thundery showers have passed through the region this week.

Thursday: After a bright start with some sunny spells clouds will bubble up and with low pressure close by, heavy thundery showers will break out again. Risk of hail. Max 20°C

Friday: Cloudier and the area of low pressure that has dominated the UK’s weather since the start of the week will slip east and start to fill slightly. As it does so, there will be a fresh north to north-easterly wind and showers will develop again. Max 19°C

Weekend: Low pressure moves into Europe allowing a brief ridge of high pressure to slip in.

Saturday: Lighter winds and drier with bright or sunny spells. With more brightness around it will feel warmer. Chance of an isolated shower towards evening but most dry. Max 19°C

Sunday: The ridge of high pressure will be squeezed away as the remnants of ex-Hurricane Danielle will drift towards the UK. So a cloudier day with winds increasing from the south-east and becoming quite gusty. Showery rain for the latter half of the day or more likely, overnight. Humidity increasing. Max 20°C

Outlook: Little change. Showers or bands of rain, perhaps thundery at times and temperatures around normal. Bright spells too. So far, Autumn is making up for that decent summer.

August 2022 Stats

Max 30.4°C (12th)
Min 8.5°C (6th)
Av. 17.6°C
Wettest 13.6mm (2nd)
Av. Humidity 73%
Av. Barometer 1019.0 hPa
Max Gust 27.6mph
Av. Wind Direction W
Rain 38mm (well below-average)
Rain Registered Days 10
Dry Days 21

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 7th of September 2022 at 7:20pm

Start of Autumn to bring rain, thunderstorms and wind – Thursday 1st September 2022 – Sunday 4th September 2022

Hi all,

I think it’s safe to say that Summer 2022 was decent. Plenty of dry weather with very warm sunny spells and a lot of settled conditions. Most notable was the record-breaking July heatwave (36.6°C) and the well below-average rainfall. We also had much more warmer evenings than usual and even a nice August (normally a bad month). With it being settled we did lack in thunderstorm activity but we could well see some action over the coming week.

Summer 2022 delivered only 39% of the average rainfall.

June 2022 31.6mm (av. 79mm)
July 2022 35mm (av. 92mm)
August 2022 38mm (av. 95mm)

Meteorological autumn starts on Thursday and we’ll squeeze in another decent day but then it’s all about low pressure and an unsettled theme. Exact timings and the finer details of the coming days will change, so always look out for updates on Twitter.

As is the nature of showers, some areas will see more rain than others but the general overall thinking is; 40-50mm of rainfall is likely in the first 10 days of autumn. These totals could be higher in some spots if we see some torrential thundery showers develop.

Up to 2 inches (50mm) of rain expected during the first 10 days of September. That’s about half of what we received throughout the whole 3 months of summer.

Maximum UV levels are now down to medium between 10am-3pm.

Thursday: Low pressure is beginning to develop to the west of the UK but it won’t influence us just yet. So another mostly dry day with warm sunny spells. Outside chance of a shower later, especially over the hills. Winds still quite breezy. Max 22°C

Friday: The low will creep closer and a squeeze in the isobars will mean another breezy or even windy day. Sunny spells and feeling warm but isolated beefy showers are expected later in the day. Max 21°C

Weekend: Turning more unsettled.

Saturday: A showery day, some likely to be thundery as the atmosphere becomes more unstable. There could well be a band of more persistent rain strewn across the region but the location of this at this stage is uncertain. Breezy. Max 20°C

Sunday: Bright spells, especially to start, then heavy and again possibly thundery showers will develop and becoming widespread. These showers could well be more focused to the south and west. Still feeling quite warm in any sunshine but like previous days it will be windy. Max 20°C

Over the weekend and into early next week low pressure to our southwest will be pushing bands of heavy showers north-eastwards across the region

Outlook: Low pressure remaining pretty much in charge with spells of bright spells and showers, some beefy with thunder and lightning. It will tend to become a little cooler as the week goes on with maximum temperatures back into the teens.

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 31st of August 2022 at 1:15pm
Images: http://www.wxcharts.com

Sunny spells, mostly dry and warm but no heatwave expected – Thursday 25th August 2022 – Bank Holiday Monday 29th August 2022

Hi all,

Apologies for no weekly blog last week. I had some family-time away in the Cotswolds. Back this week with some good news as high pressure brings us a settled period of weather, perfect timing for a Bank Holiday weekend. Temperatures will be pleasant and still feeling very warm in the sunshine.

UV levels are no longer HIGH, but MEDIUM, which is still strong enough for you to get sunburnt easily without sun-cream between 11am and 2pm.

Thursday: Fresher air has arrived so we lose the muggy and humid conditions that we’ve had this week. Early cloud will eventually break to a dry day with sunny spells. Max 21°C

Friday: Sunny spells for the morning. A band of cloud will arrive into the afternoon which just might be thick enough to give some patchy rain to the west, but the main thinking is most will stay dry. Max 20°C

Weekend: High pressure takes charge and temperatures rising a touch. Depending on the location of the high pressure we might sneak into the mid-20s for Bank Holiday Monday.

Saturday: Sunny spells and pleasant with warmer temperatures. A bit of cloud will bubble up here and there meaning we have the low risk of an isolated shower, especially towards the hills. Max 22°C

Isolated showers possible this weekend but a lot of dry weather with hazy sunny spells.

Sunday: Very similar to Saturday. Perhaps the sunshine turning hazy. Max 23°C

Bank Holiday Monday: A slight northeasterly breeze but plenty of dry weather and warm sunny spells once more. Even though the high pressure has drifted away a little it is still in charge. Max 23-25°C

Outlook: It seems that the high pressure will hold for most of the week but with a northeasterly airflow temperatures will range from 19-22°C. Plenty of dry weather, local shower possible. Again, a shift in wind direction could easily lift temperatures. More unsettled by the weekend looks on the cards but it could be short-lived with another high pressure following .

More unsettled for the opening weekend of September?

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 24th of August 2022 at 7:05pm.

Images: http://www.wxcharts.com & http://www.theweatheroutlook.com

7-day heatwave to end early next week with a risk of thunderstorms – Thursday 11th August 2022 – Monday 15th August 2022

Hi all,

Well well well. Another heatwave. August normally disappoints, and OK there is still time left for August to be wet and miserable for the latter part of the month, but the next 5 days are set to be hot and increasingly humid after maximum temperatures reached 25°C on Tuesday and have risen since. Temperatures will make it into the 30s but it will not be as hot as the heatwave of July.

An amber weather warning for extreme heat is in force for Thursday to Sunday – issued by the Met Office

**UV levels are still HIGH (6/7) mostly between 12pm-2pm**

Nights will be warm and a little uncomfortable for sleeping but with relatively low dew points and humidity (until later in the weekend) it could have been a lot worse.

Thursday: The heatwave is in control now, as is high pressure, slam bang across the country bringing a hot day with plenty of sunshine. If you do head to the coast there will be some sea breezes. Max 30°C Min 17°C

Friday: Little change. Hot and sunny with a slight breeze from the east to north-east. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Weekend: More heatwave conditions.

Saturday: Yep, you guessed it another hot and sunny day with a breeze picking up. Max 31°C Min 17°C

Sunday: Sunny spells with cloud bubbling up during the day; the sign of change. This will be the first signs of a breakdown to the current heatwave as low pressure drifts up from the south. Chance of some thundery showers breaking out later in the day but very isolated. Muggy. Max 31°C Min 18°C

Monday: A cooling theme with scattered thundery showers breaking out. Sunny spells in between. More bearable temperatures but it will be humid as fresher air will slowly arrive on Tuesday. Max 25°C

Outlook: A cooling trend as the weather turns showery with the high slipping away to the east and low pressure coming up from the south or south-west. Locally some hefty downpours and finally some relief from what was a prolonged dry and hot spell of weather. Temperatures returning to around normal values, max 20°C, with the Atlantic driving our weather during the latter part of the week.

The heatwave begins to break: Hit-and-miss thundery showers on Monday

Follow @ChadWeather on Twitter for the latest forecasts and warnings.

Thanks,
Jon

Forecast Issued: Wednesday the 10th of August 2022 at 3:05pm
Images: Met Office and http://www.wxcharts.com